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Cardiff Capital Region


The Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) is a in southeast encompassing ten local authorities—, , , , , , , , , and —centered on the national capital of . Home to approximately 1.5 million residents, or nearly half of ' population, it represents the most urbanized and economically dominant area in the country.
Established to foster collaborative , the CCR operates through a City Deal ratified in 2017, committing £1.2 billion over 20 years from public and private sources to infrastructure, transport enhancements like the , skills training, and business support initiatives. This agreement between the UK Government, , and the ten authorities aims to generate up to 25,000 jobs, leverage £4 billion in additional investment, and elevate the region's global competitiveness by prioritizing sectors such as compound semiconductors, green energy, and digital innovation.
The region's economy, driven by and as core cities, has undergone regeneration from its industrial heritage in the , now focusing on high-value manufacturing, , and that contributes £2.5 billion annually. Governance occurs via a Regional and investment board, emphasizing data-driven decisions to address disparities between urban centers and valleys communities while pursuing sustainable growth.

Composition and Demographics

Principal Areas

The Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) consists of ten local authority areas in south-east Wales: Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Torfaen, and Vale of Glamorgan. These administrative boundaries encompass a diverse geography spanning inland valleys, coastal zones, and urban concentrations. Cardiff, the Welsh capital, forms the primary urban core with its administrative area covering 139 square kilometres along the coast. serves as the secondary city hub, situated eastward along the coastal corridor. The remaining areas include the post-industrial valleys of , , , , and ; the coastal and rural and ; and the more affluent, semi-rural bordering . Population distribution across the CCR totals approximately 1.5 million residents, with denser concentrations in the urban centers of and , moderate densities in coastal and valley towns, and sparser rural settlements in areas like . This arrangement reflects a mix of former mining valleys, seaside developments, and metropolitan expansion, bounded roughly by the to the north and the to the south.

Population and Economic Indicators

The Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) has a population of 1.5 million, accounting for nearly half of Wales's 3.1 million residents as estimated for mid-2023. This figure spans ten local authorities, with comprising approximately 362,400 residents per the 2021 census, or about 24% of the regional . The working-age population (aged 16-64) forms the majority, supporting a labor force oriented toward urban and commuter dynamics, though projections indicate modest stagnation in the 16-44 cohort through mid-2025 absent migration offsets. Demographic trends reflect a youthful profile, particularly in , where the average resident age stands at 34.5 years, declining due to inflows of migrants, students, and young families seeking alternatives to higher-cost areas like . Ethnic diversity exceeds Welsh norms, with 20.8% of 's identifying as non-white in the 2021 census, compared to Wales's 6.2%; Asian groups constitute the largest minority at 9.7%. Inward net has driven recent , with high population churn in student-heavy areas contributing to a 3.4% annual increase in alone from mid-2022 to mid-2023. Economically, the CCR produces roughly 50% of Wales's (GVA), positioning it as the country's primary economic hub despite figures lagging UK averages at around £35,300 in recent benchmarks. rates across constituent authorities averaged 3.2% to 3.9% in 2023, below the rate of 4.0%, reflecting resilient labor demand amid post-pandemic recovery. rates hover near 75% for the working-age group, bolstered by commuter patterns into , though economic inactivity stands at 17.8% regionally, aligned with levels.
Key IndicatorCCR ValueComparison
Total Population (mid-2023 est.)1.5 million~48% of total
GVA Share of ~50%Dominant regional contributor
Unemployment Rate (2023)3.2-3.9%Below avg. of 4.0%
Ethnic Diversity (, 2021)20.8% non-whiteAbove avg. of 6.2%

