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Future generations

Future generations refer to human individuals who do not yet exist but will be born in subsequent periods, forming the subject of ethical inquiries into obligations arising from causal chains of actions today that affect their prospects for existence and flourishing.^[1] Intergenerational equity frameworks emphasize balancing present consumption with preservation of capital—natural, human, and technological—for posterity, countering tendencies to overexploit resources through mechanisms like public debt or environmental degradation that shift burdens forward.^[2] Empirical demographic data reveal that global fertility rates have fallen to 2.3 children per woman in 2023, with projections indicating a further decline to 1.8 by century's end, driving population growth to peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s before contracting.^[3]^[4] This trend, evident in 48 countries representing 10% of current world population where peaks are expected by 2054, imperils the prosperity of future cohorts by straining labor forces, innovation pipelines, and fiscal systems amid aging societies.^[5]^[6] Beyond demographic pressures, existential risks including unaligned superintelligent AI, synthetic biology mishaps, and great power conflicts threaten the outright extinction or irreversible curtailment of humanity's lineage, underscoring the imperative for rigorous, evidence-based mitigation strategies over deferred or discounted considerations.^[7]

Conceptual Foundations

Definitions and Philosophical Origins

Future generations refer to the cohorts of human beings who will be born subsequent to the present era, encompassing individuals not yet existent but anticipated to inhabit the world in coming decades, centuries, or beyond.^[8] This concept is central to intergenerational ethics, which examines the moral responsibilities of current populations toward these unborn persons, particularly in domains such as resource preservation, environmental stewardship, and economic policy.^[9] Unlike contemporaneous ethics, which address interactions among living agents, obligations to future generations grapple with uncertainties like population size, technological advancements, and unforeseen risks, necessitating principles that extend moral considerability across temporal divides.^[10] Philosophical inquiry into duties toward posterity traces to ancient traditions, where thinkers invoked notions of stewardship and communal continuity, though systematic analysis emerged later.^[10] In antiquity, discussions appeared in contexts of justice and the common good; for instance, Roman jurists and philosophers like Cicero emphasized the perpetuity of res publica obligations, implying indirect regard for successors through institutional endurance.^[11] Medieval and early modern natural law theorists, such as John Locke, extended property rights to include provisos against waste that would impoverish heirs, grounding intergenerational claims in causal chains of inheritance and rational agency.^[12] The Enlightenment sharpened these ideas, with Thomas Paine explicitly articulating in 1791–1792 that perpetual public debts constitute a form of unjust encumbrance on unborn citizens, as no generation holds authority to mortgage the future without consent or reciprocity.^[11] Paine's agrarian justice proposals further posited that improvements to land impose correlative duties to compensate future inheritors for depleted natural endowments.^[11] Concurrently, utilitarian frameworks from Jeremy Bentham onward incorporated future persons into aggregate welfare calculations, rejecting temporal discounting unless empirically justified by uncertainty or diminishing marginal utility, thus establishing a consequentialist basis for long-term equity.^[12] These foundations influenced 20th-century developments, yet their origins lie in first-order reasoning about human continuity and avoidable harm across time.^[13]

Key Thinkers and Theories

John Rawls provided one of the earliest systematic frameworks for obligations to future generations in his 1971 book A Theory of Justice, where he introduced the "just savings principle." This principle requires that each generation save enough resources—encompassing natural capital, human capital, and institutional frameworks—to ensure that subsequent generations can maintain or improve their capacity for justice, derived from a hypothetical original position behind a veil of ignorance that extends temporally. Rawls emphasized that justice demands passing on just institutions rather than maximizing aggregate welfare, critiquing purely utilitarian approaches for potentially justifying exploitation of the present for speculative future gains. Derek Parfit's 1984 work Reasons and Persons profoundly influenced debates on future generations through the non-identity problem and related paradoxes in population ethics. The non-identity problem posits that choices today, such as environmental policies or reproductive decisions, often determine who exists in the future rather than merely their welfare levels; thus, person-affecting harm principles fail to explain why depleting resources might be wrong if future people would not exist otherwise and their lives remain worth living.^[14] Parfit's repugnant conclusion further illustrates tensions in total utilitarianism, where adding vast numbers of barely worth-living lives could theoretically outweigh smaller populations with higher welfare, challenging theories to reconcile quality, quantity, and impartiality across generations.^[14] These arguments shifted focus from contractualism to impersonal consequentialist evaluations of future trajectories.^[15] Hans Jonas, in his 1979 book The Imperative of Responsibility, advocated a deontological ethics tailored to technological vulnerability, arguing that humanity's unprecedented power to imperil future existence—via nuclear risks, genetic engineering, or ecological disruption—imposes a categorical imperative to prioritize preservation over expansion. Jonas's "heuristic of fear" urges caution against optimistic projections, grounding responsibility in the ontological weakness of future beings who cannot consent or reciprocate, contrasting with Rawlsian mutual advantage by emphasizing unilateral guardianship.^[16] Subsequent thinkers like Tim Mulgan extended consequentialist approaches in Future People (2006), proposing a person-based but non-person-affecting utilitarianism that divides moral realms into necessity (simple aggregation for near-term survival) and ends (broader impartiality for long-term flourishing), addressing Parfit's paradoxes by moderating aggregation over infinite futures.^[17] Avner de-Shalit's communitarian theory (1995) views generations as linked communities sharing professions, ecosystems, and identities, implying duties of reciprocity through collective practices rather than abstract individualism.^[8] These frameworks highlight ongoing tensions between deontological constraints, consequentialist aggregation, and the causal indeterminacy of future identities.

