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Fourth Transformation

The Fourth Transformation (Spanish: Cuarta Transformación, abbreviated 4T) refers to the agenda of Mexican President , who upon his inauguration in December 2018 framed his administration as initiating a profound overhaul of the nation's political, economic, and social structures, akin to Mexico's prior historical upheavals of independence from Spain, the 19th-century liberal reforms, and the 1910 Revolution. Central to this project are commitments to eradicate through measures and institutional purges, redistribute resources via expanded welfare programs targeting the , and prioritize national sovereignty in sectors like energy by reversing privatizations and bolstering state-owned enterprises. Proponents highlight achievements such as lifting millions from — with estimates of 13 million during López Obrador's term— substantial minimum wage hikes, and infrastructure initiatives like the railway, contributing to his exit with approval ratings near 80 percent. Critics, however, contend that the transformation has faltered in curbing rampant violence, with homicide rates remaining elevated despite promises of root-cause solutions over militarization; economically, growth has stagnated below historical averages amid policy reversals that deterred investment; and politically, it has centralized power, undermined autonomous institutions, and echoed one-party dominance rather than delivering systemic renewal.

Definition and Ideology

Core Principles and Objectives

The Fourth Transformation, or Cuarta Transformación (4T), is framed by its proponents as a profound ethical and structural overhaul of Mexican governance, rooted in Mexican —a philosophy emphasizing human dignity, family values, community solidarity, and national sovereignty over individualistic or market-driven ideologies. This humanism posits the state as a moral actor prioritizing collective welfare, drawing from historical Mexican traditions and repudiating what advocates describe as the and fostered by prior neoliberal regimes. Central to this framework is the principle of republican austerity, which mandates frugal public spending, elimination of superfluous government perks, and redirection of resources toward direct social assistance, as exemplified by López Obrador's elimination of elite privileges upon taking office in December 2018. Ethical imperatives form the bedrock, with López Obrador consistently invoking three axioms for public officials: do not lie, do not steal, and do not betray the people (no mentir, no robar, no traicionar al pueblo), intended to eradicate systemic and restore eroded by decades of scandals. These are complemented by a commitment to govern "from below and with the people" (desde abajo y con el pueblo), mobilizing participation over top-down , and a moral economy that subordinates profit motives to , rejecting external impositions from international financial bodies. , the ruling party-movement, enshrines these in its foundational documents, describing itself as a left-inspired entity born from social movements to advance humanist principles against oligarchic capture. Objectives center on eradicating and through universal social programs, such as bimonthly pensions for adults over 65 (elevated to constitutional status in , reaching 11 million beneficiaries by September 2023) and scholarships for 11 million students, aiming to lift the most disadvantaged as the first priority (por el bien de todos, primero los pobres). Broader goals include pacifying the nation via non-militaristic security strategies emphasizing youth values and root causes like ; guaranteeing and access without privatization; and fostering economic sovereignty by investing in state-led infrastructure like the and Dos Bocas refinery, while combating impunity through institutional reforms. Proponents claim these measures achieved a historic from 41.9% in 2018 to 36.3% in 2022, though independent analyses attribute part of this to post-pandemic rebounds and question sustainability amid fiscal constraints.

Distinctions from Prior Transformations

The Fourth Transformation, as proclaimed by President upon taking office on December 1, 2018, is posited by its proponents as a continuation of Mexico's historical shifts toward sovereignty and , yet it fundamentally differs in methodology from the preceding three. Unlike the armed insurrections of the War of Independence (1810–1821), which severed colonial ties with through culminating in the 1821 Trigarante Plan; the (1858–1861), a civil conflict enforcing liberal secularization and the 1857 Constitution against conservative clerical forces; and the Mexican Revolution (1910–1920), a decade-long upheaval involving factional armies that produced the 1917 Constitution with agrarian and , the Fourth Transformation emerged via electoral mandate without recourse to violence. López Obrador secured 53.19% of the popular vote in the July 1, 2018, election, enabling the party's congressional majorities to enact changes through legislation and executive decree, reflecting a peaceful absent the mass casualties—estimated at over 600,000 for the Revolution alone—that defined prior eras. Central to these distinctions is the 4T's emphasis on ethical and administrative purification over territorial, ecclesiastical, or socioeconomic restructuring. Prior transformations addressed existential threats: Independence expelled foreign dominion, the Reform era dismantled feudal privileges via expropriation of church lands (totaling 50 million hectares by 1860) and civil marriage laws, and the Revolution redistributed 45 million hectares of land to peasants by 1940 while enshrining resource nationalism in Article 27. In contrast, the 4T prioritizes "republican austerity"—slashing public sector perks, such as eliminating 90% of government-issued credit cards and reducing high-level salaries by up to 40%—to combat corruption, which López Obrador identifies as the perennial saboteur of past gains, funding social programs like universal pensions and scholarships for 11 million beneficiaries by 2024 without new expropriations or constitutional overhauls equivalent in scope. This approach posits a "moral constitution" derived from stoic governance, drawing rhetorically from Hidalgo's austerity and Juárez's integrity, but operationalized through anti-neoliberal policies like rescinding the 2013 energy privatization to bolster state firms PEMEX and CFE, albeit amid their mounting debts exceeding $100 billion by 2023. Critics, including economists and opposition analysts, contend that these distinctions underscore the 4T's limited transformative depth, portraying it as incremental reformism rather than epochal rupture, given persistent institutional continuities and suboptimal outcomes. While prior transformations yielded new foundational documents—the 1824 Constitution post-Independence, the 1857 liberal charter, and the 1917 social pact—the 4T has pursued over 20 constitutional amendments by , such as judicial elections and military-led infrastructure, but without supplanting the 1917 framework or achieving the promised eradication of , as violence claimed over 180,000 lives during López Obrador's term through . Economic indicators further highlight variances: annual GDP growth averaged 0.4% from 2018–2023, hampered by effects and reversals on , contrasting the Revolution's post-1920 stabilization that enabled industrialization. Proponents counter that the 4T rectifies neoliberal deviations since 1982, reducing from 7% to 5.6% via targeted transfers totaling 4% of GDP, yet empirical assessments from sources like the attribute much to pre-existing trends and oil revenues rather than systemic overhaul. This debate reflects the 4T's self-conception as a "third phase" of the Revolution—completing unfinished egalitarian mandates—versus skeptical views of it as populist consolidation preserving underlying power asymmetries.

Historical Precedents

Mexican War of Independence (1810-1821)

The Mexican War of Independence began on September 16, 1810, when Catholic priest Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla issued the Grito de Dolores, a call to arms against Spanish colonial rule from the town of Dolores, Guanajuato. This uprising was precipitated by Spain's political instability following Napoleon's 1808 invasion and the abdication of King Ferdinand VII, which created a power vacuum and fueled Creole (American-born Spanish) grievances over economic exploitation, trade disruptions from European wars, and the 1804 confiscation of church assets to fund Spain's debts. Hidalgo mobilized an army primarily composed of indigenous peasants and mestizos, numbering up to 80,000 at its peak, who captured Guanajuato in September 1810 but committed reprisals against Spanish loyalists, including the massacre of hundreds of peninsulares (Spain-born elites). Early insurgent successes gave way to defeats against professional royalist forces led by Félix María Calleja. In January 1811, Calleja routed Hidalgo's army at the Battle of Puente de Calderón near , where insurgents suffered heavy losses due to poor discipline and armament. On March 21, 1811, royalist officer Ignacio Elizondo ambushed and captured , along with key lieutenants and José María Chico y Larraín, at the Wells of Baján; Hidalgo was defrocked, tried, and executed by firing squad in on July 30, 1811. The initial phase highlighted the insurgents' reliance on mass peasant mobilization but exposed tactical deficiencies, as royalists, bolstered by loyalists and disciplined troops, regained control of central Mexico. After Hidalgo's death, leadership shifted to José María Morelos y Pavón, another priest, who organized a more structured insurgency from southern regions like Oaxaca and Guerrero. Morelos captured key sites including Acapulco in 1813 and convened a congress in Chilpancingo that November, declaring Mexico's independence and drafting a constitution emphasizing republicanism, abolition of slavery, and social equality. His forces, blending guerrilla tactics with conventional battles, inflicted defeats on royalists but faced superior resources; Morelos was captured in November 1815 and executed in Mexico City on December 22, 1815. Insurgents under leaders like Vicente Guerrero persisted through decentralized guerrilla warfare, while royalist counterinsurgency targeted villages, exacerbating divisions between lower-class insurgents and elite Creoles wary of radical social upheaval. The war's resolution came via negotiation rather than battlefield victory. In 1820, liberal revolts in restored the 1812 Constitution, prompting officer —previously a suppressor of insurgents—to defect. On February 24, 1821, Iturbide allied with through de Iguala, which proposed Mexican under a , Catholicism as the , and equality between Europeans, s, and indigenous groups (the "Three Guarantees"). forces largely defected, leading to the entering on September 27, 1821, and the signing of the on August 24, 1821, which formalized separation from . The conflict, marked by brutal reprisals on both sides, resulted in extensive civilian and military deaths, with the insurgency's popular base contrasting reliance on colonial hierarchies, though ultimate preserved much of the existing under dominance.

