Forced displacement
Forced displacement is the coerced or involuntary movement of individuals and communities from their homes or habitual places of residence due to persecution, armed conflict, generalized violence, human rights violations, or events severely disturbing public order, encompassing categories such as refugees, asylum-seekers, and internally displaced persons.[1] By the end of 2024, the global total reached 123.2 million forcibly displaced people, marking a record high and equivalent to roughly one in every 67 individuals worldwide.[1] This figure includes 73.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) who remain within their countries, 42.7 million refugees who have crossed international borders, and 8.4 million asylum-seekers, with children comprising about 40% of the displaced population.[1] The phenomenon has escalated dramatically since the early 2010s, driven primarily by protracted armed conflicts in regions like sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, which account for the largest shares of new displacements, alongside contributions from natural disasters and generalized violence.[2] Empirical data indicate that conflict remains the dominant cause, with over 70% of refugees originating from just five countries—Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar, and Sudan—as of late 2024, underscoring the role of state failure, ethnic strife, and civil wars in generating mass exoduses.[1] While disasters exacerbate displacement, particularly internal movements, their effects are often more transient compared to conflict-induced flows, which frequently lead to long-term uprooting and dependency on international aid systems.[2] Forced displacement poses profound challenges, including humanitarian crises, economic burdens on host communities, and geopolitical tensions over border management and repatriation, with limited durable solutions as only a fraction return voluntarily or achieve local integration or resettlement annually.[3] Notable historical instances, such as wartime deportations during World War II, highlight its use as a deliberate tactic of ethnic cleansing or population control, though contemporary cases increasingly involve non-state actors and asymmetric warfare.[4] Addressing root causes requires stabilizing conflict zones and enhancing governance, yet persistent underfunding of protection mechanisms and host country capacities amplifies vulnerabilities.[3]Definitions and Terminology
Core Concepts and Legal Definitions
Forced displacement refers to the involuntary or coerced movement of individuals or groups from their homes or habitual places of residence due to armed conflict, persecution, generalized violence, human rights violations, or natural and human-made disasters, distinguishing it from voluntary migration driven by economic or personal choice.[4][5] This phenomenon encompasses both cross-border and internal movements, with the former falling under refugee law and the latter under protections for internally displaced persons (IDPs). International humanitarian law generally prohibits forced displacement of civilians, permitting it only in exceptional cases such as imperative military reasons or for their safety or imperative humanitarian needs, as outlined in the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 and Additional Protocol II of 1977.[6][4] The legal definition of a refugee originates from the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, which describes a refugee as any person who, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside their country of nationality and is unable or unwilling to avail themselves of that country's protection.[7] This definition, expanded by the 1967 Protocol to remove temporal and geographical limitations, forms the cornerstone of international refugee protection and imposes obligations on states, including the principle of non-refoulement, which bars returning refugees to places where their lives or freedoms would be threatened.[8] Asylum seekers, by contrast, are individuals who have fled their countries and formally requested international protection, pending determination of their refugee status under the same framework.[9] Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are defined in the 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement as persons or groups who have been forced or obliged to flee or leave their homes or places of habitual residence, particularly due to armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights, or natural or human-made disasters, without crossing an internationally recognized state border.[10] Unlike refugees, IDPs remain under the primary responsibility of their own government, though these principles draw from binding international human rights and humanitarian law to guarantee protections such as freedom from arbitrary displacement, access to assistance, and safe return or resettlement.[11] The Guiding Principles, while non-binding, represent a consolidated normative framework influencing state practice and regional instruments, such as the African Union's 2009 Convention for IDP protection.[12] These definitions underscore causal distinctions: forced displacement requires compulsion by external threats rather than self-initiated relocation, with legal status hinging on verified fear of harm and inability to return safely. Empirical data from UNHCR tracks global forced displacement at over 117 million people as of mid-2024, highlighting the scale while emphasizing that protections apply only upon meeting evidentiary thresholds under international standards.[2][9]Key Distinctions Among Categories