Ethical and Moral Dimensions

Obligations from First Principles

Obligations to future generations derive from fundamental deontological principles, including the recognition of human interdependence as a continuous species with shared rational agency and biological needs. Present actions causally determine the possibilities for unborn individuals, creating a moral asymmetry where current generations possess the power to enable or preclude human flourishing indefinitely. This interdependence forms a moral community extending temporally, obligating preservation of essential conditions like clean air, water, and energy resources to sustain life.^[18] A core principle is non-maleficence, the negative duty to avoid harm, applied forward through causality: actions causing irreversible damage, such as resource depletion or technological risks, violate this by compromising future persons' right to survival in a livable environment. Hans Jonas formalized this as an imperative for an age of vulnerability: "Act so that the effects of your action are compatible with the permanence of genuine human life on earth." This duty prioritizes species continuity over individual autonomy, viewing humanity collectively rather than atomistically, as future generations inherit physiological necessities unchanged from the present.^[18]^[18] Reciprocity reinforces these obligations, grounded in the observable chain of generational transmission: each cohort benefits from prior stewardship and thus incurs a parallel responsibility to transmit viable prospects forward. Experimental evidence indicates that reflecting on sacrifices by past generations activates this norm, reducing temporal discounting and increasing willingness to invest in future welfare, as individuals internalize a "pay it forward" dynamic. This aligns with causal realism, where denying reciprocity ignores the empirical continuity of human existence, potentially leading to self-undermining outcomes like diminished lineage or societal collapse.^[18]^[19]^[20]

Intergenerational Justice Frameworks

Intergenerational justice frameworks articulate principles for allocating burdens and benefits across non-overlapping generations, focusing on duties to preserve resources, institutions, and opportunities for future persons. These frameworks address challenges such as the non-identity problem—where present actions determine future identities, complicating harm-based claims—and the absence of reciprocity between generations. Philosophers derive obligations from hypothetical contracts, impartial reasoning, or sustainability imperatives, often rejecting pure self-interest in favor of long-term causal continuity.^[10] John Rawls' contractarian approach, detailed in A Theory of Justice (1971), introduces the just savings principle, whereby rational agents behind a veil of ignorance would mandate each generation to accumulate real capital—encompassing natural, human, and institutional assets—sufficient to establish and sustain a just basic structure for successors. This principle operates intertemporally: earlier generations save more to build toward a stationary state of zero net savings, after which maintenance preserves equality of opportunity without depleting stocks. Rawls specifies no fixed savings rate, allowing variation by society's stage of development, but emphasizes that savings must enable future persons to achieve at least the primary goods necessary for the difference principle's application. Critics note its vagueness and tension with Rawls' later endorsement of a no-growth equilibrium in Political Liberalism (1993), which prioritizes stability over expansion amid finite resources.^[10]^[21]^[22] Consequentialist frameworks, advanced by Derek Parfit in Reasons and Persons (1984), eschew person-affecting restrictions that limit duties to identifiable victims, invoking the non-identity problem to argue that choices like resource depletion cannot harm future individuals who owe their existence to those choices. Parfit's "no-difference view" equates the moral weight of acts causing worse lives for different future people with those harming the same people, endorsing impartial aggregation of utilities across time with minimal discounting to avoid the repugnant conclusion—where maximizing total welfare permits vast populations at bare subsistence. This approach implies stringent present sacrifices for distant futures, grounded in causal chains linking current decisions to exponential long-term impacts, though it risks overemphasizing uncertain projections absent empirical discounting for extinction risks or technological adaptation.^[10]^[23] Sustainability-oriented frameworks frame justice as maintaining a constant or improving stock of critical capital, drawing from Lockean provisos updated for modern ecology: each generation must leave "enough and as good" natural and productive assets, preventing irreversible depletion. Strong variants, emphasizing non-substitutability, require preserving ecosystem services—like biodiversity supporting 75% of global food production as of 2023—without relying on human capital offsets, countering weak sustainability models that assume infinite technological fixes despite historical evidence of ecological thresholds, such as the 1972 Limits to Growth projections validated by resource strain patterns. These principles underpin policies like the Hartwick rule, mandating reinvestment of exhaustible resource rents into reproducible capital to stabilize per capita wealth, empirically tested in resource-dependent economies where adherence correlates with sustained growth rates above 2% annually from 1980–2010.^[24]^[25]^[26] Sufficientarian and threshold-based frameworks prioritize ensuring future generations surpass a minimal welfare level—e.g., access to clean air, stable climate, and basic liberties—beyond which inequalities diminish in moral urgency, accommodating uncertainty via adaptive management rather than rigid equalizing mandates. This contrasts with egalitarian extensions of Rawls, which demand non-impoverishment relative to present standards, but aligns with causal realism by focusing verifiable minima, such as UN Sustainable Development Goals targets met in only 12% of indicators by 2023. Libertarian variants limit duties to non-aggression, prohibiting coercion for savings but permitting voluntary bequests, reflecting empirical variance in cultural savings behaviors across societies with median rates from 5% in the US to 35% in China as of 2022. Debates persist on discounting: pure time preference ignores causal discounting for probability, while hybrid rates of 1–3% annually balance evidence from integrated assessment models showing net present value erosion beyond 100 years.^[10]^[27]^[28]