Reform War and Laws (1857-1861)

The Constitución de 1857, promulgated on February 5, 1857, embodied core liberal reforms by establishing individual rights including , conscience, press, assembly, and petition, while mandating and abolishing and titles of nobility. It incorporated prior measures such as the Ley Juárez of 1855, which eliminated special legal privileges (fueros) for the clergy and military, and the Lerdo Law of 1856, which mandated the disamortization of church-held real estate and indigenous communal lands to promote individual ownership. These provisions aimed to curtail the Catholic Church's economic and political influence, which liberals viewed as a barrier to national modernization and fiscal solvency amid Mexico's post-independence instability. Conservative factions, comprising clergy, landowners, and military elements aligned with traditional hierarchies, vehemently opposed the , viewing it as an assault on authority and social order. In December 1857, President suspended the amid rising unrest, but this move fractured liberal unity; conservatives seized in early 1858, prompting Benito , then Supreme Court president, to assume constitutional leadership from and declare the reforms non-negotiable. The ensuing (also called the Three Years' War), from 1858 to January 1861, pitted liberal republican forces against conservative monarchists, resulting in widespread devastation: battles ravaged central Mexico, conservative general Miguel Miramón's forces briefly dominated the interior, but liberal resilience, bolstered by U.S. recognition and arms shipments after 1859, shifted momentum. Amid the conflict, Juárez's government in Veracruz enacted further Reform Laws to consolidate liberal gains and fund the war effort. In 1859, decrees nationalized all church property, transferring ecclesiastical assets to the state for sale or auction to generate revenue, while instituting civil marriage, divorce, and registries to replace religious sacraments with secular administration. These measures severed church-state entanglement, prohibiting clerical involvement in education and politics, though they exacerbated fiscal strains by alienating conservative financiers and prompting European creditor interventions. Liberals justified the laws as essential for republican sovereignty, arguing that church wealth—estimated at vast landholdings—hoarded resources needed for public welfare and debt repayment. The war concluded with liberal victory on January 10, 1861, when Juárez's forces retook , enforcing the reforms despite an estimated 200,000-300,000 casualties from combat, disease, and famine. This outcome entrenched in Mexico's polity, dismantling colonial-era privileges and paving the way for , though it sowed seeds for foreign via unpaid debts, culminating in the French invasion of 1862. The Reform era's emphasis on dismantling entrenched elite power structures—particularly clerical influence—served as a foundational for subsequent Mexican transformations seeking to redistribute authority toward and state control over resources.

Mexican Revolution (1910-1920)

The Mexican Revolution erupted on November 20, 1910, as a widespread uprising against the authoritarian regime of , who had dominated Mexican politics since 1876 through rigged elections, suppression of dissent, and policies favoring foreign investors and domestic elites at the expense of peasants and workers. Díaz's "" era concentrated land ownership in haciendas, displacing rural communities via laws like the Lerdo Law, while export-oriented growth exacerbated inequality and regional disparities, fueling grievances among the impoverished majority. , a wealthy landowner critical of Díaz's refusal to honor 1910 election promises, issued the Plan de San Luis from exile, nullifying the fraudulent vote and calling for armed revolt, which mobilized diverse factions including northern revolutionaries like and southern agrarian rebels led by , whose Plan de Ayala demanded land redistribution. By May 1911, insurgent forces compelled Díaz to resign and exile himself to France, paving the way for Madero's presidency after interim governance by . However, Madero's moderate reforms alienated radicals; Zapata broke with him over insufficient land seizures, declaring "Tierra y Libertad" and occupying estates in . Tensions culminated in the February 1913 coup known as the Decena Trágica, orchestrated by General , who assassinated Madero and Vice President Pino Suárez on amid army infighting in . Huerta's dictatorship, backed initially by U.S. interests but opposed by Constitutionalists under , Obregón, and Villa's alliance, collapsed in July 1914 after battles like and , leading to the occupation of the capital and the fracturing into Conventionist (Villa-Zapata) and Constitutionalist camps. The ensuing from 1914 to 1920 pitted federal forces against regional armies, marked by atrocities, scorched-earth tactics, and that devastated agriculture and infrastructure across states like and . Key clashes included Obregón's defeat of at in April 1915 using trenches and machine guns, and the 1917 U.S. under Pershing to pursue after his raid on , which highlighted foreign risks. Zapata's forces controlled southern territories until his ambush and death on April 10, 1919, while persisted until surrendering in 1923. Carranza convened a constitutional congress at , promulgating the 1917 Constitution on February 5, which enshrined (Article 3), labor protections (Article 123), expropriation for communal lands (Article 27), and limiting foreign ownership (Article 27), alongside banning re-election (Article 90) to prevent rule. The Revolution's human cost was staggering, with demographic analyses estimating excess deaths of approximately 1.4 million—about two-thirds of a total population loss of 2.1 million when including forgone births and —primarily civilians succumbing to , disease, and indiscriminate violence rather than battlefield combat. Outcomes included the dismantling of Díaz-era elites and the rise of a revolutionary state, though implementation of reforms lagged; land redistribution advanced sporadically under Cárdenas in , while the military's political influence persisted. Carranza's on May 21, 1920, during his flight from Obregón's ended the armed phase, ushering in stabilization under the Sonoran triad but entrenching factional patronage that evolved into the Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) seven-decade hegemony, often diverging from populist origins into bureaucratic control. As a precedent for Mexico's transformative episodes, the Revolution exemplified a rupture against entrenched oligarchy through mass mobilization, yielding a constitution prioritizing social equity and national sovereignty over liberal individualism, ideals later invoked in critiques of post-1980s neoliberal policies that privatized assets and widened inequality without corresponding growth benefits for the majority. Empirical reviews note that while the upheaval averted total economic collapse by curbing foreign dominance, its chaos delayed modernization, with per capita income stagnating until mid-century interventions, underscoring causal trade-offs between radical change and institutional stability absent strong enforcement mechanisms.

Origins and Launch

AMLO's 2018 Election Victory

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, running as the candidate of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) coalition, secured a decisive victory in Mexico's presidential election on July 1, 2018, marking his third attempt after narrow defeats in 2006 and 2012. His campaign emphasized combating entrenched corruption, reducing inequality, and initiating a "Fourth Transformation" of Mexican public life, drawing parallels to the nation's Independence (1810), the Reform era (1857–1861), and the Revolution (1910–1920). López Obrador positioned himself as an outsider challenging the political establishment dominated by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN), capitalizing on widespread disillusionment with outgoing PRI President Enrique Peña Nieto's administration amid scandals like the Odebrecht bribery case and unfulfilled promises on security. Preliminary results showed López Obrador obtaining approximately 53% of the valid votes, translating to over 30 million ballots, far surpassing rivals of the PAN-led (around 22%) and José Antonio Meade of the PRI (around 16%). reached about 63%, reflecting high public engagement driven by frustration over , , and perceived of institutions. The win extended to securing majorities in both chambers of , enabling legislative momentum for promised reforms without immediate dependencies. The election unfolded amid pre-vote violence, with over 130 political candidates assassinated, primarily linked to influence in local races, though presidential balloting proceeded peacefully under observation deeming it free and fair overall. López Obrador's appeal stemmed from empirical failures of prior neoliberal policies, including persistent affecting nearly half the population and rates exceeding 30,000 annually, eroding in traditional parties. Unlike his earlier campaigns tainted by in 2006, 2018 saw no substantiated challenges to the outcome, with opponents conceding promptly. In his victory speech, he pledged austerity in government, for , and a transformation prioritizing the poor, setting the stage for his December 1, 2018, inauguration.