Forced displacement encompasses several distinct categories, primarily differentiated by the voluntariness of movement, the crossing of international borders, legal status, and underlying causes. At its core, forced displacement involves the involuntary movement of individuals or groups due to compulsion, coercion, or lack of viable alternatives, contrasting sharply with voluntary migration, which stems from personal choice driven by economic opportunities, family reunification, or improved living conditions without existential threats. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) defines forced migration as a migratory movement involving force, compulsion, or coercion, often rooted in persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or human rights violations, whereas voluntary migration lacks such coercive elements and typically allows for return without peril.[13][2] A primary legal and operational distinction lies between refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Refugees are individuals who have crossed an international border owing to a well-founded fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group, or political opinion, as codified in the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol; they receive international protection, including non-refoulement (prohibition on return to danger). In contrast, IDPs remain within their country of nationality or habitual residence, having fled similar threats such as armed conflict, violence, or disasters, but lack the same binding international legal framework; their protection falls under national authorities, guided by the non-binding 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. As of 2023, UNHCR reported over 36 million refugees globally compared to approximately 71 million IDPs, highlighting the scale disparity and IDPs' greater vulnerability to domestic governmental failures.[14][15] Asylum seekers represent a transitional category within the refugee framework: they are persons who have fled across borders and formally applied for international protection but whose refugee status has not yet been determined by the host state or UNHCR. Not all asylum seekers are granted refugee status; rejection rates vary by country and claim validity, with only about 40% of applications approved worldwide in recent years according to UNHCR data. This differs from economic migrants or immigrants, who move without claiming persecution and thus receive no such protections, emphasizing that refugee status requires evidentiary proof of individualized risk rather than generalized hardship.[13][16] Further distinctions arise from causal factors, dividing forced displacement into conflict-induced (e.g., war or persecution driving refugees and IDPs) and disaster-induced (e.g., natural calamities or environmental degradation forcing movement without necessarily invoking persecution-based rights). Conflict-induced cases often involve deliberate targeting or breakdown of state protection, qualifying for durable solutions like resettlement, while disaster-induced displacements—such as those from floods or earthquakes—may be temporary and addressed through humanitarian aid rather than long-term status grants, though overlap exists in protracted climate-related conflicts. Human-induced non-conflict factors, like development projects displacing communities for infrastructure (e.g., dams), add another layer, often lacking international recourse and resulting in "development-induced displacement" without formal refugee protections. These categories underscore that while all forced displacements entail loss of agency, legal remedies and data tracking differ markedly, with UNHCR focusing on cross-border flows and the IOM advocating broader inclusion of coerced movements.[2][2]Historical Development of the Term