Economic Perspectives

Discounting Future Utilities

Discounting future utilities in economic evaluations of policies affecting future generations involves applying a social discount rate (SDR) to convert anticipated future benefits and costs into present values, enabling comparisons across time periods. This practice accounts for the opportunity cost of capital, productivity growth, and ethical considerations about intergenerational equity, but it inherently diminishes the weight given to distant outcomes. For instance, a benefit of $1 million in 100 years, discounted at 3% annually, equates to roughly $5,000 today, illustrating how higher rates prioritize present over future utilities.^[29] The theoretical foundation for the SDR stems from the Ramsey rule, formulated in 1928, which posits that the optimal discount rate approximates r = δ + ηg, where δ represents the pure rate of time preference (PTTP), η the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption (often interpreted as aversion to inequality), and g the anticipated annual per capita economic growth rate. Empirical estimates of g have historically ranged from 1% to 2% in developed economies, while η is commonly set between 1 and 2 based on surveys of ethical preferences and consumption behavior. The PTTP, δ, captures the extent to which utility is devalued solely due to temporal distance, independent of growth or risk; Frank Ramsey deemed a positive δ "ethically indefensible," arguing it discriminates against future individuals without justification beyond mere impatience.^[30]^[31] Ethical debates center on whether δ should be zero, reflecting impartiality toward all generations, or positive to incorporate uncertainty about human persistence, technological feasibility, or existential risks that causally diminish the realized utility of remote futures. Proponents of δ = 0, such as in the 2006 Stern Review on climate economics, contend that discounting future welfare purely for its timing violates basic moral symmetry, as future persons' interests are as valid as present ones absent evidence of their non-existence; the Review employed δ ≈ 0.1% (reflecting minimal uncertainty), η = 1, and g = 1.3%, yielding an SDR of about 1.4% and implying substantial present sacrifices for distant climate mitigation.^[32]^[33] In contrast, William Nordhaus's integrated assessment models, like DICE, incorporate a higher effective δ around 0.9% to 3% (calibrated to market interest rates and growth forecasts), resulting in SDRs of 4% to 5%, which assign lower present value to far-future damages and favor more gradual policy responses.^[32]^[34] Critics of low or zero δ argue it unrealistically assumes perpetual economic growth and human continuity, potentially overvaluing speculative long-term utilities while underweighting verifiable present needs, especially in low-growth or high-uncertainty scenarios where causal chains to future benefits may break. For example, positive δ aligns with observed individual time preferences (around 1-5% in behavioral studies) and market rates, providing a realism check against utopian projections that could divert resources from immediate poverty alleviation or innovation.^[35]^[36] Conversely, zero-δ frameworks risk infinite regress in decision-making, as they equate infinitesimal present costs with massive future gains, a position some attribute to ethical absolutism rather than empirical prudence. Government practices vary: the U.S. Office of Management and Budget recommends SDRs declining from 3% to 2.5% over 30+ years for intergenerational projects, while the UK Treasury uses 3.5% initially, tapering to 1% after 300 years to balance equity and realism.^[37] These choices profoundly shape policy; in climate cost-benefit analysis, Stern's low SDR elevates the social cost of carbon to $85+ per ton (in 2006 dollars), versus Nordhaus's $7-10 per ton, directly influencing optimal emission trajectories and investments for future generations' welfare.^[32]^[38]

Growth, Innovation, and Resource Allocation

Economic growth, driven by capital accumulation and productivity gains, has historically enhanced the welfare of future generations through compounding effects on living standards. Since 1820, global GDP per capita has increased over 20-fold, correlating with rises in life expectancy from 31 years to 73 years and extreme poverty rates falling from near 90% to under 10% by 2019, trends that persist into subsequent eras via inherited technological and institutional advancements. This trajectory suggests that policies promoting growth—such as secure property rights and open trade—allocate resources dynamically, enabling descendants to inherit not depleted stocks but expanded capacities for further prosperity, as evidenced by intergenerational wealth transfers in high-growth economies like post-WWII East Asia.^[39] Innovation, often fueled by population expansion and market incentives, counters resource constraints by generating substitutes and efficiencies that benefit unborn cohorts. Economist Julian Simon posited in The Ultimate Resource (1981) that human minds constitute the ultimate resource, producing ideas that alleviate scarcity; empirical validation includes his wager with ecologist Paul Ehrlich, where Simon profited from declining real prices of five commodities (copper, chromium, nickel, tin, tungsten) between 1980 and 1990 amid global population growth from 4.4 billion to 5.3 billion.^[40] Extending this, the Simon Abundance Index, tracking 50 basic commodities' affordability relative to hourly wages, rose to 609.4 by 2023—indicating 509% greater abundance since 1980—despite population surpassing 8 billion, as technological advances like hydraulic fracturing reduced energy costs and synthetic materials supplanted rare metals.^[41] Resource allocation frameworks in economics emphasize substitutability over fixed endowments, arguing that innovation reallocates scarce inputs toward higher-value uses, preserving options for future generations. Historical data show real prices of key resources—such as oil, dropping from $100+ per barrel in 1980 (inflation-adjusted) to averages below $70 by 2023—reflecting not exhaustion but discoveries and efficiencies like LED lighting halving energy demand for illumination since 2000.^[42] In contrast to static models assuming zero-sum depletion, dynamic allocation via competitive markets has empirically sustained growth without proportional resource exhaustion, as seen in the U.S. where proven oil reserves doubled from 1980 to 2020 through technological recovery, leaving future populations with augmented, not diminished, endowments.^[43] This approach prioritizes empirical trends over precautionary rationing, which risks stifling the very innovations needed for long-term abundance.