Initial Reforms and Institutional Changes (2018-2019)

Upon inauguration on December 1, 2018, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador issued immediate decrees implementing austerity measures as a core component of the Fourth Transformation, including halving salaries for high-ranking officials earning over one million pesos annually on a progressive basis, prohibiting purchases of new luxury vehicles for government use, eliminating private health insurance and expense accounts for top bureaucrats, and canceling advisory positions and deputy directorships to reduce administrative overhead. These actions aimed to redirect savings toward social programs, generating reported efficiencies through cuts in discretionary spending and perks, though the formal Ley Federal de Austeridad Republicana was proposed later in 2019 to codify such restrictions across the public sector. Concurrently, López Obrador restructured the federal administrative apparatus to streamline operations and eliminate perceived corruption-enabling redundancies, announcing a comprehensive bureaucratic overhaul in July 2018 that reduced the number of federal delegations from hundreds to 32 regional coordinations by October 2018, shifting control to politically aligned coordinators to enhance proximity to local needs and diminish intermediary layers. In November 2018, approved reforms to the Ley Orgánica de la Administración Pública Federal, creating the Secretaría de Bienestar by repurposing the former Secretaría de Desarrollo Social and assigning it direct oversight of social assistance programs, while maintaining an overall cabinet of 19 dependencies with emphases on centralization and desburocratización. This reconfiguration prioritized austerity-driven efficiency over expansion, shrinking the federal workforce initially by limiting hires and advisory roles. A pivotal early policy shift occurred with the cancellation of the Nuevo Aeropuerto Internacional de México (NAIM) in Texcoco, initiated through a non-binding popular consultation held October 25-28, 2018, where approximately 1% of the electorate participated and voted 69% against the project, leading to the government's formal termination announcement on October 29, 2018, and full cancellation by April 2019 despite 30% construction progress and associated bondholder payouts exceeding 100 billion pesos. The decision redirected resources to the at Santa Lucía, framed as rejecting elite-driven infrastructure in favor of fiscal prudence, though critics highlighted economic disruptions including investor uncertainty and debt obligations extending to 2047. In April 2019, approved labor reforms aligning with international standards under the USMCA, mandating secret ballots for union leader elections and verification to curb employer-influenced unions, effective May 1, 2019, as part of broader efforts to empower workers without altering core market structures. These initial changes emphasized executive-led institutional pruning and alternative decision mechanisms like consultations over traditional bureaucratic processes, setting the stage for subsequent policy expansions while preserving macroeconomic stability.

Policy Implementation under López Obrador (2018-2024)

Economic and Fiscal Policies

The economic and fiscal policies of the Fourth Transformation under President prioritized measures to combat perceived and inefficiency in public spending, while redirecting resources toward social programs without introducing broad increases on the general population. These policies avoided major structural reforms, maintaining Mexico's tax-to-GDP ratio at approximately 13 percent, the lowest among countries, and instead relied on expenditure controls and savings from reduced bureaucratic overhead to fund initiatives. López Obrador implemented salary caps for high-level officials, including the president, cabinet members, and justices, and curtailed on non-essential government items, framing these as essential to eliminating "neoliberal" waste. However, this approach drew criticism for underfunding essential services and infrastructure, contributing to stagnant economic expansion. A hallmark policy was aggressive minimum wage hikes, which more than doubled in real terms from about 88 pesos per day in 2018 (roughly $4.75 USD) to 248.93 pesos by 2024 (about $15 USD), with annual increases often exceeding —such as 20 percent in 2024 and cumulative real gains of over 100 percent by mid-term. These adjustments, applied nationally except for higher rates in northern border zones to compete with U.S. wages, aimed to boost domestic and reduce , correlating with reductions from 41.9 percent in 2018 to around 36.3 percent by 2022. Fiscal outlays for social programs expanded significantly, tripling and spending from $8 billion in 2018 to $24 billion in 2023, funding universal pensions for seniors, scholarships for students, and cash transfers to farmers and the disabled. This redistribution supported the bottom income quintiles but shifted resources away from the poorest in some targeted programs compared to prior administrations. Macroeconomic outcomes reflected tempered by pandemic-era expansions: real GDP growth averaged under 1 percent annually from 2018 to , totaling about 4.94 percent over the , falling short of the administration's 4 percent yearly amid low and reliance on consumption-driven . Public debt as a share of GDP rose modestly from 45.6 percent in 2018 to 47.2 percent by 2023, before climbing to 53.3 percent in due to widened deficits—reaching 5 percent of GDP—that financed social outlays without revenue-side overhauls. remained controlled below 5 percent on average, supported by restrained , though critics attribute subdued growth to underinvestment in private sector incentives and regulatory uncertainty rather than external factors alone.

Energy and Resource Nationalism

The energy and resource nationalism policies of the Fourth Transformation sought to reassert state control over Mexico's hydrocarbons, , and critical minerals, framing them as essential to and reversing perceived neoliberal privatizations from the energy reform. Under President , the administration prioritized and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) through regulatory changes that curtailed private sector participation, including halting new auctions for and gas exploration and favoring state firms in electricity dispatch. A constitutional amendment mandated that CFE generate at least 54% of the nation's electricity, positioning it as the dominant entity over private generators, while PEMEX received ongoing fiscal support exceeding $100 billion from 2019 to 2023 to offset operational losses and debt servicing. These measures were justified as restoring public ownership akin to post-1938 nationalization precedents, though critics, including economic analyses, argued they deterred , which fell 85% in the energy sector from 2018 to 2022 levels. Resource nationalism extended to lithium, declared a strategic asset in May 2022 via a mining law reform that reserved all exploration, extraction, and processing to the state-owned Litio para México (LitioMx), prohibiting private concessions. This decree, published on May 23, 2022, aimed to leverage Mexico's estimated 1.7 million tons of lithium reserves—primarily in Sonora—for domestic battery production and export value addition, with initial investments projected at $3 billion for pilot projects. However, by late 2024, LitioMx had yet to commence commercial extraction due to technical challenges and lack of private partnerships, highlighting tensions between nationalist goals and practical development needs. PEMEX's performance underscored mixed empirical outcomes: crude oil production averaged 1.7 million barrels per day from 2018 to 2023, down from 1.9 million in 2018, while net financial debt hovered at $106-107 billion annually, sustained by government infusions that contributed to a record fiscal deficit of approximately $31 billion in 2024. Under President , who assumed office on October 1, 2024, these policies have persisted with refinements emphasizing continuity in state primacy. Sheinbaum endorsed and advanced AMLO's framework by signing a constitutional on January 3, 2025, reinforcing CFE and PEMEX's legal status as public entities with preferential market roles, while pledging to submit further sector to on January 29, 2025, to streamline state operations. Her administration committed to elevating to 45% of the mix by 2030, integrating it within CFE-led projects rather than private initiatives, though private opportunities remain constrained, potentially limiting sector amid PEMEX's ongoing burden of over $100 billion. Empirical assessments indicate sustained production declines and fiscal strains, with PEMEX's 2024 output at around 1.6 million barrels per day, underscoring the trade-offs of against efficiency gains from prior market openings.