The term "displaced person" (DP) emerged during World War II to describe civilians uprooted from their homes by combat, forced labor, or persecution, particularly in Europe, with the Allies adopting it formally in 1945 to categorize millions liberated from Nazi camps and other sites.[17] By war's end, approximately 11 million DPs required assistance, leading to the establishment of camps in Germany, Austria, and Italy managed initially by the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration (UNRRA) and later by the International Refugee Organization (IRO) in 1946.[18] This terminology emphasized involuntary movement due to conflict, distinguishing DPs from voluntary migrants or prisoners of war, though it initially focused on those outside their national borders or in transit.[19] Post-1945, the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees narrowed legal protections to those crossing international borders owing to persecution, leaving internally uprooted populations without equivalent recognition, as the refugee framework excluded those remaining within their countries.[20] The rise of intra-state conflicts in the 1970s and 1980s, such as in Sudan and Afghanistan, highlighted this gap, prompting ad hoc responses from organizations like UNHCR, which began addressing "internal displacement" without a standardized term until the late 1980s.[21] The phrase "internally displaced persons" (IDPs) gained traction in the early 1990s, formalized in the UN's 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, which defined IDPs as persons compelled to flee their homes due to armed conflict, generalized violence, or human rights violations but not crossing borders.[12] The broader term "forced displacement" evolved in the mid-1990s as an umbrella concept encompassing both refugees and IDPs, reflecting UNHCR's expanded mandate to track global trends in involuntary uprooting amid escalating civil wars and humanitarian crises.[22] This usage allowed for comprehensive statistics, such as UNHCR's reporting of rising numbers since the mid-1990s, driven by conflicts in regions like the Balkans and the Great Lakes area of Africa, where internal and cross-border movements blurred traditional categories.[22] Unlike earlier DP terminology tied to wartime Europe, "forced displacement" incorporates diverse causes including persecution, violence, and later climate factors, though it remains descriptive rather than conferring specific legal status.[2]Historical Context
Ancient and Pre-Modern Instances
Forced displacement in ancient times often served imperial strategies of control, labor redistribution, and cultural assimilation, particularly in the Near East where empires like Assyria systematically deported conquered populations to weaken resistance and repopulate underadministered regions. During the Neo-Assyrian Empire (911–609 BCE), kings such as Tiglath-Pileser III (r. 745–727 BCE) intensified these practices, deporting tens of thousands from Syria, Israel, and Phoenicia to Assyria and Media, with records indicating over 100,000 relocations in campaigns between 744 and 727 BCE to address manpower shortages from wars and to integrate skilled workers like artisans into Assyrian society.[23] Sargon II (r. 722–705 BCE) continued this, notably exiling 27,290 inhabitants of Samaria after conquering the Kingdom of Israel in 722 BCE, resettling them across the empire while importing foreigners to the depopulated area, a policy that fragmented ethnic identities and sustained Assyrian dominance until its fall.[24] The Neo-Babylonian Empire (626–539 BCE) employed similar tactics, exemplified by the conquest of Judah under Nebuchadnezzar II (r. 605–562 BCE), who in 597 BCE deported around 7,000–10,000 Judean elites, including King Jehoiachin, to Babylon following the siege of Jerusalem, and in 586 BCE razed the city and Temple, exiling additional waves totaling perhaps 20,000–40,000 people, primarily artisans, priests, and nobility, to Mesopotamia, leaving the land sparsely populated by the poor.[25] This Babylonian Captivity disrupted Judean society, fostering exile communities that preserved cultural and religious practices amid forced assimilation pressures, until Persian conquest allowed partial returns after 539 BCE.[26] Earlier precedents existed, such as Hittite deportations under Tudhaliya I/II (r. ca. 1420–1400 BCE), where captives from Arzawa in western Anatolia were relocated to the Hittite heartland to bolster labor and military forces.[27] Invasions in Eurasia during the pre-modern era amplified displacement on continental scales, as nomadic confederations razed settled societies, driving survivors into flight or enslavement. The Mongol conquests from 1206–1368 CE under Genghis Khan (r. 1206–1227 CE) and his successors devastated regions from China to Eastern Europe, sacking cities like Baghdad in 1258 CE (killing up to 1 million and displacing survivors across the Islamic world) and inducing mass exoduses in Persia and Kievan Rus', where population losses exceeded 30–50% in affected areas, prompting migrations of artisans, merchants, and refugees to safer realms like the Ottoman precursors.[28] These campaigns relocated skilled populations to Mongol capitals like Karakorum for administrative needs, while famine and disease from disrupted agriculture forced secondary displacements, altering demographic maps and facilitating later Silk Road integrations.[29] Medieval religious and political expulsions in Europe targeted minorities for ideological uniformity, often combining displacement with conversion mandates. The 1492 Alhambra Decree by Spain's Catholic Monarchs Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabella I of Castile ordered the expulsion of practicing Jews, affecting an estimated 200,000–300,000 individuals (about 2–5% of Spain's population), who faced departure by July 31 or conversion, leading to migrations to Portugal (initially, before 1497 expulsion there), Italy, North Africa, and the Ottoman Empire, with tens of thousands perishing en route from hardship or piracy.