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The Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) was a research initiative launched in 2011 by the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) and led by psychologists Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania, focused on developing and testing methods to substantially improve the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts for geopolitical, economic, and social events through crowd-sourced volunteer predictions and structured judgment processes.^[1]^[2] Participating as one team in IARPA's four-year Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) forecasting tournament, GJP recruited thousands of online volunteers to generate over one million forecasts on approximately 500 questions, outperforming control groups of unaided forecasters by more than 60% and prediction markets by 25-30% in accuracy, as measured by Brier scores that penalize both overconfidence and underprecision.^[3]^[1] Central to its success were the identification of "superforecasters"—the top 2% of participants who maintained high performance year-over-year with a 0.65 correlation, exhibiting traits like intelligence, numeracy, and active open-mindedness—and techniques such as aggregating multiple judgments, team deliberation, brief training in probabilistic reasoning, extended deliberation time, frequent updating of predictions, and applying an "outside view" via reference classes from similar past events.^[3]^[1] These empirical findings challenged conventional reliance on individual experts or classified intelligence, showing instead that domain-relevant past performance, precise probabilistic expressions, and collaborative aggregation yield superior results even from non-specialists.^[3] Upon the tournament's conclusion in 2015, Tetlock and Mellers established Good Judgment Inc., a commercial entity that deploys networks of superforecasters and these validated practices to deliver tailored forecasting and training services to government, nonprofit, and private sector clients.^[1]

Origins and Development

Inception as IARPA's ACE Program Participant (2011)

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), a U.S. government research organization focused on high-risk, high-reward intelligence technologies, initiated the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program in 2011 to evaluate methods for enhancing the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of probabilistic forecasts on national security events.^[4] The program's core objective was to test whether eliciting and statistically aggregating judgments from large, diverse groups of non-expert forecasters could outperform conventional intelligence analysis, which had been critiqued for overreliance on small teams of specialists prone to groupthink and confirmation bias.^[5] This effort stemmed from causal lessons drawn from major intelligence shortcomings, including the failure to anticipate the September 11, 2001, attacks—attributed partly to siloed information and probabilistic underestimation—and the erroneous 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, which highlighted systemic issues in aggregating uncertain evidence into predictive probabilities.^[6] IARPA structured ACE as a multi-year tournament among competing research teams, benchmarking crowd-sourced predictions against unaided intelligence community analysts to determine scalable improvements via empirical competition rather than theoretical advocacy.^[7] IARPA competitively awarded contracts to several university-led teams, selecting psychologists Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School to helm the Good Judgment Project (GJP) based on their complementary expertise in forecasting dynamics.^[7] Tetlock's foundational 2005 study in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Could We Ever Know? tracked 27,451 predictions from 284 experts in politics, economics, and related fields over years, revealing median accuracy no superior to lay benchmarks or random chance, with "hedgehogs"—those adhering rigidly to ideological paradigms—far underperforming integrative "foxes" who updated beliefs flexibly against disconfirming data. Mellers, a specialist in behavioral decision theory, brought insights from laboratory experiments on debiasing cognitive errors like overconfidence, providing a rigorous basis for designing interventions to elicit calibrated probabilities from untrained participants.^[7] Their selection reflected IARPA's emphasis on teams capable of first-principles experimentation: Tetlock's track record validated skepticism toward elite intuition, while Mellers' methods offered testable paths to probabilistic rigor, untainted by access to classified sources that might confound crowd wisdom assessments.^[8] Upon launch in 2011, the GJP established an online platform to recruit and engage thousands of volunteer forecasters from the general public, prioritizing diversity in backgrounds and viewpoints over specialized credentials to simulate broad aggregation unaffected by institutional echo chambers.^[3] Participants provided numerical probability estimates on approximately 500 predefined questions annually, centered on geopolitical developments—such as diplomatic outcomes, military actions, or economic shifts—calibrated for objective resolution by external sources within one to twelve months to enable rapid feedback loops and learning.^[1] This setup operationalized ACE's hypothesis that ordinary individuals, prompted to think probabilistically and aggregate via algorithms, could generate forecasts grounded in updated evidence rather than narrative-driven hunches, with recruitment amplified through media outreach to amass over 20,000 initial registrants by the tournament's early phases.^[8] The platform enforced real-time updates to predictions as new information emerged, fostering a controlled environment for causal analysis of judgment formation independent of hindsight bias or policy pressures.^[3]

Tournament Execution and Victory (2011-2015)

The Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament, sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), ran annually from 2011 to 2015, challenging teams to submit probabilistic forecasts on approximately 150-500 geopolitical, economic, and security questions per year, with resolutions typically within 12 months based on verifiable outcomes. The Good Judgment Project (GJP), led by researchers Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, and Lyle Ungar, entered as one of five initial competing teams alongside a control group of U.S. intelligence analysts; additional teams joined in later years, totaling up to nine competitors by the end. Forecasts were evaluated using Brier scores, which measure the mean squared difference between predicted probabilities and binary outcomes (lower scores indicate higher accuracy), emphasizing both calibration (alignment of stated probabilities with observed frequencies) and resolution (distinguishing likely from unlikely events).^[2] In Year 1 (2011), GJP recruited over 20,000 volunteers through public solicitation, soliciting individual forecasts without targeted interventions to establish an empirical baseline; aggregated predictions via simple averaging yielded Brier scores roughly on par with other entrants and the intelligence control group, demonstrating the viability of crowd aggregation from diverse amateurs but highlighting room for systematic improvement.^[3] From Year 2 onward (2012-2014), GJP iteratively tested interventions grounded in psychological research on judgment debiasing, including brief, self-paced online modules (about 30 minutes per session) that instructed forecasters on applying base rates (historical frequencies of similar events), reference class forecasting (drawing analogies from comparable past cases to inform priors), and Fermi estimation (breaking complex questions into multiplicative components for rough quantitative bounds, e.g., estimating event likelihood via order-of-magnitude calculations). These modules, delivered sporadically rather than as intensive courses, aimed to counter overreliance on inside views and narrative fallacies, with empirical tests showing standalone training effects of around 10% relative Brier score improvement over untrained baselines.^[9] Complementing training, GJP implemented teaming by assigning top performers to small groups (3-5 members) for asynchronous online discussions, encouraging evidence-based updates and reducing individual errors through collective deliberation; this boosted accuracy by an additional 13% relative to solo efforts. Aggregation protocols evolved to include extremizing, algorithmically adjusting crowd medians away from 50% toward 0% or 100% when arguments strongly favored one outcome, and weighted averaging favoring recent, revised forecasts from high performers. Across Years 2-4, these combined interventions—training, collaboration, and refined aggregation—produced cumulative Brier score reductions of 20-30% compared to Year 1 baselines, with progressive gains evident in sequential seasons as forecasters adapted through feedback on resolved questions.^[10] By tournament's end in 2015, GJP's overall Brier scores reflected approximately 60% greater accuracy relative to the Year 1 baseline and the intelligence community's unaided forecasts, outperforming all competing teams by 35-72% in aggregate resolution and calibration; this superiority held across question categories, validated by IARPA's independent scoring and cross-checked with logarithmic rules that penalize overconfidence.^[11]

Transition to Independent Research and Commercialization

Following the conclusion of the IARPA ACE program in 2015, Good Judgment Project leaders Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers published empirical analyses of the tournament's methods and outcomes in peer-reviewed journals, including a 2015 article in Perspectives on Psychological Science that detailed strategies for selecting and training superforecasters to enhance probabilistic accuracy.^[12] These publications synthesized data from over a million forecasts across 500 questions, emphasizing techniques like team aggregation and extremizing that contributed to the project's 30-60% superiority over baseline benchmarks.^[13] In late 2015, Tetlock and Mellers established Good Judgment Inc. as a private venture to extend the project's empirically validated approaches into applied forecasting beyond government sponsorship.^[14] This commercialization drew directly on ACE-derived insights, such as the identification of individuals exhibiting traits like active open-mindedness and numeracy, which early follow-up analyses affirmed as predictive of accuracy in diverse predictive tasks.^[13] Initial independent replications post-2015, including extensions through platforms like Good Judgment Open, tested superforecaster recruitment and training in non-geopolitical arenas such as economics and science, yielding consistent outperformance relative to untrained crowds and affirming the portability of core selection criteria.^[15] These efforts preserved methodological continuity from the tournament, prioritizing causal factors like deliberate practice over domain-specific expertise.

Methodology and Practices

Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques

The Good Judgment Project employed probabilistic forecasting as the foundational method for generating predictions, requiring forecasters to express uncertainty numerically, such as assigning a 70% probability to a binary event occurring by a specified date.^[10] These forecasts were evaluated using the Brier score, a quadratic measure that assesses accuracy by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes, with penalties for both incorrect directional predictions and overconfidence in high or low probabilities; scores range from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst), incentivizing well-calibrated estimates over binary yes/no assertions.^[16] ^[3] A core technique involved reference class forecasting, where forecasters identified analogous historical events or "comparison classes" to establish base rates, thereby grounding predictions in empirical precedents rather than unanchored intuition; for instance, analyzing past geopolitical resolutions to inform probabilities on similar conflicts.^[17] ^[3] This approach mitigated base-rate neglect, a common cognitive error, by prioritizing data-driven anchors over inside-view narratives.^[17] Forecasters also utilized Fermi estimation to decompose complex, quantitative questions into stepwise approximations, estimating intermediate variables—such as population sizes, rates, or proportions—to arrive at overall probabilities; this method, exemplified in breaking down queries like economic impacts into multiplicative factors, facilitated causal decomposition and revealed hidden uncertainties.^[18] ^[19] Predictions were refined through iterative Bayesian updating, where forecasters adjusted probabilities in response to new evidence, treating initial estimates as priors and incorporating posterior shifts via likelihood ratios to reflect evidential weight; this process emphasized dynamic responsiveness over static opinions, contrasting with the often unchanging expert judgments prevalent in traditional analysis.^[20] ^[3] Such updates occurred frequently, leveraging disconfirming data to challenge entrenched beliefs and promote causal realism in forecasting.^[19]