Historical Development

Pre-2016 Regional Initiatives

The economic challenges in during the and stemmed primarily from the protracted decline of traditional industries, particularly and steel production in the Valleys, which had employed large portions of the workforce until the 1980s. By the , output had contracted significantly, with the Valleys experiencing net outward migration of approximately 2,000 residents annually amid factory closures and a pivot toward a service-oriented centered on . This structural shift exacerbated and underinvestment in peripheral areas, prompting initial calls for coordinated regional responses to leverage 's growing financial and administrative roles without relying on fragmented local efforts. In response, the Economic (SEWEF) was established in 1998 as a voluntary among local authorities, businesses, and stakeholders to foster economic strategy development. The aimed to commission , debate , and promote a unified vision of as a competitive region, focusing on skills enhancement and inward to counter deindustrialization's legacies. However, its achievements remained modest, hampered by limited private-sector engagement and overlapping with national Welsh Development Agency initiatives, reflecting broader difficulties in achieving scalable, market-driven growth akin to more privatized city-region models like . Parallel to economic forums, transport coordination emerged as a pragmatic area of pre-2010 collaboration through the South East Wales Transport Alliance (SEWTA), formed by the ten local authorities to address connectivity deficits hindering regional cohesion. SEWTA's efforts culminated in the 2010 Regional Plan, which outlined long-term strategies for integrating , bus, and networks to support economic flows between and the Valleys, driven by recognition that isolated local plans failed to mitigate post-industrial isolation. These initiatives underscored a causal imperative for regionalism—stemming from geographic interdependence and shared infrastructure needs—but yielded incremental rather than transformative outcomes, underscoring the constraints of public-led coordination absent robust private investment.

City Deal Establishment (2016)

The Cardiff Capital Region City Deal was formally signed on 15 March 2016 by representatives of the UK Government, Welsh Government, and the ten local authorities comprising the region, marking a devolved agreement to catalyze economic development in south-east Wales. The deal established a £1.2 billion investment program, primarily channeled through the Cardiff Capital Region Investment Fund, with contributions of £500 million each from the UK and Welsh governments, supplemented by up to £495 million in borrowing by the local authorities, to be repaid from anticipated growth in business rates and other revenues. This structure reflected first-principles incentives for leveraging public capital to attract private investment, targeting up to 25,000 new jobs by 2036 alongside £4 billion in additional private sector leverage, driven by the need to address regional disparities in a post-2008 recession UK economy where growth had concentrated in London and the south-east. Core pillars of the deal emphasized high-value sectors and to exploit the region's comparative advantages, including the of a global compound semiconductor cluster building on existing capabilities in , the rollout of the Metro system via electrification of valley lines to enhance connectivity, and the formation of a Cardiff Capital Region Skills and Employment Board to align with employer needs. These initiatives prioritized assets such as for logistics and the ports at and for trade, aiming to integrate transport, innovation, and human capital in a causally coherent framework for agglomeration effects. The underlying rationale stemmed from empirical economic realities: prior to 2016, ' gross value added (GVA) per head stood at approximately 74% of the average, with south-east exhibiting slower productivity growth relative to national trends amid post-recession recovery, constrained by devolved governance limits on local fiscal autonomy and borrowing. The Government's city deal model sought to counterbalance London's dominance by devolving and to underperforming regions, while Welsh devolution's grant-dependent necessitated central to enable borrowing against future growth, bypassing rigid allocations without undermining national rebalancing objectives. This approach privileged causal mechanisms like infrastructure-enabled labor mobility and sector-specific clustering over generalized subsidies, though local authorities' commitments highlighted risks of over-optimism in projected returns given historical GVA stagnation in peripheral Welsh areas.

Evolution to Corporate Joint Committee (2024 Onward)

In April 2024, the Cardiff Capital Region transitioned from a non-statutory City Deal partnership to integration within the Corporate Joint Committee (SEWCJC), a established under comprising the leaders of the ten local authorities. This shift endowed the CJC with formal powers previously absent in the ad-hoc arrangement, including statutory responsibilities for developing a Regional Plan to coordinate cross-boundary mobility and a Strategic Development Plan to guide and economic growth across the region. The , rooted in the Local Government () Act 2021 and subsequent regulations, aimed to enhance regional collaboration by centralizing certain functions, thereby reducing fragmented local decision-making on issues like infrastructure investment and land-use strategy. Leadership evolved from the informal Regional Cabinet—consisting of the ten council leaders—to a formalized structure under the CJC, with enhanced business advisory mechanisms to incorporate input on priorities such as and . This structure maintains council leader representation but introduces statutory , including joint overview and scrutiny committees to monitor performance. The change implies a between centralized efficiency for regional-scale projects and potential dilution of distributed local authority control, as powers over transport franchising and consents are pooled, prompting debates on democratic legitimacy given the CJC's indirect to voters. Key post-formation milestones underscored the CJC's investment focus, including its presence at MIPIM 2025, where it showcased £15 billion in opportunities spanning , digital infrastructure, and initiatives to attract global capital. In July 2025, the region secured at least £30 million from the UK Government's Local Innovation Partnerships Fund to target sectors like life sciences, , and green energy, enabling localized R&D acceleration aligned with regional strengths. These developments signal the CJC's role in leveraging statutory status for funding leverage, though empirical outcomes remain contingent on effective inter-authority coordination amid fiscal constraints.