Infrastructure and Megaprojects

The Fourth Transformation emphasized infrastructure development through state-directed megaprojects aimed at enhancing regional , energy sovereignty, and in underserved areas, with an estimated total investment of around $18 billion across initiatives as of 2020. These projects were prioritized over private-sector concessions, reflecting a shift toward managed by entities like the military and , though they faced widespread criticism for cost overruns, accelerated timelines, and limited environmental assessments. The , a 950-mile railway traversing the to promote and local economies, began in June 2020 and saw its first section (Campeche to ) open on December 15, 2023, with full operations phased thereafter. Initially budgeted at approximately $8.5 billion, costs escalated to between $20 billion and $30 billion by 2024, representing overruns of 70% to 130%, driven by factors including material price hikes and rushed over sensitive ecosystems like cenotes. Early ridership data indicated only about 5% of projected passengers in the first six months of partial service, raising questions about long-term viability despite government claims of economic stimulus. The Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas, intended to reduce fuel imports and bolster Pemex's capacity to 340,000 barrels per day, was inaugurated in July 2022 after started in 2019, but operational challenges persisted into 2024. Original estimates of $8 billion ballooned to over $16.4 billion by official accounts, with independent analyses citing up to $20 billion due to delays, supply issues, and a three-month shutdown in late 2024 from poor crude quality. President López Obrador claimed in October 2024 that it operated at about 80% capacity, yet reports highlighted intermittent production and failure to achieve full stabilization, undermining goals of import substitution. The (AIFA), built on the site of a former base north of as an alternative to the canceled Texcoco project, opened on March 21, 2022, with two runways and capacity for 15 million passengers annually, expandable to 25 million. costs totaled approximately 74.5 billion pesos (about $3.6-4 billion), exceeding initial projections by around 36% amid oversight and expedited timelines. Traffic remained low post-opening, with projections estimating only 15% cost recovery by 2033 and ongoing subsidies required, as it handled fewer than 10 daily flights initially compared to Mexico City's primary airport. The Interoceanic Corridor of the sought to rival the by upgrading a 188-mile link between Pacific and Gulf ports, with the first line inaugurated on December 22, 2023, as part of a $2.8 billion initiative including 10 planned industrial parks. Government plans targeted $2 billion in coordinated investments over four years from 2020 to spur manufacturing and employment in southern , though progress by 2024 focused on rehabilitation rather than full , with full operational GDP impacts projected for 2033. These efforts aligned with 4T priorities of southeast but encountered hurdles in attracting private investment and mitigating local disruptions.

Security and Anti-Crime Strategies

The security strategy of the Fourth Transformation under President emphasized addressing the socioeconomic roots of through alleviation and programs, rather than direct confrontation with cartels, encapsulated in the slogan abrazos no balazos ("hugs, not bullets"). This approach sought to reduce violence by tackling underlying causes such as and lack of opportunities, with initiatives like the Sembrando Vida agricultural program providing stipends to rural to deter recruitment by . However, implementation involved significant , diverging from initial campaign rhetoric that critiqued prior administrations' reliance on the armed forces. A cornerstone was the creation of the in January 2019 via constitutional reform, intended as a civilian-led force absorbing federal police duties to professionalize and replace the disbanded Federal Police by December 2019. Composed initially of army, navy, and federal police personnel, it grew to over 100,000 members by 2022, tasked with patrolling, intelligence, and migration control, though human rights groups documented abuses including arbitrary detentions. By September 2022, transferred its command to the Ministry of National Defense, formalizing military oversight despite rulings limiting army roles in to temporary deployments until 2024. A 2024 enshrined the as a permanent auxiliary to the armed forces, enabling its involvement in infrastructure projects alongside security duties. Empirical outcomes showed limited success in curbing violence, with intentional rates rising from 29.58 per 100,000 in 2018 to a peak of approximately 33 per 100,000 that year before declining modestly to 24.9 per 100,000 in 2023 and further to 19.3 in 2024, amid over 150,000 s during Obrador's term. Critics, including analysts, attributed persistent dominance to the policy's reluctance to dismantle leadership through targeted operations, allowing territorial expansions and diversification into and fuel , though government data claimed reductions in high-impact crimes like by 2021. Under President from October 2024, the strategy continued with enhancements, including expanded deployment to 170,000 members, bolstered intelligence units, and a focus on prevention through social spending while increasing seizures of drugs and weapons. Homicides reportedly fell 12-25% in her first year compared to late 2024, per official figures, though independent assessments highlight ongoing challenges from cartel fragmentation and judicial reforms potentially weakening anti-corruption efforts. This evolution reflects a pragmatic shift toward greater deterrence and coordination, including U.S.-Mexico bilateral commitments on in 2025, without fully abandoning root-cause interventions.

Social Welfare and Poverty Alleviation

The Fourth Transformation prioritized direct cash transfers to vulnerable populations through the Secretaría de Bienestar, replacing conditional programs like Prospera with unconditional universal schemes to combat and bureaucratic overhead. Key initiatives included the Pensión Universal para Adultos Mayores, providing bimonthly payments starting at 1,275 pesos (about $65) in 2019 for those aged 65 and older, which reached over 11 million beneficiaries by 2024 with annual increases tied to inflation and hikes. Complementary programs encompassed scholarships for 12 million students from low-income families, averaging 1,000-2,400 pesos bimonthly, and pensions for people with disabilities at similar levels, aiming to cover basic needs without work or schooling requirements. Additional efforts targeted rural and youth demographics, such as Sembrando Vida, which paid 5,000 pesos monthly to over 400,000 farmers for planting on idle lands, and Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro, offering 5,055 pesos stipends to 2.3 million young apprentices in non-formal training by 2023. These programs, funded by reallocating resources from fuel subsidies and alleged corruption savings, expanded social spending from 4.9% of GDP in 2018 to 6.5% by 2023, with Bienestar's budget surging to 600 billion pesos () annually. President , succeeding López Obrador in October 2024, pledged continuity, raising adult pensions to 6,000 pesos bimonthly by 2025 and integrating digital payments via Banco del Bienestar to enhance reach in underserved areas. Empirical data from Mexico's National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) and INEGI indicate declined from 51.9 million people (41.9% of the ) in 2018 to 38.5 million (29.6%) in 2024, with dropping from 7% to 5.3%, lifting approximately 13.4 million individuals above the poverty line. Multidimensional , factoring , and housing, fell to 36.3% by 2022, correlating with program coverage in southern states like , where reductions exceeded national averages. Independent assessments attribute part of this to cash transfers boosting household income by 10-20% in recipient groups, alongside increases (from 88 pesos daily in 2018 to 248 by 2024) and growth, though rural-urban disparities persist, with southern regions lagging at over 50% rates. Critics, including economists at the , argue that while transfers provided short-term relief, their unconditional design may discourage labor participation and skill-building, with fiscal costs straining sustainability amid stagnant GDP growth averaging 0.9% annually from 2018-2023. Pensions alone projected to absorb 22% of the 2024 federal budget, prompting concerns over deficit financing via debt, which rose from 44% to 50% of GDP. highlighted austerity cuts in conditional aid as potentially undermining long-term , with evaluations showing mixed impacts on nutrition and adherence compared to prior targeted schemes. Official claims of eradication via these measures face scrutiny for overlooking erosion—real transfer values declined for some cohorts—and uneven regional efficacy, where program funds sometimes fueled local patronage rather than structural drivers like informal employment (56% of workforce in 2024).