Participant Selection, Training, and Teaming

The Good Judgment Project recruited participants openly from the general public through channels such as professional societies, alumni associations, science blogs, and word-of-mouth referrals, emphasizing self-selection based on interest rather than specialized expertise.^[21] No prior forecasting or domain knowledge was required, though participants generally held at least a bachelor's degree; initial pools ranged from 2,200 to 3,900 forecasters annually across the 2011–2015 Aggregate Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament years.^[21] Selection occurred via performance on initial probabilistic forecasting tasks, prioritizing demonstrated accuracy and sustained participation to filter out chance performers, with top individuals advancing to enhanced conditions.^[3] This approach identified high-potential forecasters from diverse backgrounds, including amateurs without elite credentials, whose subsequent accuracy often surpassed that of credentialed analysts.^[13] Training consisted of brief, online cognitive-debiasing modules, typically under one hour in duration, delivered as randomized interventions within the tournament structure.^[9] Content focused on probabilistic reasoning, recognizing common pitfalls such as overconfidence in judgments and confirmation bias in evidence evaluation, alongside calibration exercises to align stated probabilities with observed outcomes.^[3] Randomized controlled trials embedded in the project demonstrated that trained forecasters achieved Brier score improvements of 6% to 11% relative to untrained controls, with effects persisting for at least one year across geopolitical questions.^[9] These gains stemmed from deliberate practice in debiasing techniques, enabling ordinary volunteers to refine judgments without relying on institutional expertise.^[13] Teaming involved assigning selected forecasters to small collaborative groups, often 7 to 20 members or elite subsets of around 12, where they engaged in structured deliberation to update forecasts.^[21] Protocols encouraged causal debate, aggregation of diverse perspectives, and sharing of external information like news updates, fostering error reduction through collective scrutiny rather than individual intuition.^[13] Empirical analysis showed teams produced lower Brier scores than solo forecasters, with heightened engagement—such as fivefold increases in comments and tenfold in shared resources—correlating with improved resolution and calibration.^[21] This process mitigated personal biases via interpersonal challenge, yielding accuracies that exceeded non-teamed baselines in the tournament.^[3]

Extremizing and Aggregation Methods

The Good Judgment Project utilized weighted aggregation algorithms to combine individual probabilistic forecasts, assigning greater influence to predictions from forecasters with superior historical accuracy and higher update frequency.^[3] This elitist weighting scheme departed from unweighted "wisdom of crowds" methods, which proved ineffective in control groups lacking targeted interventions, as those aggregates aligned closely with random benchmarks.^[3] Within teams, medians of member forecasts further mitigated outlier effects, drawing on evidence that collaborative aggregation enhances resolution by pooling diverse causal insights.^[21] Post-aggregation, the project applied extremizing transformations to counteract the observed tendency of crowd judgments to compress toward moderation, thereby restoring sharper estimates reflective of underlying evidential strength.^[22] This involved nonlinear adjustments via the function t(p) = \frac{p^a}{p^a + (1-p)^a} where a > 1, with the exponent a calibrated empirically—typically around 3.08 for nonexpert aggregates—to push probabilities closer to 0 or 1 based on forecaster diversity and error patterns.^[22] The rationale stemmed from two mechanisms: asymmetric random errors at extremes biasing means inward, and forecasters' habitual regression toward 0.5 amid informational gaps, both diluting collective confidence unless corrected.^[22] Validation on tournament data confirmed these refinements outperformed raw aggregates by enhancing calibration without introducing systematic overconfidence.^[22]^[3]

