2019 Nobel Peace Prize
The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Abiy Ahmed Ali, Prime Minister of Ethiopia since April 2018, "for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea."[1] Announced on 11 October 2019 by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, the prize recognized Abiy's rapid diplomatic overtures after assuming office, including initiating peace talks with Eritrea, signing a comprehensive peace agreement in Asmara on 9 July 2018, and unconditionally accepting the 2002 ruling of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission to demarcate their disputed border.[1] These steps ended a two-decade stalemate following the 1998–2000 Eritrean–Ethiopian War, which had resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and ongoing military mobilization.[1] Abiy's award also acknowledged his domestic reforms, such as lifting a state of emergency, releasing thousands of political prisoners, discontinuing media censorship, legalizing exiled opposition groups, and appointing a gender-balanced cabinet with half its positions held by women, alongside pledges for democratic elections.[1] Regionally, he facilitated the normalization of relations between Eritrea and Djibouti, mediated aspects of Sudan's transition to civilian rule, and supported dialogue in the Kenya-Somalia maritime boundary dispute.[1] The Committee emphasized that these initiatives deserved encouragement amid Ethiopia's ethnic tensions and over three million internally displaced persons at the time.[1] The prize's legacy has been complicated by subsequent developments, particularly the Tigray War that erupted in November 2020 between federal forces under Abiy's leadership and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a regional party that had dominated Ethiopian politics prior to his rise and refused integration into his reform agenda.[2] The conflict, triggered by TPLF's conduct of unauthorized regional elections and an attack on a federal military command post, escalated into widespread fighting, humanitarian crises, and mutual accusations of atrocities, including ethnic targeting and civilian suffering.[2] In January 2022, the Norwegian Nobel Committee issued a rare public admonition, stating that as Prime Minister and Peace Prize laureate, Abiy "has a special responsibility to end the conflict and contribute to peace," while standing by the original award but expressing concern over the humanitarian toll.[3] A Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022 formally ended major hostilities, though implementation challenges persist.[4]Historical and Geopolitical Context
Ethiopian-Eritrean Border Conflict
The border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea originated from ambiguities in the demarcation of their shared frontier following Eritrea's formal independence in 1993, after decades of Ethiopian administration over Eritrean territories acquired during colonial and imperial eras. Disputes centered on areas like Badme, a sparsely populated district in the Tigray region administered by Ethiopia but claimed by Eritrea under Italian colonial maps from the 1900s and 1908 treaties with Ethiopia. On May 6, 1998, Eritrean forces launched an incursion into Badme, seizing the town and prompting Ethiopian mobilization, which escalated minor clashes into full-scale war.[5][6][7] The ensuing Eritrean-Ethiopian War, often called the Badme War, involved intense trench and conventional battles along a 1,000-kilometer front, with both sides deploying hundreds of thousands of troops and suffering heavy losses from artillery, air strikes, and ground assaults. Ethiopia, leveraging its larger population and resources, launched major offensives in 1999 and 2000, recapturing Badme and advancing into Eritrean territory before a ceasefire on June 18, 2000. Casualties were staggering, with estimates ranging from 70,000 to over 100,000 military deaths combined—Eritrea reporting around 19,000 and Ethiopia between 34,000 and 60,000—alongside economic costs exceeding $1 billion per side and displacement of up to 650,000 people.[8][9][10] The Algiers Agreement, signed on December 12, 2000, ended active hostilities and established the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) under UN auspices to delimit and demarcate the border. The EEBC's 2002 ruling largely favored Eritrea's claims, awarding Badme to Eritrea, but Ethiopia rejected the decision as unjust and refused implementation, opting instead for "final and binding" arbitration only on its terms. This impasse ushered in a "no war, no peace" stalemate lasting until 2018, characterized by mutual militarization of border areas, Ethiopia's de facto occupation of disputed territories, and Eritrea's indefinite national service conscription amid international isolation, including UN sanctions imposed in 2009 for alleged support of Somali insurgents. The period strained both economies, fueled proxy conflicts in the Horn of Africa, and maintained a fragile deterrence with over 300,000 troops deployed along the frontier, as documented by UN peacekeeping missions like UNMEE until its 2008 withdrawal.[11][12][13]Abiy Ahmed's Ascension to Power
Ethiopia's political landscape in early 2018 was marked by widespread protests, particularly in the Oromo and Amhara regions, which had escalated since 2015 against the dominance of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) within the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. These demonstrations, fueled by grievances over land rights, ethnic federalism imbalances, and authoritarian governance, led to hundreds of deaths and the imposition of a state of emergency in October 2016.[14] In response to mounting pressure, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned on February 15, 2018, from both his position as head of government and EPRDF chairman, stating that his departure would facilitate necessary reforms to address the crisis.[15] [16] The resignation prompted the EPRDF's four ethnic-based parties—Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), TPLF, and Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM)—to select a successor amid internal power struggles.