Legal and Policy Developments

International Declarations and Frameworks

The Stockholm Declaration, adopted at the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment on 16 June 1972, established an early international benchmark by affirming in Principle 1 that humans bear a solemn responsibility to protect and improve the environment for present and future generations, framing environmental protection as a collective imperative tied to human dignity and well-being.^[44] This non-binding declaration influenced subsequent global environmental governance, emphasizing common outlooks on resource use without imposing legal obligations.^[45] Building on this foundation, the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, endorsed by 178 governments on 14 June 1992, integrated intergenerational equity into sustainable development principles. Principle 3 specifies that the right to development must equitably meet the developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations, while Principle 4 mandates that environmental protection form an integral part of development processes to avoid compromising future capacities.^[46] These principles, part of a broader agenda including Agenda 21, underscore causal links between current actions and long-term ecological viability but remain declaratory, guiding national policies rather than enforcing compliance.^[47] In 1997, UNESCO's General Conference adopted the Declaration on the Responsibilities of the Present Generations towards Future Generations on 12 November, articulating that present generations must ensure the needs and interests of future ones are safeguarded, with specific duties to preserve cultural heritage, promote scientific advancement, and maintain environmental integrity for equitable inheritance.^[48] This framework extends beyond environment to ethical obligations in knowledge transmission and diversity protection, reflecting first-principles reasoning on temporal continuity of human flourishing. The United Nations System Common Principles on Future Generations, endorsed in May 2023, provide internal UN guidance through eight principles, including moral obligations rooted in respect for all humans, adoption of future-oriented organizational practices, and integration of intergenerational equity in decision-making across poverty reduction, climate action, and technology governance.^[49] These principles build on prior declarations by urging evidence-based foresight and diverse capabilities within UN entities to mitigate risks like biodiversity loss and inequality amplification.^[50] The most recent advancement, the Declaration on Future Generations annexed to the Pact for the Future, was adopted by the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2024 during the Summit of the Future. It commits states to long-term policymaking that safeguards future generations' rights to peace, sustainable development, a healthy environment, and human rights, including through intergenerational dialogue, ethical technology deployment, and appointment of a UN Special Envoy to advocate for these interests.^[51] Key actions encompass science-driven decisions, multilateral strengthening, and addressing inequalities, though implementation relies on voluntary state actions and follow-up mechanisms like annual reporting, highlighting persistent challenges in translating declarations into binding frameworks.^[52] Collectively, these instruments form a progressive normative architecture prioritizing empirical foresight over immediate gains, yet their efficacy depends on domestic integration amid geopolitical variances.

Domestic Laws and Judicial Precedents

Several national constitutions explicitly reference obligations toward future generations, typically in environmental stewardship contexts. Norway's Constitution, through Article 112 adopted in 1992, requires that natural resources be managed with long-term considerations to safeguard the right to a healthy environment for future generations.^[53] Hungary established a Parliamentary Commissioner for Future Generations in 1999 via the Act on the Parliamentary Commissioner for Future Generations, tasking the office with reviewing legislation for impacts on unborn citizens; this role persists as a deputy ombudsman under the Commissioner for Fundamental Rights.^[54] In the United States, Pennsylvania's Environmental Rights Amendment, enacted in 1971 as Article I, Section 27 of the state constitution, declares public natural resources the common property of the people, including future generations, imposing a trusteeship duty on the state to conserve and protect them.^[55] These provisions often serve as interpretive frameworks rather than standalone enforceable rights, influencing policy but facing implementation challenges. For instance, Norway's Article 112 has been invoked in administrative decisions on resource extraction, such as oil drilling approvals, emphasizing sustainable management without granting direct litigation standing to abstract future interests.^[56] Hungary's commissioner has issued reports critiquing laws on genetic modification and waste management for long-term risks, though its powers are advisory and subject to political shifts, including a 2011 constitutional reform that curtailed some independence.^[57] Judicial precedents have occasionally extended these constitutional duties into enforceable obligations, particularly in climate and deforestation cases. Colombia's Supreme Court, in Future Generations v. Ministry of the Environment (April 5, 2018), ruled that unchecked Amazon deforestation violated the fundamental rights of present and future generations to life, health, and a healthy environment, ordering a comprehensive action plan, monitoring, and recognition of the Amazon biome as a "subject of rights" with legal protections. Germany's Federal Constitutional Court, in its March 24, 2021 judgment on constitutional complaints against the Federal Climate Change Act, declared provisions inadequate for failing to sufficiently mitigate emissions burdens on future generations, infringing on their rights to human dignity and freedoms under Articles 1 and 2 of the Basic Law; the court mandated legislative amendments to ensure intergenerational equity in climate policy.^[58] In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court in Pennsylvania Environmental Defense Foundation v. Commonwealth (2017) affirmed that the Environmental Rights Amendment imposes an enforceable public trust duty on government to preserve resources for future generations, rejecting privatization of state-owned lands as violative of this trusteeship.^[59] Such rulings highlight judicial willingness to operationalize future-oriented duties amid empirical evidence of environmental degradation, yet they remain context-specific and contested on grounds of justiciability, with critics arguing that courts risk overstepping into policy domains without clear textual mandates for unborn persons' standing.^[60]