Health, Education, and Labor Reforms

In the health sector, the Obrador administration abolished the Seguro Popular program in May 2019, replacing it with the Institute for Health for (INSABI) to provide free without fees or private provider contracts. This shift aimed to centralize services under federal control but encountered failures, including shortages, disruptions, and a 16.8% drop between 2018 and 2020 due to inadequate transition planning. INSABI's poor performance—marked by increased out-of-pocket expenses and service gaps—led to its suspension in August 2022 and full termination in 2023, with functions transferred to the expanded for Wellbeing (IMSS-Bienestar). IMSS-Bienestar sought to integrate uninsured populations into IMSS , hiring 20,000 additional doctors by 2024, but persisted with fiscal constraints and overambitious coverage mandates, yielding mixed results in metrics without significant improvements in outcomes like mortality rates. Education reforms under the Fourth Transformation prioritized a "humanistic" model emphasizing and cultural identity over standardized evaluations, abrogating key elements of the 2013 Peña Nieto reforms such as mandatory teacher assessments and performance-based promotions. The New Mexican School initiative, rolled out in 2019, faced opposition from dissident teacher unions like the CNTE, resulting in widespread strikes; for instance, over 120,000 secondary and teachers struck in June 2023, disrupting the academic year. Federal education spending declined by approximately 12 billion USD from 2018 to 2023, correlating with stagnant scores— ranked 58th in reading, 60th in math, and 52nd in science among 81 countries in 2022—and persistent low enrollment in at around 40%. These changes accommodated union demands by reinstating political criteria for hiring and tenure, but critics argue they perpetuated inefficiency, with only one-third of new teachers receiving mentoring and overall system quality remaining poor per assessments. Labor reforms focused on wage hikes and structural changes to combat . The rose from 88.36 pesos per day in 2018 to 248.93 pesos by 2024—a real doubling after —through annual increases averaging 20%, exceeding CPI by 6-15 points, which lifted millions from via spillovers to non- earners. The 2019 Labor Justice and Democratic Participation Reform established independent conciliation centers and required worker ratification of contracts, enhancing and raising aggregate worker income by nearly 6% in the first two years. The 2021 outsourcing ban prohibited subcontracting for non-core activities, affecting an estimated 4-5 million workers previously in such arrangements; empirical studies show 6% wage gains for transitioned employees, formalization benefits without net job losses, and reduced , though some firms reported compliance costs. These measures aligned with USMCA labor provisions, prompting elections and averting potential trade penalties.

Transition and Continuation under Sheinbaum (2024-Present)

2024 Election and Succession

The 2024 Mexican general election, held on June 2, 2024, resulted in a decisive victory for Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, the candidate of the ruling Morena party and its allies, who secured approximately 59.4% of the presidential vote, or over 35 million ballots, marking the highest vote total in Mexican history. Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City and close protégé of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, defeated opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz of the Strength and Heart for Mexico coalition (around 27.9%) and Jorge Álvarez Máynez of the Citizens' Movement (about 10.3%). The election, which also renewed all seats in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate, saw a voter turnout of roughly 61%, amid reports of campaign violence that claimed over 30 political lives in the preceding year.
CandidateParty/CoalitionVote ShareApproximate Votes
Morena and allies (Sigamos Haciendo Historia)59.4%35,336,000
Strength and Heart for Mexico27.9%16,500,000
Jorge Álvarez MáynezCitizens' Movement10.3%6,000,000
Morena and its coalition partners achieved a in the 500-seat , capturing about 73% of the seats (364 total), enabling constitutional amendments without opposition support, while falling short of a two-thirds majority in the 128-seat (83 seats). This outcome positioned Sheinbaum to advance Obrador's agenda, including the Fourth Transformation's emphasis on social welfare expansion and institutional reforms. The election faced allegations of irregularities, including vote-buying through welfare program distribution and clientelist practices by operatives, as reported by opposition figures and independent observers, though Mexico's (INE) certified the results without evidence of sufficient to alter the presidential outcome. Gálvez challenged the vote count in court, citing over 2,000 documented anomalies, but the INE and federal judiciary upheld Sheinbaum's win, with international monitors from the noting transparency deficits but no systemic . Sheinbaum was inaugurated as Mexico's 66th —and in the role—on , 2024, in the , pledging continuity of the Fourth Transformation through policies like , drives, and expanded social programs such as universal pensions and scholarships. In her address, she affirmed alignment with Obrador's vision, stating that the transformation "will continue" under her administration, while introducing adjustments like increased focus on gender equity and environmental sustainability within the existing framework. This succession ensured Morena's dominance, with Obrador retaining influence as party leader and moral authority, though constitutional limits bar his reelection.

Key Initiatives and Adjustments (2024-2025)

Upon assuming office on October 1, , President pledged to advance the Fourth Transformation through a blend of continuity in social welfare expansion and targeted adjustments emphasizing and institutional strengthening. Central to this phase was the unveiling of "Plan Mexico" in 2025, a national development blueprint outlining 13 goals aimed at eradicating , reducing , and elevating to one of the world's top 10 economies by 2030, with ambitions to boost to 28% of GDP via public-private partnerships in and renewables. This plan built on prior austerity measures but introduced refinements, such as fiscal to address the inherited exceeding 5% of GDP at the end of , prioritizing efficient public spending over deficit expansion. In security policy, Sheinbaum's administration adjusted the inherited "hugs, not bullets" approach by reinforcing a multi-pillar strategy introduced in late 2024, focusing on root-cause interventions, intelligence gathering, coordinated federal-state operations, and enhanced security presence in high-risk areas. Official data reported a 25.3% decline in intentional homicides from September 2024 to July 2025, alongside a 24.9% drop through April 2025, attributed to these measures; however, absolute rates remained elevated at over 1,800 homicides in the subsequent period from September 2024 to August 2025, prompting ongoing scrutiny of efficacy amid persistent cartel influence. In early October 2024, a National Agreement for the Human Right to Water and Sustainability was signed, integrating environmental security with infrastructure commitments to improve access for 10 million households by 2030. Economic and labor initiatives featured annual double-digit hikes, with a increase targeting progressive alignment toward living costs, alongside planned reforms to combat in public hiring and streamline s. By December 2024, Sheinbaum announced 20 legislative proposals for , including revisions to the INFONAVIT to expand affordability for low-income workers. In , the endorsed 2024 constitutional reforms reversing aspects of 2013 to bolster state control via and CFE, while signaling openness to private renewable investments, though implementation faced delays amid fiscal constraints. Sheinbaum's first government report on September 1, 2025, highlighted these efforts as advancing the transformation, claiming reductions in —such as shrinking the income gap between richest and poorest from 27 to 14 times—through sustained pensions and remittances growth, though independent assessments noted uneven progress amid nearshoring opportunities and U.S. trade pressures. These adjustments reflected pragmatic tweaks to AMLO-era policies, prioritizing measurable outcomes like reductions and gains while navigating inherited fiscal and challenges.

Measurable Outcomes and Empirical Assessments

Economic Indicators and Growth

During the Fourth Transformation (2018–present), Mexico's real GDP growth has been subdued compared to historical averages and regional peers, averaging roughly 1.2% annually from 2018 to 2024, influenced by fiscal , the 2020 , and policy-induced constraints. The contracted sharply by 8.5% in 2020 due to and limited fiscal stimulus, followed by a rebound of 4.8% in 2021 driven by base effects and export recovery. Subsequent years saw deceleration, with 3.9% growth in 2022, 3.2% in 2023, and an estimated 1.2% in 2024 amid slowing and nearshoring uncertainties under the Sheinbaum administration. Projections for 2025 indicate further slowdown to 0.5–1.0%, below the 2% long-term average (1994–2023), reflecting fiscal consolidation, U.S. risks, and stalled labor market momentum.
YearReal GDP Growth (%)
20182.2
2019-0.1
2020-8.5
20214.8
20223.9
20233.2
20241.2
2025 (proj.)0.5–1.0
Sources: , INEGI via aggregated reports. Inflation has remained managed within target bands, averaging 4.5% annually from 2018 to 2024, with Banco de México's independent —maintained despite government pressures—crediting rate hikes for curbing post-pandemic spikes to 7.9% in 2022. By mid-2025, annual inflation eased to 3.5%, supported by subdued demand and stabilization, though food price volatility persists. Unemployment rates have hovered low at 2.5–3.5% of the economically active , reaching 2.6% in June 2025, bolstered by informal sector absorption and remittances but masking in low-productivity jobs. Public debt as a share of GDP rose modestly from 44% in 2018 to 53% by end-2025 projections, remaining below averages due to restrained spending and oil revenue reliance, though off-budget funds and liabilities introduce fiscal risks. Overall, macroeconomic stability has prevailed without major crises, yet growth lags, with structural factors like reduced public investment (averaging 2% of GDP) and energy sector bottlenecks cited as growth impediments by international assessments.