Empirical Findings and Superforecasters

Performance Metrics in the ACE Tournament

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy in the IARPA Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament from 2011 to 2015, evaluated primarily via the Brier score, a quadratic measure of probabilistic accuracy where lower values indicate better performance. Across more than 500 geopolitical questions spanning approximately 100-150 per year, GJP's aggregate Brier score averaged around 0.25, compared to approximately 0.35 for the no-training control group of ordinary forecasters, equating to a roughly 30% error reduction relative to the baseline.^[11] This outperformance exceeded IARPA's initial target of a 20% improvement in the first year, with GJP surpassing competing teams by 35-72% and U.S. intelligence analysts by over 30%.^[11] Domain-specific results highlighted strengths in politics and economics, where GJP's interventions yielded the most pronounced gains; for instance, forecasters accurately assessed low probabilities for Syrian regime use of chemical weapons against civilians in targeted scenarios, contributing to overall calibration in these areas. Performance remained superior but comparatively weaker in military events, such as predictions involving troop movements or conflict escalations, though still statistically better than controls due to aggregated probabilistic adjustments.^[23] These variations reflected the tournament's emphasis on diverse event types, with over 150,000 individual forecasts informing the metrics.^[24] Year-over-year improvements compounded through iterative interventions like probability training, team collaboration, and performance tracking, with trained GJP teams outperforming untrained counterparts by margins achieving statistical significance (p < 0.001) in both calibration and resolution components of the Brier score. In Year 1 (85 closed questions), GJP reduced errors by over 60% relative to controls; by Year 2 (114 questions), this rose to 78%, as tracking enabled top performers to refine judgments without regression.^[25] Such gains persisted across the four years, validating the efficacy of these methods on the tournament's evolving question set.^[3]

Traits and Profiles of Top Performers

Superforecasters, defined as the top 2% of participants in the Good Judgment Project's forecasting tournaments, demonstrated Brier scores 30% to 60% superior to the average forecaster across hundreds of geopolitical questions spanning 2011 to 2014.^[21] These individuals maintained their edge over multiple years without regressing to the mean, achieving superior calibration (average score of 0.01, indicating near-perfect alignment between stated probabilities and outcomes) and resolution (0.40 versus 0.32 for others).^[21] Unlike media-highlighted specialists, superforecasters often hailed from diverse, non-expert backgrounds, including students, retirees, and professionals without domain-specific credentials, comprising roughly 74% U.S. citizens with an average age of 40 and 64% holding postgraduate education.^[21] Regression analyses of forecaster data revealed that accuracy correlated with fluid intelligence (e.g., higher Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices scores, r ≈ -0.22 for Brier improvement) and crystallized intelligence, but these factors explained only part of the variance, plateauing beyond moderate levels where cognitive styles dominated.^[26] Actively open-minded thinking emerged as a key predictor (standardized β = -0.07, p < 0.03 in multiple regression models with R = 0.64), characterized by tolerance for ambiguity, inductive reasoning, and cognitive flexibility, enabling forecasters to integrate diverse evidence without premature closure.^[26]^[21] Need for cognition also factored positively, reflecting a disposition toward deliberate analysis over intuitive judgments. Humility and frequent belief revision causally enhanced performance, as superforecasters routinely conducted error postmortems, adjusted probabilities in response to new data (likened to habitual "belief flossing"), and quantified uncertainty numerically to avoid binary thinking.^[27] These practices, validated through experimental training interventions, reduced overconfidence and improved discrimination (AUC of 96% versus 75% for average forecasters), countering reliance on unexamined "gut feel" prevalent in policy and expert circles.^[21]^[27] Overall, dispositional profiles emphasizing openness and iterative updating—rather than raw intellect or expertise—distinguished top performers, with teamwork amplifying these traits via aggregation.^[13]

Comparative Accuracy Against Baselines and Experts

In the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) from 2011 to 2015, the Good Judgment Project (GJP) demonstrated superior accuracy relative to baselines such as random guessing and simple extrapolative models, achieving Brier scores that exceeded these benchmarks by factors of 2 to 3 across hundreds of geopolitical and economic questions.^[11] GJP's aggregated forecasts also outperformed expert aggregates from competing teams, including those leveraging domain specialists, by 35% to 72% in calibration and resolution metrics.^[11] This edge extended to comparisons with U.S. intelligence community analysts, where GJP forecasts proved over 30% more accurate on identical questions, even when analysts had access to classified information—a finding that aligns with prior research indicating that professional experts often perform no better than basic probabilistic baselines in long-range forecasting due to overconfidence and hedgehog-style thinking.^[11]^[28] Relative to prediction markets and crowdsourced platforms, GJP superforecasters exhibited particular strength in domains involving non-tradable geopolitical risks, such as civil unrest or diplomatic shifts, where market liquidity is limited and incentives for participation sparse.^[29] In direct tests against an internal intelligence community prediction market, GJP methods yielded 34.7% higher accuracy over 139 questions.^[30] While efficient financial markets remain superior for liquid assets like equities or commodities—showing no instances of superforecaster underperformance in applicable traded scenarios—GJP aggregates surpassed futures market benchmarks by up to 66% on eligible event types within the tournament.^[11] Post-tournament replications from 2016 to 2018, including longitudinal tracking of superforecaster cohorts on new question sets, confirmed sustained outperformance against expert and baseline comparators, with year-over-year performance correlations reaching 0.65, undermining attributions of initial results to transient luck or selection artifacts.^[3] These validations involved independent question resolution by third-party analysts and maintained calibration advantages of 20-30% over aggregated intelligence assessments in replicated geopolitical domains.^[31]