Litigation and Enforcement Challenges

One primary obstacle in litigation aimed at protecting future generations is establishing legal standing, as courts typically require plaintiffs to demonstrate a concrete, particularized injury-in-fact that is actual or imminent, traceable to the defendant's actions, and redressable by judicial remedy. In cases involving prospective harms like climate change, these elements are difficult to satisfy because injuries to unborn individuals are inherently speculative and diffuse, lacking the immediacy needed for traditional standing doctrines. For instance, in Juliana v. United States (filed 2015), youth plaintiffs alleging constitutional violations from federal climate inaction were dismissed by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in January 2020, which ruled that their injuries depended on unpredictable future government regulatory choices, rendering redressability implausible as it would necessitate judicial policymaking.^[61] Subsequent attempts to amend the complaint failed, with the U.S. Supreme Court denying certiorari in March 2025, underscoring persistent barriers under Article III of the U.S. Constitution.^[62] Similar standing hurdles appear globally, where future-oriented claims often falter due to challenges in attributing specific harms across generations amid scientific uncertainties in causation.^[63] Justiciability doctrines further complicate such suits by framing intergenerational obligations as non-justiciable political questions reserved for legislative or executive branches. Courts invoke separation of powers to avoid dictating complex policy trade-offs, such as balancing current economic needs against uncertain future risks, which dilutes the enforceability of rights-based arguments invoking intergenerational equity. In the U.S., this manifests in dismissals where remedies would require ongoing judicial oversight of emissions or resource management, deemed incompatible with democratic processes. Internationally, frameworks like the UNFCCC emphasize state sovereignty, rendering disputes over future generations' interests subject to diplomatic negotiation rather than compulsory adjudication, with advisory opinions from bodies like the ICJ in 2024 clarifying obligations but lacking binding force.^[64] These constraints highlight how legal systems prioritize present accountability over abstract future claims, often resulting in procedural victories for defendants despite substantive merits.^[65] Enforcement remains a core challenge even in successful cases, as judgments frequently lack robust mechanisms for long-term compliance monitoring or sanctions, particularly against sovereign states prioritizing short-term economic imperatives. The Dutch Urgenda case (2019), where the Supreme Court mandated a 25% greenhouse gas reduction by 2020 relative to 1990 levels to safeguard present and future citizens' rights, saw partial government adherence but exposed gaps in verifying sustained action amid shifting administrations and global interdependencies.^[66] Supranational enforcement is especially fraught, with no centralized authority to compel states, leading to reliance on voluntary implementation that falters under competing national interests. Proposals for guardians ad litem or future generations ombudsmen, as explored in some jurisdictions, face adoption resistance due to concerns over undue judicial expansion and practical difficulties in representing undefined interests. Overall, these enforcement deficits underscore the aspirational nature of intergenerational protections, where litigation yields symbolic pressure but limited causal impact on behavior without complementary political will.^[64]^[67]

Criticisms and Debates

Representational and Practical Difficulties

Future generations cannot participate in contemporary democratic processes, as they lack the capacity to vote, lobby, or articulate preferences, resulting in systematic underrepresentation relative to current electorates. This structural absence fosters political short-termism, where policymakers prioritize immediate voter concerns over long-term intergenerational impacts, such as accumulating public debt or environmental degradation that burdens unborn cohorts.^[68]^[69] Efforts to mitigate this include institutional innovations like dedicated representatives or commissioners for future generations, as implemented in Wales via the Well-being of Future Generations Act of 2015, which established an independent commissioner to advocate for sustainable policies across public bodies. Similar roles exist in Hungary (established 2008) and proposed in various jurisdictions, aiming to inject long-term considerations into decision-making through advisory reports and legal challenges. However, these mechanisms encounter representational pitfalls, including risks of misrepresentation—where appointed guardians may project biased or inaccurate future interests—and negligence, as democratic majorities can override such voices without electoral accountability.^[70]^[71]^[68] Epistemic uncertainties exacerbate these issues, as defining "future generations" lacks consensus—surveys of foresight experts reveal divergent temporal scopes, from immediate offspring to centuries ahead—and ascertaining their interests is hampered by unknowable variables like technological advancements, demographic shifts, and evolving values. The non-identity problem further complicates representation: present actions influence not only the welfare of future people but their very existence and identities, rendering comparisons of harm or benefit across non-overlapping groups philosophically and practically elusive.^[13]^[72]^[73] Practically, enforcing obligations faces barriers from forecasting inaccuracies and incentive misalignments; for instance, electoral cycles averaging four to five years incentivize policies yielding quick gains, while long-horizon risks like climate tipping points (potentially activating beyond 2100 under high-emissions scenarios) evade scrutiny. Institutional representatives, though innovative, often lack binding authority, as seen in critiques of Wales' framework where vague metrics and policymaker resistance undermine implementation, potentially allowing subversion of stated goals. Moreover, rhetorical appeals to future representation can yield perverse outcomes, such as diluting demands for immediate action by invoking speculative future adaptations.^[74]^[75]^[76]

Balancing Present and Future Priorities

The tension between present and future priorities arises from the immediate welfare needs of living populations, such as poverty alleviation and public health, which compete with long-term investments like infrastructure and environmental stewardship that benefit unborn generations.^[77] Political systems, particularly democracies, exacerbate this imbalance through short-termism, as elected officials prioritize policies appealing to current voters over deferred benefits, often leading to deferred maintenance on fiscal and environmental fronts.^[78] ^[79] For instance, U.S. federal debt exceeded $35 trillion by mid-2025, with interest payments projected to surpass defense spending by 2026, crowding out future public investments and imposing higher taxes or reduced services on subsequent cohorts.^[80] ^[81] Economic analysis employs discounting to weigh future utilities against present ones, reflecting opportunity costs and expected growth that typically render future generations wealthier in absolute terms.^[29] Standard discount rates of 2-7% annually, derived from market interest and consumption growth, imply that benefits 100 years hence are valued at 1-37% of their nominal amount today, a practice criticized for undervaluing existential risks but defended as avoiding overcommitment of scarce present resources.^[82] ^[83] In environmental policy, cost-benefit assessments reveal that aggressive mitigation measures often impose disproportionate near-term costs—such as higher energy prices affecting low-income households—against uncertain long-term gains, with studies showing net present values turning positive only under low or zero discount rates that assume no intergenerational wealth transfer via innovation.^[84] ^[85] Critics of strong future-oriented obligations argue that such frameworks risk moral hazard by excusing present inaction on solvable problems, like underfunded education or healthcare, in favor of speculative harms; empirical trends indicate that technological progress has historically elevated living standards, suggesting future cohorts may inherit greater adaptive capacity rather than net burdens.^[86] ^[87] Balancing requires pragmatic institutions, such as fiscal rules capping debt-to-GDP ratios or independent oversight bodies, to mitigate short-term biases without rigid rights claims that could paralyze decision-making amid uncertainty.^[88] This approach aligns incentives with evidence-based trade-offs, acknowledging that unchecked present consumption depletes capital stocks while excessive precaution stifles growth essential for both eras.^[89]