Governance and Administration

Organizational Structure

The South East Wales Corporate Joint Committee (CJC), functioning as the Cardiff Capital Region, is led by an apex body composed of the elected leaders from its ten constituent local authorities, who collectively exercise strategic decision-making powers akin to those of local councils. This structure originated in the 2016 City Deal, which established a non-statutory of council leaders to coordinate regional initiatives, later formalizing into the CJC under regulations in 2024, thereby granting statutory status while incorporating greater alignment with national policy directives. Subordinate entities include the City Deal Programme Board, comprising strategic directors and subject experts with chief executives invited to participate, tasked with monitoring project delivery and resource allocation. The Joint Overview and Scrutiny Committee (JOSC), formed by one substantive and one deputy non-executive member per authority, scrutinizes CJC actions and proffers recommendations to enhance accountability. Sector-focused advisory groups provide input without veto authority, such as the Cardiff Capital Region Skills Partnership addressing workforce needs and energy strategy implementation bodies advancing decarbonization efforts. Business-led mechanisms, exemplified by panels supporting the semiconductors through initiatives like CSconnected, integrate expertise into but remain consultative in nature. The multi-tiered arrangement, balancing local leadership with specialized sub-groups, has intensified involvement post-2016 compared to the deal's initial funding-driven dynamics, fostering coordinated governance across authorities while necessitating inter-entity alignment for effective execution.

Powers and Decision-Making Processes

The Corporate Joint Committee (SEWCJC), which institutionalizes the Cardiff Capital Region as of its 2022 statutory establishment and 2024 operational expansion from prior City Deal arrangements, holds devolved powers centered on strategic , including the coordination of cross-boundary , , and land-use policies via a mandatory Strategic . Regional planning constitutes a core function, incorporating oversight of integrated systems such as the rail and bus network to enhance across the ten unitary authorities. The CJC also advances economic well-being, encompassing the development of strategies focused on decarbonization, , and regional sustainability initiatives. Decision-making authority vests primarily in the CJC itself, comprising the elected leaders of the constituent unitary councils, who exercise functions through the Regional Cabinet. This body convenes approximately quarterly—evidenced by meetings on dates including 18 March 2024, 4 December 2023, and 9 October 2023—to review, amend, and ratify strategic plans, annual budgets, and policy frameworks, guided by principles of merit, , and . Public consultations form an integral procedural element, as seen in stakeholder engagements for the Regional Transport Plan, enabling input from residents and businesses prior to final adoption. A Joint Overview and Committee, meeting publicly four times annually, affords secondary oversight by examining cabinet decisions and ensuring alignment with regional objectives. Procurement processes under these powers have revealed execution vulnerabilities, as in the 2025 Aberthaw demolition case, where the CJC awarded a £40 million deemed procedurally unlawful by the due to inadequate evaluation of bids, prompting a conceded of £5.25 million to the aggrieved firm Brown and Mason Group. This episode, adjudicated in early 2025, exposed gaps in regional tender compliance despite delegated authority, with total costs escalating beyond initial estimates amid litigation. Relative to English combined authorities, which often contend with district-municipal fragmentation and incorporate directly elected mayors for enhanced , the SEWCJC leverages Wales's unitary council structure to expedite consensus on devolved competencies like and , thereby averting inter-tier disputes but amplifying reliance on council leader negotiations. This configuration curtails veto fragmentation inherent in England's multi-level models yet heightens susceptibility to , as unelected regional aggregation of local leader inputs may prioritize supra-local agendas over discrete constituency mandates without intermediate electoral checks. Such tensions underscore causal frictions between devolved regional autonomy—empowering unified strategies—and overriding regulations or national procurement standards, which impose uniformity potentially at odds with localized implementation needs.