Criticisms and Debates

Challenges to Methodological Validity

Critics of the Good Judgment Project have highlighted potential selection bias in participant recruitment, noting that the initial pool consisted of self-selected volunteers who responded to public announcements and demonstrated sustained engagement, which may have enriched the sample with inherently motivated and capable individuals compared to unselected or general populations.^[32] This self-selection process, involving over 5,000 participants to identify approximately 260 superforecasters (top 2% performers), could inflate baseline forecasting accuracy relative to broader benchmarks, complicating causal attributions of interventions to observed improvements.^[32] Replications in smaller pools have raised questions about the causal impact of training protocols, with one study of 195 expert forecasters finding no statistically significant enhancement from an additional 20 minutes of training beyond initial exposure, despite modest shifts in median standardized accuracy scores (e.g., -0.437 for the trained group versus -0.252 for controls).^[32] Such findings suggest that gains attributed to debiasing modules in the original project—such as instruction on base rates, probabilistic reasoning, and updating beliefs—may partly reflect regression to the mean among initially variable performers rather than robust training-induced causality, as extreme early scores tend to moderate over repeated trials without intervention.^[32] The study emphasized that "training does not imply learning... nor can guarantee that taught methods... have been put in practice," underscoring challenges in isolating intervention effects from statistical artifacts.^[32] Debates persist over the extremizing component of aggregation, where forecasts are adjusted toward 0 or 1 based on forecaster diversity and historical calibration within the tournament dataset; some analysts argue this technique may exploit random noise in individual predictions or risk overfitting to the specific question set, potentially yielding inflated confidence without generalizable validity beyond the calibrated environment.^[3] In small-sample contexts, extremizing's reliance on optimized parameters derived from tournament data has been critiqued for lacking external validation, as it assumes consistent noise structures across diverse forecasting domains.^[31]

Questions on Scalability and Reproducibility

The Good Judgment Project identified approximately 260 superforecasters from an initial pool of around 5,000 participants across four years of the IARPA tournament, representing roughly the top 2% of performers.^[32] This constrained elite group, reliant on sustained high engagement from a motivated volunteer base, highlights practical limits on scalability; replicating such identification in organizational settings would demand comparable large-scale screening and retention efforts, which a 2020 study deemed resource-intensive under real-world constraints like limited time and incentives.^[32] Annual attrition among all forecasters ranged from 3% to 7%, while superforecaster retention hovered around 70% year-over-year, indicating that even among tops, consistent outperformance erodes without ongoing training and selection pressure.^[21]^[3] Efforts to reproduce superforecaster identification beyond the IARPA context have yielded mixed outcomes, often constrained by smaller pools and expedited timelines. In a 2020 experiment with 314 experts over just 9 months, only 2 individuals (top 2% of 195 fully engaged participants, following 36% attrition) met superforecaster criteria, providing supportive but qualified evidence amid engagement challenges absent tournament incentives like prizes.^[32] The study references Philip Tetlock's prior research, including 2005 analyses showing experts' forecasts degrading over time and failing to outperform benchmarks consistently, suggesting that superperformance may not reliably persist without the structured, high-stakes environment of the original project.^[32] These findings underscore reproducibility hurdles in non-subsidized applications, where dilution of accuracy occurs as participant quality varies without rigorous filtering. Superforecaster traits, including actively open-minded thinking, have been linked to slightly more moderate ideological profiles and lower dogmatism, potentially introducing representational biases by underweighting forecasts from ideological extremes.^[33]^[21] While this correlates with empirical accuracy in tournament data, it raises causal questions about whether aggregated superforecaster outputs systematically favor centrist priors, limiting applicability to polarized domains where outlier views might hold unresolved predictive value.^[33]