Skepticism Toward Rights-Based Claims

Philosophers skeptical of rights-based claims for future generations argue that rights presuppose existent individuals capable of bearing them, as non-existent entities lack the ontological status necessary to hold moral or legal claims. This view holds that attributing rights to future persons imposes correlative duties on present actors without reciprocal agency or consent from the purported rights-holders, rendering such ascriptions philosophically incoherent. For instance, contractarian frameworks emphasize that rights emerge from agreements among actual moral agents, excluding hypothetical future parties who cannot participate in or enforce such pacts.^[90] A core objection centers on the non-identity problem, where present actions not only affect the welfare of future individuals but also determine their very existence and identity; thus, no specific future person can claim harm from choices that enable their coming into being under altered conditions. This undermines rights claims, as violations would require identifiable victims whose existence is contingent on the very acts alleged to infringe their entitlements, creating a logical impasse rather than enforceable obligations. Critics further contend that framing intergenerational concerns in rights terms distracts from pragmatic duties of prudence or stewardship, potentially inflating moral rhetoric without causal mechanisms for redress, as future generations cannot litigate or reciprocate.^[90]^[91] Empirically, historical precedents for rights enforcement rely on present claimants with legal personality, a threshold unmet by unborn cohorts; attempts to designate guardians or trustees for future interests, as in some environmental charters, falter due to agency conflicts and unverifiable long-term outcomes. Skeptics like those employing zipper arguments posit that chaining present decisions to infinite future sequences avoids justice-based duties altogether, favoring backward-looking equity among contemporaries over speculative forward projections. This perspective prioritizes causal realism, where present policies should optimize for verifiable present harms and benefits, rather than abstract rights that risk paralyzing decision-making through indeterminate claims.^[92]^[91] In legal discourse, assertions of future generations' rights often conflate moral intuition with juridical enforceability, yet courts and treaties consistently ground obligations in existing parties' interests, not phantom litigants. For example, while documents like the 1992 Rio Declaration invoke intergenerational equity, implementation hinges on state sovereignty and present economic imperatives, revealing rights language as aspirational rather than binding without existent enforcers. Such skepticism extends to policy, cautioning against rights-based mandates that could curtail present liberties—such as resource extraction or demographic choices—without empirical evidence of net intergenerational gain, given uncertainties in technological adaptation and population dynamics.^[93]^[91]

Applications and Implications

Environmental and Sustainability Contexts

The principle of intergenerational equity in environmental and sustainability contexts asserts that current generations hold natural resources and environmental systems in trust for future ones, requiring conservation to avoid irreversible depletion. This framework emphasizes preserving options for future populations by limiting overexploitation of ecosystems, biodiversity loss, and atmospheric stability. Empirical assessments, however, highlight that resource scarcity has historically been alleviated through technological innovation rather than static conservation alone, as evidenced by increased global food production per capita despite population growth from 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 8 billion in 2023. Sustainable development, formalized in the 1987 Brundtland Report by the World Commission on Environment and Development, defines the approach as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."^[94] The report underscores conservation of plant and animal species to maintain options for future adaptability, warning that species loss could constrain societal choices amid changing conditions. This concept has shaped policies prioritizing long-term ecological balance, including biodiversity treaties like the Convention on Biological Diversity (1992), which commits parties to sustainable use of biological resources for present and future benefit. In climate governance, intergenerational considerations feature prominently in agreements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992), which states its objective as stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, protecting it "for the benefit of present and future generations." The Paris Agreement (2015) extends this by aiming to hold global temperature increase well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, thereby enhancing adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability reduction for current and subsequent generations. These instruments invoke equity principles, including intergenerational, to justify differentiated responsibilities, though implementation faces scrutiny over verifiable emission reductions, with global CO2 levels rising from 15.5 Gt in 1990 to 36.8 Gt in 2022 despite pledges. Critiques of applying intergenerational equity in policy note potential trade-offs with intragenerational needs, particularly in developing economies where immediate poverty alleviation via fossil fuel access has enabled environmental investments; for instance, per capita energy consumption correlates strongly with improved human development indices, suggesting that denying such access burdens future generations with inherited poverty rather than scarcity.^[95] Economic analyses further argue that positive discount rates—reflecting time preference and growth expectations—imply that future generations, projected to be materially wealthier, can afford superior environmental remediation than rigid present sacrifices would yield, as pure time-egalitarianism may undervalue current lives.^[96] Population projections indicate a peak around 10.4 billion by 2080s followed by decline due to falling fertility rates below replacement in most regions, potentially easing resource pressures if innovation sustains productivity gains observed since 1800. Despite these dynamics, policy applications persist in frameworks like the UN Sustainable Development Goals (2015), which integrate future-oriented targets for zero hunger, clean energy, and climate action by 2030, though progress metrics reveal mixed outcomes, with biodiversity intactness declining 10% globally since 1700.