Poverty Reduction and Inequality Metrics

According to data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development (CONEVAL), the number of people living in decreased from 51.9 million in 2018 (41.9% of the ) to 38.5 million in 2024 (29.6% of the ), representing a reduction of approximately 13.4 million individuals. This decline included a 23% drop in , from higher levels in 2018 to about 5.3% of the by 2024, measured via CONEVAL's , which incorporates income alongside access to health, education, housing, and social security.
YearPoverty Rate (%)Number in Poverty (millions)Extreme Poverty Rate (%)
201841.951.9~10.0
202236.346.8~5.6
202429.638.55.3
Data compiled from INEGI/CONEVAL via multiple reports; extreme poverty figures approximate based on reported declines. Income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient from the National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure (ENIGH), also improved, falling from 0.426 in 2018 to 0.391 in 2024—the lowest level since national data collection began in 1984. World Bank estimates corroborate a downward trend, with the Gini at 45.4 in 2020, lower than prior peaks, though Mexico's overall inequality remains high compared to OECD averages. Attributions for these changes include minimum wage hikes (from 88 pesos daily in 2018 to over 200 pesos by 2024), expanded cash transfers via programs like the universal pension for seniors and youth scholarships, and rising remittances, which reached $58.5 billion in 2023; however, regional disparities persist, with southern states like Chiapas and Guerrero showing slower progress due to limited infrastructure and employment opportunities. Critics, including analyses from observers, note that while absolute metrics improved, some gains may stem from external factors like post-COVID recovery and commodity price booms rather than structural reforms alone, with potential fiscal strains from welfare expansions risking future sustainability under successor Claudia Sheinbaum's administration. projections indicate only marginal further declines in monetary (to 28.2% by 2025 using a $6.85 daily line), underscoring that inequality reductions have not fully translated to broad-based income growth.

Public Security and Violence Statistics

During Andrés Manuel López Obrador's presidency (2018-2024), recorded over 180,000 , marking it as the bloodiest six-year term in the country's modern history. The rate peaked at approximately 29 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018 with 33,341 victims, driven largely by conflicts, and remained elevated throughout the period, averaging around 25-28 per 100,000 annually. Official data from the Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana (SSPC) and Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) often show discrepancies, with INEGI figures typically 8-11% higher than SSPC reports due to differences in classification and underreporting in preliminary tallies.
YearHomicides (SSPC/INEGI approximate)Rate per 100,000 (INEGI)
201833,341~29
2019~35,000~28
2020~34,500~27
2021~33,000~26
2022~32,00025.9
2023~30,00024.9
2024~28,000 (partial)25.6
Enforced disappearances also surged, with over 110,000 cases registered by 2024, many linked to cartel activities and inadequate state response, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis where families, particularly women-led search collectives, face retaliation including murders and threats. The Mexico Peace Index indicates a 14.4% deterioration in overall peace since 2015, with homicide and firearms crime rates 54.7% and 71.2% higher, respectively, reflecting persistent organized crime dominance despite the creation of the National Guard in 2019. Under President (2024-present), preliminary SSPC data report a 24.9% drop in intentional homicides from September 2024 to April 2025, with daily averages falling to levels not seen in nine years by October 2025, attributed to intelligence-led operations and over 34,000 arrests for high-impact crimes. However, absolute remains severe, with six cities exceeding 50 homicides per 100,000 in 2023-2024, and public perception of insecurity rising to 63.2% in Q2 2025 amid ongoing fragmentation. These trends suggest tactical shifts yielding short-term gains but underscore unresolved structural issues in control and judicial impunity.

Corruption Perceptions and Governance Metrics

Mexico's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) score, as reported by , stood at 28 out of 100 in 2018 when the Fourth Transformation began, reflecting entrenched perceptions of corruption. The score improved modestly to 31 by 2020 and held steady through 2023, positioning Mexico at 126th out of 180 countries in the latter assessment, below the global average of 43. This period of relative stability occurred amid the administration's initiatives, including budget austerity, the dissolution of certain oversight bodies, and daily public disclosures of alleged past graft, though independent analyses have questioned the depth of institutional reforms. The 2024 CPI marked a sharp decline to 26, dropping Mexico to 140th place and signaling worsening perceptions near the end of Obrador's term and into Claudia Sheinbaum's early presidency. The World Bank's (WGI) for Control of Corruption provide a complementary percentile-based measure, where higher ranks indicate stronger perceived efforts to curb corruption through laws, enforcement, and norms. Mexico's estimate hovered around the 25th-30th from 2018 to 2022, with a slight deterioration to the lower 20s by 2023, reflecting no net gains despite rhetorical commitments to "." Aggregate WGI data across related dimensions, such as and Government Effectiveness, similarly show stagnation or marginal declines, attributed in part to executive centralization that reduced autonomous on . These metrics, derived from expert surveys and cross-country assessments, lag actual events but capture sustained expert and business perceptions of for .
YearCPI ScoreGlobal Rank (out of 180)WGI Control of Corruption Percentile Rank (approx.)
20182813828
20203112427
20223112625
20233112623
202426140N/A (2023 data)
Empirical critiques note that while petty reports may have decreased due to simplified , high-level persisted, with few convictions of political allies despite scandals involving family members and contractors. indices like the (BTI) highlight how fiscal opacity and weakened independent auditors contributed to these outcomes, contrasting with official claims of billions saved through ethical procurement. Under Sheinbaum's continuation as of 2025, early data remains preliminary, but the 2024 CPI drop suggests perceptions have not rebounded.

Health and Education Performance Data

Under the Fourth Transformation, Mexico's underwent significant restructuring with the dissolution of Seguro Popular in 2020 and its replacement by IMSS-Bienestar, aiming to provide universal coverage without fees to approximately 55 million uninsured individuals by centralizing procurement and emphasizing delivery.00281-9/fulltext) However, implementation faced challenges including chronic medicine shortages—exacerbated by centralized purchasing inefficiencies and allegations—and deficits, leading to reported gaps in service delivery despite expanded nominal coverage. continued a long-term decline, reaching 12.65 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2021 from 13.2 in 2018, though progress slowed amid the and policy disruptions. Maternal mortality rates, which had improved under prior administrations, reversed course post-2018, rising to 27.5 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2020 before partial recovery, attributed in part to disrupted supply chains and reduced preventive care access. Life expectancy at birth, which stood at around 75 years in 2018, declined to 70.8 years by 2021 due to excess mortality and comorbidities like and , with healthy life expectancy dropping further to 61.4 years amid uneven rollout and overloads. IMSS-Bienestar reported treating over 20 million patients annually by 2023, but independent assessments highlighted persistent regional disparities, with rural areas experiencing higher out-of-pocket expenses and lower utilization rates compared to urban centers. Vaccination coverage for routine immunizations fell below 80% for by 2022, contributing to outbreaks, while management stagnated, with mortality remaining among the highest globally at 69.2 per 100,000.
Health Indicator2018 Value2021-2022 ValueSource
(per 1,000 live births)13.212.65 (2021)PAHO
at Birth (years)~7570.8 (2021)WHO/INEGI
Maternal Mortality (per 100,000 live births)~20 (pre-2018 trend)27.5 (2020)Think Global Health
In education, the New Mexican School model under the Fourth Transformation emphasized holistic formation over standardized testing, leading to the elimination of high-stakes evaluations like ENLACE and a shift toward teacher autonomy, but coinciding with stagnant or declining performance metrics. Gross primary enrollment remained high at over 105% (reflecting over-age entrants), while upper secondary completion rates for 25-34 year-olds hovered around 40% in 2024, below the OECD average, with persistent rural-urban gaps. Dropout rates in lower secondary education averaged 2.7% annually, influenced by socioeconomic factors rather than policy-driven improvements, though free textbooks and scholarships expanded access for marginalized groups. PISA assessments revealed declines across core competencies: mathematics scores fell from 408.8 in 2018 to 395 in 2022, reading from 420 to 415, and science by 2 points, placing below the average and among the lowest in the region, with 27% of students in the bottom socio-economic quintile. These trends persisted despite increased spending to 5.3% of GDP by , raising questions about curricular reforms' efficacy in fostering measurable skills amid teacher union influences and reduced accountability. Tertiary attainment remained low at 2% for master's-level degrees among 25-34 year-olds in 2024, up marginally from 2019 but far from international benchmarks.
PISA Scores (15-year-olds)20182022Change
408.8395-13.8
Reading420.5415.4-5.1
~416~414-2