Alternative Explanations for Observed Improvements

Critics have argued that the Good Judgment Project's (GJP) observed forecasting improvements may partly stem from regression to the mean and early-period luck rather than solely from training or teaming interventions. In the Aggregate Contingency Estimation (ACE) tournament, GJP teams achieved strong Year 1 results, but skeptics posit that random variance could explain initial outperformance, with subsequent selection of "superforecasters" based on those outcomes creating an illusion of sustained skill; pessimistic analyses suggest superforecasters might regress toward average team performance if chance dominated early success.^[34] Although GJP data showed year-over-year correlations in forecaster rankings around 0.65 and retention of top status for about 70% of superforecasters, this consistency has been questioned as potentially driven by persistent high engagement—such as making 7.8 predictions per question versus 1.4 for others and clicking news links 255 times versus 58—rather than unique cognitive traits, implying self-selection of motivated participants inflated apparent edges.^[35] Selection on observed performance has also been cited as a form of cherry-picking, where tournament design favored teams benefiting from fortuitous early resolutions, and superforecaster identification relied on ex-post filtering from a pool of approximately 2,800 participants, potentially overlooking continuous variation in ability rather than discrete "super" categories.^[35] High attrition rates, around 7% in Year 1, and differential effort (e.g., superforecasters updating forecasts five times more frequently) introduce attrition bias, as disengaged forecasters may drop out or contribute minimally, skewing aggregates toward dedicated subsets without proving causal improvements from GJP methods.^[3] Comparisons to non-human baselines reveal limited evidence of probabilistic superiority attributable to GJP techniques. Aggregated superforecaster judgments have not consistently outperformed simple Bayesian models or statistical algorithms in controlled tests; for instance, coherence-adjusted Bayesian forecasts sometimes yielded higher accuracy than human ensembles in GJP analyses.^[36] Recent evaluations, including those by GJP affiliates, indicate that capable AI models often match or exceed solo human forecasters on geopolitical questions, with hybrid human-AI systems performing best, suggesting human elements like frequent updating may introduce noise or overfit to training data rather than add robust signal beyond mechanical aggregation.^[37]^[38] Ideological critiques highlight potential underweighting of tail risks in GJP's incrementalist approach, which emphasizes probabilistic updating and fox-like integration of evidence over bold, hedgehog-style warnings of systemic fragility. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has implicitly challenged such methods by arguing that normal-distribution assumptions in forecasting tournaments undervalue black-swan events—rare, high-impact shocks like financial crises—favoring preparation via antifragility over prediction, a view echoed in analyses claiming superforecasting fosters complacency toward extremes by prioritizing high-probability scenarios and calibrated medians.^[39]^[40] Right-leaning commentators, drawing on Taleb's framework, contend this bias toward gradualism mirrors institutional failures in anticipating disruptions, such as intelligence lapses on transformative geopolitical shifts, where overreliance on crowd wisdom dilutes vigilance for outlier causal chains.^[41] GJP's focus on short-to-medium-term geopolitical questions (mostly under two years) exacerbates this, as predictability declines sharply beyond five years due to nonlinear dynamics, limiting tests against fat-tailed realities.^[3]

Commercial Extension and Ongoing Work

Establishment of Good Judgment Inc.

Good Judgment Inc. was incorporated in 2015 by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers as a commercial extension of the Good Judgment Project, which concluded its IARPA-funded research phase that year after generating over one million forecasts across 500 questions. The firm capitalized on the project's validated intellectual property, including methods for extremizing probabilistic predictions and aggregating crowd judgments, to pivot toward private-sector consulting that applies these techniques to business decision-making under uncertainty. This shift enabled early engagements with corporations seeking to forecast risks such as market volatility and supply chain disruptions, distinct from the geopolitical focus of the original tournaments.^[1] Central to the company's initial offerings were superforecasting training programs, adapted from the Good Judgment Project's protocols that emphasized iterative feedback, base-rate awareness, and team deliberation to cultivate forecasters outperforming intelligence analysts. These programs were tested in client pilots, where proprietary applications reportedly yielded measurable gains in predictive accuracy for strategic planning, building directly on the research's causal evidence of skill acquisition through structured practice rather than innate expertise.^[42] In parallel, Good Judgment Inc. introduced the Good Judgment Open platform in 2015, a public crowdsourcing tool that preserved tournament-style scoring and resolution criteria to generate ongoing forecast data while serving as a talent pipeline for paid services. This launch facilitated the maintenance of empirical rigor in non-commercial settings, allowing the firm to refine aggregation algorithms with real-time inputs before scaling to confidential client needs.^[43]