Technological Progress and Demographic Shifts

![Illustration of past, present, and future population sizes (Our World in Data)][float-right] Global fertility rates have declined sharply, with the total fertility rate (TFR) standing at approximately 2.3 children per woman in 2023, down from 4.9 in the 1950s, and projections indicate it may fall below the replacement level of 2.1 as early as 2023 in some estimates.^[3] ^[97] In 2024, the TFR reached 2.25 globally, a drop from 3.31 in 1990, with expectations of further decline to 2.07 by 2050; already, five of the world's ten largest countries have TFRs below 2.1, signaling widespread sub-replacement fertility.^[98] ^[99] This trend drives a projected global population peak of around 10.3 billion this century, followed by decline, with 48 countries—representing 10% of world population—expected to peak between 2025 and 2054.^[100] ^[101] Demographic shifts toward aging populations and shrinking workforces exacerbate dependency ratios, with fewer young people supporting more elderly dependents, potentially straining economies through reduced labor supply and innovation pipelines.^[102] Fewer births limit the generation of new ideas essential for economic growth, as population size correlates with inventive capacity, raising risks of stagnation or even societal collapse if trends persist unchecked.^[103] In the United States, for instance, the fertility rate hit a record low of 1.599 in 2024, far below replacement, mirroring global patterns that could lead to population decline by 2080 and associated economic instability.^[104] ^[105] Technological progress, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, intersects with these shifts by potentially offsetting labor shortages; models suggest automation can sustain growth despite population decline through higher productivity per worker.^[106] ^[107] Advances in reproductive technologies, such as AI-assisted IVF and embryology, aim to boost fertility rates, with automation promising to enhance success rates and research scalability.^[108] ^[109] However, empirical evidence shows fertility declines persisting amid technological gains, driven more by socioeconomic factors like education and urbanization than offset by tech alone, while AI's rapid evolution introduces uncertainty, potentially altering family choices or creating an "event horizon" beyond which demographic forecasting becomes unreliable.^[110] ^[111] For future generations, these dynamics imply a trade-off: smaller cohorts may inherit more resources per capita if productivity surges via technology, enabling sustained or even accelerated growth, but persistent low fertility heightens extinction risks and diminishes the human capital needed to harness innovations.^[107] ^[112] Causal analysis underscores that while automation mitigates immediate economic drags from depopulation, it does not reverse underlying fertility drivers, such as high child-rearing costs and delayed family formation, potentially locking societies into trajectories of reduced vitality unless addressed through policy or cultural shifts.^[113] ^[114] UN projections highlight that without fertility rebounds, future cohorts face compounded challenges from resource allocation skewed toward the elderly, underscoring the need for technological adaptations to preserve intergenerational equity.^[4]

Recent Global Initiatives

UN Pact for the Future and 2024 Declaration

The Pact for the Future was adopted by heads of state and government at the United Nations Summit of the Future on September 22, 2024, comprising 56 action-oriented commitments across five thematic chapters, including one dedicated to youth and future generations.^[115] This chapter commits member states to integrate long-term perspectives into policymaking, enhance youth participation in decision-making processes, and prioritize intergenerational equity by addressing risks such as climate change, technological disruptions, and resource depletion that could affect unborn populations.^[116] The document builds on prior UN frameworks like the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, emphasizing the need to "futureproof" global governance through anticipatory measures and inclusive consultations.^[115] Annexed to the Pact is the Declaration on Future Generations, intergovernmentally negotiated and adopted as part of the same resolution (A/RES/78/2), which articulates guiding principles for safeguarding the interests of those yet to be born.^[52] The Declaration underscores obligations to protect planetary boundaries, ensure equitable access to resources, and mitigate irreversible harms from current actions, framing future generations as implicit stakeholders in international law and ethics.^[117] It includes concrete implementation actions, such as incorporating future-oriented impact assessments in national policies and establishing follow-up mechanisms within the UN system to monitor compliance, though these remain non-binding without dedicated enforcement bodies.^[118] Proponents argue the documents advance causal accountability by linking present decisions to downstream outcomes, such as biodiversity loss or debt burdens, drawing from empirical data on unsustainable trajectories in reports like the UN's "Our Common Agenda."^[119] However, adoption faced resistance, with Russia abstaining due to concerns over sovereignty erosion and perceived overreach into domestic affairs, highlighting tensions in multilateral consensus-building.^[120] Critics from think tanks like the Heritage Foundation contend the Pact expands UN mandates without addressing institutional inefficiencies, potentially diluting focus on verifiable progress metrics.^[121] Despite these, the agreements signal a formal recognition of temporal discounting in global policy, urging empirical evaluation of commitments against baselines like SDG indicators.^[122]