Economic Framework

Core Sectors and Strategic Investments

The Cardiff Capital Region prioritizes sectors with established market demand and technological competitive advantages, including compound semiconductors, , and life sciences. Compound semiconductors, leveraging and related materials for applications in and , form a cornerstone through the CSconnected initiative funded by the Strength in Places Fund, which established as a dedicated cluster with research facilities at and manufacturing investments. The cluster, one of the UK's largest outside , encompasses over 1,300 media firms, with approximately 600 concentrated in , supporting production for broadcasters like and ITV Wales. Life sciences efforts focus on medtech and diagnostics, with initiatives like Cardiff Edge aiming to develop specialized innovation sites drawing on regional biotech firms and research capabilities. Strategic investments under the 2016 City Deal allocate £1.23 billion over 20 years to and sector growth, including equity funds like the £50 million Innovation Investment Capital targeting scale-up firms in high-potential areas. in rose 23% year-on-year in the 2024-25 financial year, securing 65 projects, many aligned with these sectors and facilitated by regional incentives. Private sector involvement underscores market viability, with multinational firms like establishing cyber security analytics centers and collaborative R&D programs such as Endeavr Wales, which pairs SMEs with aerospace innovation needs. Cardiff's and financial services hub attracts relocations and expansions, capitalizing on cost advantages relative to while building on clusters. However, critics contend that heavy dependence on public seed capital from City Deal and UKRI sources risks distorting private incentives in a region with historically lower inflows, potentially prioritizing subsidized projects over purely commercial opportunities.

Performance Outcomes and Empirical Assessments

The Cardiff Capital Region City Deal, valued at £1.2 billion, has progressed toward full investment by 2025, with approximately half of its £495–500 million deployed or in active deployment through an structure aimed at long-term returns. This includes targeted equity investments in sectors like , supporting specific project accelerations in the latter half of 2024–25. Job creation under the has underperformed relative to initial targets, generating only 1,537 positions as of September 2025—far below the scale anticipated when agreed nearly a decade prior—despite broader employment rates reaching 74.6% for ages 16–64 in the year ending December 2023, up from prior years. metrics show , with the as a primary , attracting 65 projects in the 2024–25 financial year, a 23% year-on-year increase, though attribution to the deal specifically remains partial amid competing regional claims. The Senedd Finance Committee's September 2025 review highlighted delays and risks in delivery, paralleling issues in growth deals, with procurement failures exemplified by a £5.25 million over the Aberthaw Power Station demolition contract, plus additional legal costs exceeding £6 million in total. These shortfalls prompted calls for enhanced oversight, as optimistic progress reports from deal leads contrasted with empirical lags in outcomes like job targets. Gross value added (GVA) per capita in city has outpaced the average historically, reaching levels around 102% of the national figure in core areas like and the as of recent assessments, yet the broader region exhibits stark internal disparities, with Valleys locales at approximately 55% of the average, contributing to Wales-wide GVA trailing by structural margins. Regional GVA growth since 2009 stands at 13%, exceeding some city regions like but lagging peers with stronger productivity drivers, underscoring causal constraints from uneven leverage and policy-induced frictions beyond deal investments.

Infrastructure Developments

Transport Systems

The constitutes the primary transport initiative within the (CCR), involving over £1 billion in investments for , new tram-trains, and enhanced frequency services across the valleys and Cardiff area. Originally announced with £600 million in 2015 to avert transport "chaos," the project has seen costs escalate, with the contributing £445 million alongside funds and City Deal allocations, aiming for turn-up-and-go operations on electrified lines by phases extending into 2024 and beyond. Core enhancements include track upgrades, station modernizations, and integration of heavy with elements, projected to connect key employment hubs but facing delays due to engineering complexities and funding reallocations. Broader network improvements encompass and connectivity, though the scrapped M4 relief road proposal—estimated at £2 billion—has drawn criticism for perpetuating congestion bottlenecks around , with commuters reporting persistent gridlock as of 2023 despite alternatives like grids being advocated. The Welsh Government's 2019 decision to abandon the relief road, citing environmental and cost concerns, has been challenged by business advocates for undermining regional economic attractiveness, as the existing experiences unreliable journey times exacerbated by tidal traffic flows. Port-related expansions at remain limited in scope, with infrastructure focus primarily on access rather than terminal , aligning with CCR's emphasis on metro-led shifts over heavy freight augmentation. Empirical outcomes reveal mixed results, with pre-2020 projections of reduced and modal shift unverified amid post-pandemic ridership declines; train usage in the CCR dropped 98% during peaks, recovering unevenly while bus patronage fell 30.6% from 2004-2019, higher than averages. Cardiff's levels exceed those in comparable cities, potentially amplifying public transport's relative appeal but highlighting shortfalls in Metro delivery against initial claims of transformative capacity gains. Cost-benefit analyses from early studies emphasized long-term operational savings through , yet actual phased rollouts have prioritized core valleys lines over comprehensive network integration, with ongoing evaluations needed to assess net economic returns versus overruns.