Forecasting Services and Crowdsourcing Platforms

Good Judgment Inc. delivers bespoke forecasting services to clients in government, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector, utilizing networks of superforecasters to generate probabilistic assessments on targeted topics such as geopolitical risks, policy outcomes, and technological advancements.^[44] For instance, the firm has produced forecasts on U.S. foreign aid funding levels for evaluators like GiveWell, aiding resource allocation decisions through crowd-aggregated predictions from high-performing forecasters.^[45] In the domain of AI governance, superforecasters provide outlooks on milestones like international cooperation agreements and regulatory developments, emphasizing evidence-based probabilities over speculative narratives.^[46] These services extend to election-related challenges, where Good Judgment has fielded questions on outcomes such as national vote shares and seat distributions during the 2022-2024 cycles, with resolutions tracked against official results to refine future models.^[47] Client engagements often involve customized tournaments or dashboards that integrate qualitative analysis alongside quantitative scores, enabling decision-makers to quantify uncertainties in scenarios like policy implementation timelines.^[48] Complementing bespoke offerings, Good Judgment operates GJ Open, a public crowdsourcing platform that solicits probabilistic forecasts from thousands of participants worldwide on questions spanning economics, politics, and science, including projections for 2026 global elections.^[49]^[50] The platform aggregates crowd wisdom via mechanisms like weighted averaging of calibrated predictions, fostering broad participation while offering free training resources to enhance user accuracy. Paid tiers, such as FutureFirst subscriptions, grant access to professionally curated forecasts updated daily, team training modules, and performance benchmarking tools for organizational use.^[44] Internal empirical tracking underpins these platforms, with annual reviews—such as the 2023-2024 assessments—reporting consistent calibration scores among superforecasters, where predicted probabilities align closely with observed frequencies across resolved questions.^[51] However, proprietary client data restricts independent verification of aggregate outcomes, limiting external audits to publicly disclosed subsets like collaborations with outlets such as The Economist on annual world event predictions.^[47] This approach prioritizes operational reliability through iterative feedback loops, though full transparency remains constrained by commercial sensitivities.^[52]

Recent Applications and Developments (2016-2025)

Following the establishment of Good Judgment Inc., the organization's superforecasters applied their methods to a broadening array of domains beyond core geopolitical forecasting, including monetary policy shifts and technological risks, with empirical reviews demonstrating sustained outperformance against market benchmarks. In 2023, superforecasters achieved perfect accuracy (8/8) on predictions featured in The Economist's "The World Ahead" issue, encompassing volatile indicators such as economic growth trajectories and conflict continuations. By 2024, they scored 4.5 out of 8 on similar forecasts, correctly anticipating sub-5% GDP growth in China, the timing of Britain's general election, and the persistence of the Ukraine conflict, while adapting aggregation techniques to handle heightened election volatilities.^[53]^[54]^[55] Monetary policy applications gained prominence in 2023-2024, with superforecasters outperforming futures markets by approximately 30% on average for central bank rate decisions, including forecasts on Bank of England adjustments amid post-Brexit economic pressures. These efforts extended to U.S. [Federal Reserve](/page/Federal Reserve) dynamics indirectly through integrated economic modeling, where probabilistic assessments of rate paths informed client decision-making in volatile interest rate environments. Concurrently, new forecasting challenges emerged on export controls and regulatory hurdles for vehicle innovations, reflecting adaptability to sector-specific disruptions like supply chain constraints under U.S.-China trade tensions. Data from these periods highlighted the methodology's robustness, though reliant on a curated pool of approximately 100-200 active superforecasters, which imposed limits on scaling for real-time, high-volume predictions.^[51]^[47] By 2025, expansions into AI governance marked a pivotal development, with superforecasters issuing calibrated predictions on U.S.-China tech races that emphasized converging incentives—such as mutual reliance on chip supply chains—over zero-sum rivalry narratives prevalent in media coverage. Forecasts assessed the likelihood of multilateral agreements akin to "Chips for Peace" involving the U.S., China, UK, and others, assigning low probabilities to sweeping restrictions that could hinder U.S. competitiveness in AI development. These views contrasted with alarmist portrayals of an imminent AI arms race, prioritizing empirical signals like shared market stability interests; for instance, superforecasters estimated modest risks of power-seeking AI behaviors materializing before 2030, informed by iterative updates from historical tech adoption patterns. Partnerships proliferated for non-geopolitical risks, including collaborations with GiveWell for U.S. foreign aid projections and energy firms for regulatory forecasting, yielding datasets that validated cross-domain transferability while underscoring persistent challenges in pool size for bespoke, rapid-response applications.^[46]^[56]^[45]^[57]