Emerging Policy Experiments

In Wales, the Well-being of Future Generations Act, enacted on April 29, 2015, represents a pioneering statutory framework requiring public bodies to advance seven national well-being goals while considering the interests of future generations alongside present needs. The legislation mandates assessments of long-term impacts in decision-making processes, with public service boards established across regions to implement these objectives, and a dedicated Future Generations Commissioner tasked with oversight, advice, and enforcement through reviews and recommendations. As of 2025, the Commissioner's annual Future Generations Report evaluated progress on well-being goals, highlighting advancements in areas like renewable energy adoption but identifying shortfalls in nature restoration targets, preventive health funding, and economic resilience, urging policies such as a national food plan and Real Living Wage to mitigate intergenerational inequities.^[123] This model has influenced global discussions, with evaluations noting its role in embedding sustainability into routine governance, though challenges persist in measurable outcomes amid fiscal constraints.^[124] In Japan, "future design" has emerged as an experimental policymaking approach since the late 2010s, wherein participants role-play as representatives of future generations—typically imagining life in 2050—to deliberate on current policies, often yielding preferences that prioritize long-term sustainability over short-term gains.^[125] Laboratory experiments, such as those conducted with systems thinking frameworks, demonstrate that this method increases contributions to commons resources by 20-30% compared to standard deliberations, as role-players exhibit reduced time inconsistency in resource allocation decisions.^[126] Applied to real-world scenarios like decarbonization pathways, future design integrates with public policy processes by incorporating "imaginary future generations" in workshops, fostering causal awareness of intergenerational trade-offs; a 2024 study combining it with prospect theory confirmed compatible effects in enhancing precautionary behaviors toward environmental risks.^[127] ^[128] Proponents argue it addresses democratic deficits in representing unborn cohorts, though scalability to large-scale governance remains unproven, with pilots limited to advisory roles.^[129] Other nascent experiments include guardianship models, where present actors are legally obligated to steward resources for future wards, drawing from trust law precedents; a 2023 analysis outlined applications in environmental policy, such as fiduciary duties for sovereign wealth funds to avoid depleting principal for descendants.^[130] In science, technology, and innovation domains, time-bound pilots test mechanisms like extended impact assessments, with OECD guidance from 2024 emphasizing small-scale trials to support transitions while safeguarding future adaptability.^[131] These initiatives collectively probe institutional innovations to counter present bias in policy, prioritizing empirical testing over rights-based assertions, yet face critiques for enforcement gaps and potential overreach into democratic sovereignty.^[132]

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Jul 7, 2025 · AI is increasingly integrated into reproductive medicine, particularly in in vitro fertilization (IVF) and embryology.
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Can AI Help to Raise the Fertility Rate?
Aug 4, 2022 · The short answer is yes. This paper studies the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on families' fertility choices.
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Fertility and the AI event horizon - by Scott Sumner
Feb 13, 2025 · Rapid AI progress might create a sort of event horizon, beyond which it is impossible to forecast any societal trend, including fertility. I'll ...<|separator|>
[112]
Demographic Decline Appears Irreversible. How Can We Adapt?
Sep 16, 2025 · With fewer young workers entering the labor force, fewer new businesses are started, and existing companies face less competition. Over time, ...
[113]
Do falling birth rates matter in an AI future? - Vox
Jul 18, 2025 · We're learning that the birth rate is falling all over the world, leading to aging societies and a global population set to decline this century.
[114]
The Debate over Falling Fertility - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Declines in fertility rates can stimulate economic growth by spurring expanded labor force participation, increased savings, and more accumulation of physical ...
[115]
Pact for the Future - United Nations Summit of the Future
Sep 22, 2024 · The Summit of the Future in September, 2024, will produce an inter-governmentally negotiated, action-oriented Pact for the Future.Zero draft · Revision documents · Declaration on future... · Global Digital Compact
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Pact for the Future: From Adoption to Implementation
Apr 30, 2025 · The Pact for the Future formulates 56 commitments in the areas of: sustainable development and financing for development; international peace and security.
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"The Declaration on Future Generations is an absolute novelty ...
Sep 27, 2024 · The Declaration includes a pre-amble, guiding principles, commitments, a list of concrete actions for implementation, and a proposal for follow-up.
[118]
The Declaration on Future Generations: Moving from Vision to Reality
Apr 25, 2025 · The DFG offers a new lens through which to view pressing global issues and provokes change and acceleration toward future-oriented solutions.
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https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/
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What's the UN's new 'Pact for the Future', and why did Russia ...
Sep 24, 2024 · The pact sets out a promise to revitalise obligations and commitments on disarmament of nuclear and biological weapons, “renew trust in global ...
[121]
The U.S. Must Oppose the U.N. Pact for the Future
Sep 16, 2024 · The Pact for the Future is an unwise effort to bestow additional responsibilities on an organization that is unable to manage its current responsibilities.
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Pact for the Future: World leaders pledge action for peace ...
Sep 22, 2024 · It also underlines the importance of protecting the environment, promoting intergenerational equity, and ensuring that long-term consequences of ...
[123]
Future Generations Report 2025 - Future Generations Wales
Inside the report, you'll find an assessment of progress, targeted advice and examples of change already happening through public services. Future Generations ...
[124]
A decade on, six things the world can learn from Wales' innovative ...
Jan 6, 2025 · This has since led to greater and more tailored support from the Welsh government and the future generations commissioner's office.Missing: problems | Show results with:problems
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Future Design: A new policymaking system for future generations
Mar 8, 2019 · Keiichiro Kobayashi discusses the concept of 'future design' – where people are asked to become an imaginary future generation and to think and act in the ...
[126]
Policy design by “imaginary future generations” with systems thinking
In this paper, we present an innovative framework to envision a decarbonized society in 2050 and design policies by introducing “imaginary future generations,” ...
[127]
Full article: Future design in the public policy process: giving a voice ...
Future generations are not well represented in politics and policy, and therefore we lack the ability to account for the future in decision-making. He states: ...
[128]
Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and ...
Jul 22, 2024 · We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating ...<|separator|>
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Preferences for policies from the perspectives of different generations
Aug 5, 2025 · In this study, we aim to clarify what is needed for future generations to be considered by analyzing the respondents' policy preferences using ...
[130]
[PDF] Models for Protecting the Environment for Future Generations
At least five international treaties and three declarations refer to future generations. Domestic laws, such as those in the United States, also often ...
[131]
[PDF] How to best use STI policy experimentation to support transitions ...
Dec 16, 2024 · Policy experimentation in science, technology, and innovation (STI) involves implementing temporary, small-scale, or time-bound pilots such ...
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Guardians for Future Generations Archives - futurepolicy.org
Guardians for Future Generations, or Ombudspersons, ensure future interests are considered in political decisions, acting as auditors and advocates for long- ...