[17] Abiy Ahmed, an ethnic Oromo with a background in military intelligence and as minister of science and technology since 2016, emerged as a reformist candidate backed by the OPDO, which had gained influence from the Oromo protests. On February 22, 2018, the OPDO central committee elected Abiy as its chairman, replacing Lemma Megersa, positioning him as a key contender for EPRDF leadership.[18] The EPRDF Executive Committee then convened and, on March 27, 2018, selected Abiy as the coalition's chairman by consensus, bypassing a vote after initial disagreements, with support from OPDO and ANDM outweighing TPLF reservations.[18] [19] This marked a shift away from TPLF's long-held control, reflecting the coalition's response to public demands for change.[20] On April 2, 2018, Ethiopia's House of Peoples' Representatives unanimously approved Abiy as prime minister, making him the youngest leader in the country's modern history at age 41.[14] His ascension was viewed as a potential turning point, with Abiy promising liberalization, ethnic reconciliation, and economic openness in his inaugural address, which resonated amid the ongoing state of emergency extended until June 2018.[21] Initial actions, such as releasing political prisoners and dismissing hardline security officials, bolstered his domestic support and set the stage for foreign policy initiatives, including rapprochement with Eritrea.[14]Nomination and Selection
Eligible Nominators and Process
Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize are restricted to qualified individuals and entities as stipulated in the statutes of the Nobel Foundation. Eligible nominators include members of national assemblies, governments, and cabinets of sovereign states, as well as current heads of state; members of international courts such as the International Court of Justice and the Permanent Court of Arbitration; members of l'Institut de Droit International; members of the International Board of the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom; university professors, emeriti, and associate professors in fields including history, social sciences, philosophy, law, theology, and religion, along with university rectors and directors of peace or foreign policy institutes; former Nobel Peace Prize laureates; members of the main boards of Nobel Peace Prize-winning organizations; current and former members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (with current members required to submit proposals by the first committee meeting after February 1); and former advisers to the Norwegian Nobel Committee.[22][23] Self-nominations are invalid, and no invitation is required to submit a nomination, distinguishing the Peace Prize from other Nobel categories.[23] The nomination process commences in September or October each year, when the Norwegian Nobel Institute provides access to an online submission form, though postal submissions are also accepted. Nominations must be received by January 31 of the award year; for the 2019 prize, this deadline was January 31, 2019. Each nomination requires a detailed justification, including evidence of the candidate's contributions to fraternity between nations, abolition or reduction of standing armies, or promotion of peace congresses, aligning with Alfred Nobel's will. Approximately 300-350 nominations are typically received annually, encompassing individuals, organizations, or institutions actively promoting peace.[24][23][25] Confidentiality is strictly enforced: the names of nominees and nomination details remain secret for 50 years, preventing public speculation from influencing deliberations and protecting candidates from undue pressure. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, appointed by the Norwegian Parliament and consisting of five members, receives all valid nominations from the Nobel Institute. The committee then shortlists candidates between February and March, appoints advisers for in-depth reviews from March to August, and reaches a decision by simple majority vote—consensus preferred but not required—typically between mid-August and late September, with the announcement in early October.[23][24][26]Known Candidates and Speculation
The Norwegian Nobel Committee received 301 nominations for the 2019 prize, including 223 individuals and 78 organizations.[27] Nominations remain confidential for 50 years unless publicly disclosed by nominators, limiting official knowledge of candidates to revealed cases and informed speculation.[23] Public nominations highlighted leaders involved in recent diplomatic resolutions. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and North Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev were nominated by 33 Members of the European Parliament for negotiating the Prespa Agreement, which ended a decades-long dispute over North Macedonia's name and facilitated its NATO and EU integration path.[28] [29] Tunisian 2015 Nobel laureate Wided Bouchamaoui also nominated Zaev and Tsipras for the same achievement.[30] Media coverage and betting markets centered on climate activism, with 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg emerging as the leading favorite due to her global mobilization against environmental threats framed as security risks.[31] [32] Bookmakers like William Hill listed Thunberg at short odds, reflecting public sentiment linking climate action to peace.[31] Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ranked second in some odds for initiating reconciliation with Eritrea after two decades of conflict.[31] Expert analyses from institutions like the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) speculated on diverse figures, including Abiy Ahmed for regional peace initiatives, Somali-Canadian activist Ilwad Elman for youth disarmament efforts, Libyan activist Hajer Sharief for promoting UN youth resolutions, and Hong Kong pro-democracy leader Nathan Law for nonviolent advocacy.[33] PRIO also highlighted organizations such as Reporters Without Borders for defending press freedom in conflicts and the Control Arms Coalition for advancing global arms trade regulations.[33] These speculations emphasized empirical contributions to conflict prevention over broader symbolic campaigns.[33]