Broader Impact and Legacy

Influence on Intelligence and Policy Forecasting

The Good Judgment Project's success in the IARPA-sponsored Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) tournament from 2011 to 2015, where it outperformed intelligence community benchmarks by over 30% in accuracy, prompted recommendations for integrating its probabilistic forecasting methods into U.S. intelligence practices.^[1] Post-tournament analyses highlighted the need for analysts to shift from deterministic narratives to probabilistic assessments, reducing tendencies toward overconfidence observed in traditional intelligence reporting. Tetlock and colleagues advocated this in their 2016 review, drawing on GJP data to propose training reforms that emphasize updating beliefs with evidence and expressing uncertainty in numerical probabilities, which trials indicated could enhance calibration without classified data access.^[13] In policy applications, Good Judgment Inc., the commercial successor to the project, has supplied calibrated forecasts on geopolitical risks, including pre-2022 assessments of Russia-Ukraine tensions that assigned moderate probabilities to escalation scenarios, differing from many expert analyses favoring binary outcomes.^[58] These outputs, aggregated from superforecaster teams, have informed client organizations on risk calibration, promoting nuanced views over polarized predictions common in policy discourse.^[59] Dissemination of superforecasting techniques through workshops has reached government analysts, with evidence from derived training programs showing measurable reductions in bias, such as a one-hour intervention improving probabilistic reasoning among national security professionals in randomized studies.^[60] Longitudinal evaluations of these methods, building on GJP's original findings, confirm modest but consistent gains in forecast calibration for institutional users, though scalability remains constrained by organizational inertia.^[61]

Implications for Cognitive Biases and Expert Overconfidence

The Good Judgment Project's forecasting tournaments provided empirical evidence challenging the presumption of expert superiority in probabilistic judgment, as superforecasters—typically non-specialist generalists—outperformed domain experts, including intelligence analysts with access to classified information, by approximately 30% in accuracy.^[28] This outcome reinforced Philip Tetlock's earlier hedgehog-fox dichotomy, where "foxes" who integrate diverse perspectives and update beliefs based on evidence achieved superior calibration and resolution compared to "hedgehogs" reliant on singular ideological frameworks, with foxes demonstrating meaningfully higher aggregate success rates in predictive tasks.^[62]^[63] In the tournaments, superforecasters' edge stemmed from causal updating—iteratively refining models against new data—rather than domain-specific intuition, highlighting how specialization often entrenches overconfidence without enhancing foresight.^[31] Project techniques explicitly targeted cognitive biases prevalent in expert forecasting, such as anchoring to initial estimates and narrative fallacies that prioritize coherent stories over probabilistic evidence.^[64] Superforecasters mitigated anchoring by systematically combining "inside" (case-specific) and "outside" (base-rate) views, fostering more realistic probability assignments and reducing the undue influence of first-encountered data.^[64] These methods countered narrative-driven errors, where forecasters—often in ideologically aligned institutions—construct overconfident scenarios that dismiss outlier risks, as evidenced by superforecasters' closer alignment to empirical outcomes in politically charged domains.^[3] Overconfidence emerged as a systemic flaw in human judgment, with tournament data showing regular forecasters consistently overprecise in their predictions, while superforecasters maintained near-perfect calibration through practiced humility and explicit uncertainty modeling.^[65] This humility enabled superior causal realism, as superforecasters treated beliefs as testable hypotheses, regularly revising them in response to disconfirming evidence rather than defending entrenched priors.^[21] Such findings underscore overconfidence not as isolated error but as a default mode amplified in elite settings, where accountability is low and ideological coherence substitutes for evidentiary rigor.^[66]

Long-Term Empirical Validation and Future Directions

Subsequent replications of the Good Judgment Project's core findings between 2016 and 2025 have largely affirmed the efficacy of identifying and cultivating superforecasters through talent-spotting, training, teaming, and aggregation, with approximately 70% of superforecasters retaining elite status across consecutive years in follow-up analyses.^[3]^[13] A 2021 experimental study involving 314 experts in a business forecasting context replicated the identification of rare superforecasters who outperformed baselines, supporting the scalability of these methods in constrained real-world settings without contradicting the original tournament results.^[67] No large-scale disconfirmations have emerged, though some analyses indicate potential diminishing marginal gains in highly familiar or saturated forecasting domains where initial expertise advantages erode over repeated iterations.^[3] Looking forward, integrations of superforecaster judgments with AI tools show promise for enhancing scalability, as demonstrated in Good Judgment Inc.'s 2023-2025 projects forecasting AI governance risks and power-seeking behaviors, where human probabilistic reasoning complemented machine-generated scenarios to refine long-horizon predictions.^[68]^[46] These hybrids address human limitations in processing vast data volumes while leveraging superforecasters' bias-correction skills, with empirical tests suggesting improved accuracy over either alone in volatile tech domains.^[69] Proposed expansions include dedicated tournaments on climate and technological risks to empirically test forecasting robustness against domain-specific uncertainties, building on the project's geopolitical successes.^[70] An unresolved empirical question pertains to the role of ideological diversity among forecasters, as homogeneous groups risk centrist biases that underweight black-swan events influenced by polarized dynamics; tournaments incorporating viewpoint diversity have reduced partisan forecasting errors, underscoring the need for randomized trials to quantify its causal impact on tail-risk calibration.^[71]^[72] Future validations should prioritize such designs to distinguish skill from selection effects in diverse cohorts.

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