Controversies and Opposing Viewpoints

Authoritarian Tendencies and Institutional Reforms

Critics of the Fourth Transformation have argued that the Obrador administration (2018–2024) exhibited authoritarian tendencies through systematic efforts to undermine autonomous institutions, consolidate executive power, and erode checks and balances, a pattern that has persisted under President since October 2024. These include public attacks on the , electoral bodies, and the , alongside reforms that expanded roles in civilian spheres and pressured economic regulators. Supporters, including party officials, counter that such measures combat entrenched and elitism, framing them as democratizing reforms rather than power grabs. However, empirical indicators, such as Mexico's declining scores in global during this period, suggest institutional weakening, with executive dominance over budgets and appointments reducing legislative and . A flagship institutional reform was the 2024 judicial overhaul, enacted via constitutional amendments approved by in September 2024 with Morena's . This replaced merit-based appointments with popular elections for all federal judges, including justices, starting in 2025–2027, ostensibly to enhance and reduce . Critics, including legal experts and international observers, contend it politicizes the by exposing judges to partisan campaigns and populist pressures, potentially enabling the to stack courts with loyalists and impair impartial rulings on actions. Sheinbaum, who inherited and endorsed the reform, defended it as empowering citizens against a "corrupt" judiciary, though strikes by judicial workers in 2024 highlighted fears of eroded . Electoral institutions faced parallel pressures, exemplified by reforms to the (INE) passed in 2023, which cut its budget by about 10% and restructured oversight bodies to favor executive influence. López Obrador repeatedly accused the INE of and inefficiency, proposing further changes in 2024 to shrink its autonomy and congressional representation. Parts of the 2023 law were annulled by the in May 2023 for unconstitutionality, but the moves fueled protests and concerns over manipulated elections, particularly amid Morena's dominance. Under Sheinbaum, INE funding disputes continued into 2025, with the government leveraging its legislative control to enforce compliance. Militarization emerged as another vector of institutional reform, with the armed forces assuming civilian roles far beyond traditional security. The , created in 2019 under Obrador, was formalized as a military entity in 2022 and expanded to over 130,000 personnel by 2024, handling , , and even economic projects like airports and trains. This blurred civilian-military lines, with the military receiving budget exemptions and impunity protections, leading to documented abuses and allegations. Sheinbaum pledged continuity in June 2024, enacting a 2025 law fully militarizing the Guard under the Defense Ministry, despite evidence of persistent violence and institutional overreach. Efforts to influence the (Banxico) underscored economic institutional strains. López Obrador publicly criticized Banxico's independence, nominating aligned figures like Victoria Rodríguez Ceja in 2021 and proposing in 2020 to use reserves for welfare programs, which threatened inflation controls. While outright interference was limited, repeated attacks eroded perceived autonomy, contributing to investor unease. Sheinbaum has maintained a pragmatic stance but upheld the administration's fiscal priorities, avoiding direct confrontations as of October 2025.

Policy Inefficiencies and Economic Critiques

Critics have highlighted stagnant economic growth during the Fourth Transformation, with Mexico's average annual GDP expansion under López Obrador averaging approximately 0.8% from 2018 to 2024, the lowest among the previous five administrations. This underperformance persisted despite favorable global conditions like nearshoring opportunities, attributed by analysts to regulatory uncertainty, insufficient infrastructure investment, and policy reversals that deterred private sector participation. Fiscal policy inefficiencies drew scrutiny for combining initial austerity with later expansions, leading to a widened deficit reaching nearly 6% of GDP in 2024—the largest in over three decades—and a public debt increase of about 6.6 trillion pesos (roughly $336 billion), pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from around 44% to 48-53%. While early restraint aimed at curbing corruption and waste, subsequent spending surges on social programs and elections contributed to this escalation without commensurate productivity gains, raising sustainability concerns amid rising interest costs. Energy sector reforms prioritizing state-owned enterprises like and CFE over private investment reversed prior liberalizations, resulting in reduced , production declines, and heightened blackout risks due to underinvestment in amid growing . Rule changes favoring CFE in dispatch and contracts, justified as promoting , have been criticized for increasing costs and emissions while failing to address dependencies or reliability, with analysts warning of long-term economic drag from foregone renewables and efficiency gains. Megaprojects emblematic of the transformation, such as the Dos Bocas refinery and Tren Maya, exemplified cost overruns and delays: Dos Bocas's budget doubled to $16.8-20 billion with operational disruptions including 2024-2025 shutdowns from crude quality issues and power failures, while Tren Maya exceeded its $7.5 billion estimate, incurring MX$5.8 billion losses in early 2025 reliant on subsidies amid low ridership and revenue shortfalls. These inefficiencies, linked to opaque contracting and accelerated timelines bypassing environmental reviews, have strained public finances without delivering promised self-sufficiency or tourism boosts, per economic assessments.

Security Failures and Human Rights Concerns

Despite the López Obrador administration's emphasis on addressing root causes of violence through social programs rather than direct confrontation, homicide rates remained elevated throughout the Fourth Transformation period. From December 2018 to 2024, Mexico recorded over 180,000 murders, with an average of approximately 96 homicides per day and rates hovering around 25-27 per 100,000 inhabitants annually. While official figures indicated a marginal decline from 25.9 per 100,000 in 2022 to 24.9 in 2023, independent assessments highlighted that violence concentrated in cartel-dominated states like Guanajuato, with total intentional homicides exceeding 156,000 by mid-2023, marking the bloodiest presidential term in modern Mexican history. Enforced disappearances escalated as a parallel crisis, with the National Registry of Missing Persons documenting 111,521 cases as of September 2023, rising to over 125,000 by 2025, including more than 60,000 during the 2018-2024 term. Around 90% of these occurred since the militarized drug war began, but rates continued unabated under policies prioritizing non-confrontation, with 13,000 additional disappearances in 2024 alone and women/girls comprising nearly 40% of new cases from 2018-2024. The creation of the in 2019, initially under civilian oversight but reformed to military command by 2022, intensified concerns over abuses in operations. Reports documented arbitrary detentions, , extrajudicial executions, and migrant mistreatment by Guard members, with armed forces historically more prone to detainee abuse than civilian police. UN experts and NGOs warned that further entrenched , as investigations into soldier abuses often stalled or faced presidential intervention. Press freedom deteriorated amid targeted violence, with 44 to 46 journalists murdered between 2018 and 2024, making the deadliest country in the for workers. Killings frequently linked to coverage of and , with even protected journalists slain, underscoring failures in federal safeguards; presidential rhetoric labeling critical outlets as "conservative" or corrupt was cited by advocates as fostering hostility. High impunity rates persisted, with few perpetrators convicted, exacerbating among reporters.