Energy and Sustainability Projects

The Cardiff Capital Region has advanced energy initiatives through CCR Energy, which in June 2024 announced plans to establish a pioneering testing facility for low-head, bi-directional turbines in collaboration with a newly formed Consortium. This facility aims to deploy advanced turbines suited to the region's lower heads, building on the Severn Estuary's exceptional range of up to 15 meters, which positions it among the world's highest for extraction. The region's 2021 Energy Strategy, commissioned by the Welsh Government, establishes baselines for renewable integration, prioritizing local ownership of generation assets and alignment with net-zero goals through diversified sustainable projects. In May 2025, CCR pursued cross-border proposals for a Severn Estuary tidal lagoon with the West of England Combined Authority, seeking to harness the estuary's estimated 8-12 gigawatts of tidal range potential despite UK government withdrawal of core funding for regional partnerships in the October 2024 budget. Engineering assessments underscore viability challenges, including high upfront capital costs for tidal infrastructure—often $280 per megawatt-hour for commercial projects—far exceeding dispatchable fossil fuel options like , which benefit from established and on-demand reliability. output, though predictable via lunar cycles, requires subsidies to offset and integration needs, with flexible models forecasting limited baseload contributions without costly backups. These dependencies highlight causal trade-offs: while avoids fuel volatility, its demands and environmental impacts, such as altered flows, have historically stalled large-scale deployment relative to proven alternatives.

Education and Skills Ecosystem

Higher Education and Research Hubs

The Cardiff Capital Region features prominent higher education institutions, anchored by , a member with approximately 33,000 enrolled students representing over 150 countries as of 2025. Complementary providers such as (11,445 students in 2023/24) and the bolster the regional ecosystem, yielding a collective student base exceeding 70,000 and supporting to local industries. Cardiff University drives R&D through targeted innovation partnerships, evidenced by its fourth-place ranking in a 2023 UK assessment of university spin-out performance, which evaluates the conversion of academic research into viable companies. In 2025, the institution aligned with a £30 million in southeast innovation, channeled via the Cardiff Capital Region to amplify research translation and regional economic linkages without relying solely on public subsidies for causal impact. Outputs include spin-out firms in areas like for online harm detection and social sciences applications, mirroring mechanisms in elite clusters like where concentrated expertise generates verifiable spillovers via private-sector adoption rather than institutional prestige alone. In , the Compound Centre exemplifies a specialized research hub within the world's first dedicated compound , facilitating spillovers through prototyping, skills development, and supply-chain integration. This initiative secured Innovation and Prototype Funding in and subsequent expansions, including a £51 million infusion into Wafer Fab in November 2024 for enhanced fabrication and a March 2025 design centre to build domestic chip sovereignty. Empirical spillovers manifest in firm relocations, such as KLA's $138 million facility opened in May 2025, yielding skilled employment and technology diffusion grounded in material advancements rather than policy rhetoric.

Workforce Training Initiatives

The Cardiff Capital Region Skills (CCRSP), established to coordinate regional skills development, published its and Skills for 2022-25 in November 2022, aiming to address labor market shortages through targeted interventions including bootcamps and apprenticeships in priority sectors. The emphasizes seven key areas—digital technologies, net zero transitions, advanced manufacturing, , health and social care, , and —to build talent pipelines via academy models, intensive bootcamps, and industry-education collaborations. For instance, bootcamps focused on , , cybersecurity, and digital skills have been rolled out since 2023, often in partnership with local colleges and employers to deliver short-term, high-intensity training aligned with private-sector demands. Persistent post-industrial skills mismatches in the , where learner qualifications often fail to align with high-growth occupations, have driven these initiatives, as evidenced by analyses showing discrepancies between outputs and employer needs in sectors like and . By 2025, upskilling efforts are projected to intensify for emerging demands in integration and advanced , responding to broader economic shifts away from legacy industries, though empirical data on long-term remains sparse, with regional graduate retention rates as low as 21% compared to higher benchmarks in neighboring areas. Employer feedback, gathered through ongoing surveys, highlights the need for greater private-sector input to ensure , yet critiques point to oversight limiting regional flexibility, as centralized curricula prioritize broad vocational frameworks over localized, employer-driven customization, potentially exacerbating mismatches. While retention has reached 80% in select programs since 2018, overall metrics on post- and progression lack comprehensive, independently verified tracking, underscoring gaps in evaluating program efficacy against causal economic outcomes.