[30] This event, rooted in Reconquista completion and Inquisition pressures, depleted Spain's mercantile and intellectual classes, contributing to economic stagnation despite short-term confiscation gains, and scattered Sephardic communities that influenced host societies through trade networks.[31] Earlier, Byzantine warfare in the 7th–11th centuries involved deporting captives from Armenia and Syria for enslavement or resettlement, while Persian Sassanid deportations (e.g., from Armenia ca. 5th–7th CE) relocated populations to Iran for strategic buffering against rivals.[32] These instances highlight forced displacement as a recurring mechanism of power consolidation, often yielding long-term cultural diasporas rather than total eradication.20th Century Mass Displacements
The 20th century saw numerous instances of mass forced displacement, driven primarily by interstate wars, genocidal campaigns, civil conflicts, and state policies of ethnic reconfiguration, affecting tens of millions across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. These events often involved deliberate deportations, flight from violence, and compulsory population exchanges, with death tolls in the millions exacerbating the scale of uprooting. Empirical estimates, drawn from demographic records and postwar censuses, indicate that such displacements reshaped national borders and demographics, frequently as a means to consolidate control or exact retribution following territorial losses.[33][34] In the Ottoman Empire during World War I, the 1915–1916 campaign against Armenians resulted in the deportation of over 1 million people, with systematic marches into the Syrian desert causing an estimated 664,000 to 1.2 million deaths from starvation, disease, and massacres; surviving Armenians were largely displaced to Russia, Persia, or diaspora communities abroad.[35][36] The subsequent 1923 Treaty of Lausanne formalized a compulsory population exchange between Greece and Turkey, relocating approximately 1.2 million Greek Orthodox Christians from Anatolia to Greece and 400,000 Muslims from Greece to Turkey, in an effort to resolve ethnic tensions amid Greco-Turkish War aftermath; this affected about 20% of Greece's population and led to the abandonment of over 1,500 Greek villages.[37][38] Soviet internal policies under Joseph Stalin from the 1930s to 1950s entailed the deportation of millions, including kulaks during collectivization (over 1 million by 1933) and entire ethnic groups such as Volga Germans (over 400,000 in 1941), Chechens and Ingush (nearly 500,000 in 1944), and Crimean Tatars (around 200,000 in 1944), to remote labor settlements in Siberia and Central Asia; mortality rates during transit reached 20–40% for some groups due to exposure and inadequate provisions.[39][40] World War II triggered further upheavals, including the flight and expulsion of 12–14 million ethnic Germans from Eastern European territories (Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary) between 1944 and 1950, sanctioned by Allied agreements at Potsdam; roughly 500,000 to 2 million perished from violence, starvation, and disease during these organized transfers aimed at securing Polish and Soviet borders.[41][42] The 1947 partition of British India into India and Pakistan displaced 14–15 million people along religious lines, as Hindus and Sikhs migrated eastward from Punjab and Bengal while Muslims moved westward, accompanied by communal riots killing up to 1 million; this remains one of the largest short-term migrations in history, straining nascent states' capacities for resettlement.[43][44] In the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, approximately 700,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled from areas becoming Israel, known as the Nakba, with over 400 villages depopulated; concurrent Jewish displacements from Arab states numbered around 800,000 by 1951, though the Palestinian exodus created enduring refugee populations in neighboring countries.[45][46] These episodes highlight how forced displacement in the 20th century often served strategic imperatives, with long-term socioeconomic disruptions for affected populations.[47]Post-1945 Evolution and Cold War Era