Environmental and Indigenous Impacts

The railway project, a flagship initiative of the Fourth Transformation, has resulted in significant in the , with an estimated 6,659 hectares (16,455 acres) of forest cleared as of 2025, primarily affecting the largest in . Construction activities have also damaged underground cenotes—sacred freshwater caves integral to the regional ecosystem—and habitats for species such as jaguars, scarlet macaws, and spider monkeys, prompting accusations of from environmental groups. Despite government mitigation efforts like elevated tracks and pledges, independent assessments indicate irreversible harm to hotspots, with millions of trees felled in violation of initial environmental impact assessments. Energy policies emphasizing state control over hydrocarbons, including the expansion of operations and the Dos Bocas refinery, have prioritized production over renewable transitions, contributing to stalled progress on emissions reductions. 's are projected to rise to 807-831 MtCO₂e by 2030 under current policies, undermining the 35% reduction target from 2000 levels announced prior to the administration. This shift, justified as energy sovereignty, has reduced incentives for private clean energy investments and increased reliance on aging , exacerbating environmental vulnerabilities amid growing demand from nearshoring. National deforestation trends under the administration show mixed outcomes from programs like Sembrando Vida, which aimed to restore 1.28 million hectares through but faced criticism for low tree survival rates and unintended clearing of existing s to establish plots. lost 315,000 hectares of natural in 2024 alone, equivalent to 116 Mt of CO₂ emissions, continuing a pattern where annual losses averaged over 300,000 hectares during 2018-2024, driven partly by and . Government data claims progress in coverage, but third-party analyses highlight inconsistencies, including reversals that weakened environmental enforcement institutions. Indigenous communities, particularly Maya groups in the project zones, have reported inadequate free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) processes for the , with UN experts in 2022 urging the government to address negative impacts including land dispossession and cultural disruption. Consultations were criticized as performative or fraudulent by affected assemblies, leading to court suspensions and internal divisions, though the administration maintained that regional assemblies unanimously approved the project with documented minutes. Broader Fourth Transformation initiatives, such as the Corridor, have similarly strained relations with through exclusion from decision-making, heightening conflicts over territorial rights despite rhetorical commitments to consultation under ILO Convention 169.

International Relations and Trade Implications

The Fourth Transformation emphasized Mexico's foreign policy principle of non-intervention and sovereignty, leading to a pragmatic but occasionally strained approach to , particularly with the , its primary trading partner. Under López Obrador, Mexico prioritized domestic energy self-sufficiency and agricultural , which triggered disputes under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), implemented on July 1, 2020, as a successor to . These policies aimed to reclaim control from foreign investors but risked violating USMCA provisions on fair competition and investor rights, prompting formal complaints from the U.S. government. Trade relations with the U.S. reached record levels during the period, with surpassing as the top U.S. trading partner in , driven by nearshoring trends amid U.S.- tensions and shifts; bilateral goods trade exceeded $800 billion annually by 2024. However, López Obrador's energy reforms, including constitutional changes in 2021 that favored state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) and (CFE) over private and foreign competitors, led to U.S. claims of against American firms, contravening USMCA Chapter 14 on and Chapter 8 on state-owned enterprises. The U.S. initiated dispute consultations in 2022, estimating potential losses to U.S. investors at billions, though no retaliatory tariffs were imposed by late 2024. Similarly, a presidential decree banning genetically modified (GM) corn imports for human consumption—intended to promote ""—was ruled a USMCA violation in January 2025 by a dispute panel, which found it lacked scientific basis and discriminated against U.S. exports, comprising over 90% of 's corn imports valued at $5 billion annually. On migration, Mexico cooperated closely with the U.S. to curb northward flows, deploying over 25,000 troops to the southern border by 2019 following U.S. tariff threats under President Trump, reducing apprehensions by 80% temporarily and averting economic penalties. This persisted into the Biden administration, with joint initiatives addressing root causes, though underlying pressures from Central American caravans and Venezuelan outflows persisted. The administration's 2024 , mandating popular election of judges, raised U.S. concerns over weakened , potentially deterring (FDI) and undermining USMCA labor and environmental side agreements; FDI inflows, which peaked at $36 billion in 2023 due to relocations, faced risks from perceived policy unpredictability. Relations with China expanded economically, with growing to $100 billion by 2023, positioning as Mexico's second-largest partner; agreements signed during Obrador's 2023 APEC meeting with focused on precursor chemicals for and infrastructure cooperation, without joining China's . U.S. officials expressed unease over Chinese firms using Mexico as a hub to bypass tariffs, potentially complicating USMCA compliance on . Overall, the Fourth Transformation's nationalist tilt preserved trade volumes but introduced frictions that prioritized over seamless integration, contrasting with prior neoliberal openness and testing Mexico's leverage in North American supply chains.

Long-Term Implications

Potential Legacy Elements

The Fourth Transformation's expansion of social welfare programs, including pensions for the elderly, scholarships for students, and hikes, has established commitments that subsequent administrations may find difficult to reverse due to their popularity and political entrenchment. Official data from Mexico's National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL) indicate a decline in from 41.9% of the in 2018 to 36.3% in 2022, with approximately 5 million people lifted out of , primarily through income-based measures. However, this reduction has been accompanied by deteriorations in access to services and social security, suggesting a focus on cash transfers over structural improvements in public goods. Critics argue that much of the progress stems from external factors like remittances and post-pandemic recovery rather than transformative policies, potentially limiting long-term sustainability without fiscal reforms. Institutionally, the 2024 judicial reforms, which mandate popular election of judges and reduce justices from 11 to 9 with fixed 12-year terms, could erode and enable greater executive influence over legal outcomes. This shift, enacted amid Morena's congressional supermajorities following the June 2024 elections, risks politicizing the and deterring foreign investment by undermining rule-of-law assurances, as evidenced by market reactions including peso depreciation and stock declines post-approval. While proponents claim it democratizes justice, analysts warn of increased vulnerabilities and weakened checks on power, potentially institutionalizing a with populist overtones. Megaprojects like the rail line represent infrastructural legacies with mixed prospects; upon completion in late 2024, it aims to boost tourism in the but has already caused significant of 6,659 hectares—87% without proper permits—and damage to sensitive ecosystems including cenotes and aquifers. Environmental assessments highlight irreversible losses and threats to , raising questions about whether it will become a viable economic driver or a costly environmental liability burdened by overruns exceeding initial budgets. Similarly, investments in state-owned energy assets, such as the Dos Bocas refinery, underscore a legacy of prioritizing revival over private renewables, which may constrain Mexico's transition to low-carbon models amid global pressures. Politically, the Fourth Transformation has solidified Morena's dominance, transforming Mexico's from fragmented to effective one-party rule, as demonstrated by the party's control of the and majorities in both congressional chambers after . This hegemony, built on AMLO's personal appeal and anti-elite rhetoric, fosters policy continuity under successor but exacerbates polarization and risks democratic backsliding through concentrated power. Fiscally, public debt rose to 49.7% of GDP by from lower pre-term levels, with deficits widening to nearly 6% amid spending surges, posing intergenerational burdens if growth falters. Overall, while social redistributive elements may endure as electoral anchors, unresolved challenges in , , and fiscal discipline could undermine the transformation's viability.

Challenges and Unresolved Issues

Despite reductions in the rate from approximately 42% in 2018 to 29.6% by 2024, largely attributed to expanded social welfare programs such as pensions and scholarships, the long-term of these initiatives remains uncertain amid fiscal constraints and subdued . Public debt as a percentage of GDP rose to 53.3% in 2024 from around 45% in 2018, straining resources for ongoing redistributive policies without corresponding increases in productivity or tax revenues beyond reliance on oil exports and nearshoring gains. Average annual GDP growth under the Fourth Transformation hovered below 2% excluding the 2020 contraction, insufficient to generate formal for a growing youth population and vulnerable to external shocks like U.S. trade policies. Security challenges persist as a core unresolved issue, with groups maintaining territorial control in significant regions and rates remaining elevated at 24.9 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, down marginally from peaks near 29 in 2018 but still among the world's highest, resulting in over 30,000 crime-related deaths annually. The administration's "hugs, not bullets" strategy has failed to dismantle networks, leading to continued , theft, and migration pressures, while deployments in civilian roles have not yielded systemic reductions in violence. Over 110,000 enforced disappearances remain unresolved as of 2024, exacerbated by rates exceeding 95% for such crimes, undermining and rule-of-law foundations essential for investment and development. Corruption endures despite institutional reforms and austerity measures, with perceptions of graft persisting in public procurement and state enterprises like , where inefficiencies and debt accumulation—totaling over $100 billion—continue to divert funds from social priorities. Judicial and electoral overhauls, including the 2024 constitutional changes expanding military influence and reducing independent oversight, have raised concerns over power centralization, potentially eroding checks and balances and deterring , which declined in key sectors by 2024. These structural vulnerabilities, compounded by environmental controversies from infrastructure projects like the , leave exposed to governance risks that could hinder the Fourth Transformation's transformative goals beyond short-term palliatives.