Controversies and Critiques

Accountability and Scrutiny Deficiencies

In July 2020, stakeholders raised significant concerns regarding the scrutiny mechanisms for the Capital Region's £1.2 billion City Deal investment package, highlighting a perceived lack of and democratic oversight in its administration. Mark Hooper, founder of firm Indycube and a regional figure, described a "" stemming from the structure's reliance on a joint committee of local authority leaders without direct public mandates for regional-scale decisions, potentially insulating expenditures from local voter . The transition to the Corporate Joint Committee (CJC) in amplified these issues, as the body—comprising leaders from ten local authorities—exercises powers including strategic borrowing without elected positions tailored to regional governance, fostering detachment from constituent proximity. An review of Welsh regional structures noted apprehensions among local representatives that CJCs could engender a by centralizing authority in unelected inter-municipal forums, where decisions on multi-billion investments occur at arm's length from direct electoral checks. Critics have pointed to the CCR board's composition as exacerbating opacity, with voting members drawn from a of political leaders and private-sector elites—such as representatives from sectors like and —granting unelected influences over public funds without commensurate scrutiny protocols. This setup, inherited from the City Deal era, has fueled 2020-era debates on regionalism's erosion of local , where aggregated dilutes granular to individual councils and voters, as evidenced in consultations proposing co-opted members to mitigate deficits but falling short of full . Proponents of the CJC model contend it enhances regional efficiency by streamlining decisions across fragmented local entities, yet empirical assessments reveal persistent risks, including unscrutinized borrowing capacities that could burden local taxpayers without proportional oversight, as reported incomplete operations across CJCs in 2023, underscoring foundational gaps in accountability frameworks.

Delivery Failures and Economic Underperformance Claims

A Senedd inquiry conducted by the Economy, Trade, and Rural Affairs Committee in 2025 highlighted significant under-delivery in the Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) City Deal, noting delays and shortfalls in meeting economic targets despite nearing full investment of its £1.2 billion allocation. The committee expressed "serious concerns" about the performance of Welsh growth deals, including CCR, warning that some risk failing to deliver promised economic benefits and could become an unchecked drain on public finances without enhanced oversight. Specific critiques included procurement failures and optimistic projections that have not materialized, with the inquiry urging both UK and Welsh governments to address these gaps. The Aberthaw Power Station exemplifies delivery delays and cost overruns, where purchased the site for £8.6 million but faced a £5.25 million in June 2025 after a ruled that the demolition contract award was unlawful due to procedural errors. This dispute arose from a legal challenge by a losing bidder, Brown and Mason Group, exposing flaws in processes that led to taxpayer-funded payouts and stalled progress. The committee heard evidence that full site could exceed £1 billion, far beyond initial estimates, amid ongoing risks from and regulatory approvals in ' devolved framework. Economic underperformance claims center on the gap between promised outcomes and actual trajectories, such as the City Deal's target of 25,000 new jobs over 20 years, with only 1,537 jobs created by mid-2025 according to committee scrutiny—far below expectations nearly a decade after the 2016 agreement. (GVA) growth, aimed at a 5% regional uplift, has shown modest increases but lags comparative English city deals in leveraging private investment and productivity gains, with critiques attributing shortfalls to slower rollout and devolved regulatory hurdles rather than inherent regional deficits. While reports some returns, such as £19.1 million in investment yields by 2024/25 and foreign direct investment attractions, these are offset by the inquiry's findings of insufficient job leverage and GVA per capita remaining below averages, underscoring causal mismatches between ambitious forecasts and empirical delivery amid Wales-specific planning delays.

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