The immediate aftermath of World War II saw the resolution of Europe's largest displacement crisis, with approximately 40 million people uprooted by May 1945, many repatriated through organizations like the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration and the International Refugee Organization, which dissolved in 1952 after resettling about 1.6 million refugees.[48][49] This period marked the transition from ad hoc wartime responses to a formalized international framework, culminating in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) established by UN General Assembly Resolution 428(V) on December 14, 1950, with an initial three-year mandate and modest budget to assist roughly 1.5 million non-settled European refugees ineligible for IRO aid.[50] The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, ratified by 145 states as of 2023 but initially Europe-focused and limited to pre-1951 events, codified the refugee definition as individuals fearing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, social group, or political opinion, excluding broader causes like general civil strife.[8] During the Cold War (roughly 1947–1991), forced displacements increasingly reflected superpower rivalries, proxy conflicts, and decolonization, shifting the refugee regime from a Eurocentric, temporary apparatus to a global, politicized institution often aligned with Western anti-communist objectives. UNHCR's role expanded amid crises such as the 1956 Hungarian uprising, where Soviet intervention prompted 200,000 refugees to flee primarily to Austria and Yugoslavia, with 180,000 resettled in 37 countries through UNHCR coordination, highlighting the agency's utility in ideological propaganda as Western states prioritized admissions from Soviet bloc escapes.[51][52] Similarly, the 1968 Prague Spring suppression in Czechoslovakia drove 300,000 exiles westward, while the 1961 Berlin Crisis saw over 2.7 million East Germans flee before the Wall's construction, underscoring how Iron Curtain divisions institutionalized cross-border flight as a Cold War symptom.[53] In Asia, the Korean War (1950–1953) displaced an estimated 1.2 million civilians southward, many becoming long-term internal displacees or crossing into safer zones, with UNHCR providing limited aid amid U.S.-led resettlements.[54] Decolonization amplified displacements in the Global South, where UNHCR's mandate strained against its original European focus, leading to expansions like the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, which removed temporal and geographic restrictions and enabled coverage of post-1951 events worldwide, ratified by over 146 states.[8] African independence struggles, such as the Algerian War (1954–1962) displacing 2 million internally and prompting 150,000 to Tunisia and Morocco, and Portuguese colonial wars in Angola and Mozambique (1961–1974) generating over 1.5 million refugees, prompted regional instruments like the 1969 OAU Convention, broadening refugee status to include those fleeing generalized violence or public order disturbances beyond individual persecution.[55] In Latin America, the 1984 Cartagena Declaration extended protections to those escaping massive human rights violations, accommodating flights from civil conflicts in Central America tied to U.S.-Soviet proxies. Cuban outflows post-1959 revolution totaled over 1.4 million by 1994, with U.S. policies like the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act facilitating admissions as a counter to Castro's regime.[56] The Vietnam War's end in 1975 triggered the exodus of 1.6 million Indochinese "boat people" by 1991, resettled mainly in the U.S. and Australia under UNHCR programs, though initial Western reluctance reflected geopolitical calculations favoring anti-communist narratives.[54] Geopolitics permeated the regime's evolution, with UNHCR's funding—predominantly Western—prioritizing refugees from communist states (e.g., over 3 million admitted to the U.S. from 1945–2000, mostly from Eastern Europe and Indochina), while displacements in non-aligned or pro-Soviet contexts, such as Palestinian Arabs after 1948 (around 700,000 initially) or internal African upheavals, received comparatively less institutionalized support, revealing causal links between donor interests and aid allocation rather than neutral humanitarianism.[53] By the 1980s, global refugee numbers exceeded 15 million under UNHCR care, up from 2.3 million in 1951, driven by protracted conflicts like Afghanistan's Soviet invasion (1979–1989), which displaced 6 million externally, mostly to Pakistan and Iran.[51] This era entrenched the distinction between externally assisted refugees and overlooked internally displaced persons (IDPs), whose numbers—estimated in tens of millions by war's end—lacked equivalent legal frameworks until post-Cold War developments, reflecting the regime's reactive adaptation to state-centric sovereignty norms over comprehensive protection.[57]Primary Causes
Conflict, Persecution, and Violence
Armed conflicts, encompassing interstate wars, civil wars, and insurgencies, constitute a primary driver of forced displacement by generating immediate threats to civilian life through combat operations, aerial bombardments, and ground assaults. In 2024, conflict and violence triggered 20.1 million new internal displacements worldwide, contributing to the overall total of 65.8 million new displacements that year.[58] By the end of 2024, the global forcibly displaced population reached 123.2 million, with persecution, conflict, violence, and human rights violations as the cited causes, though conflict predominates in generating mass exoduses.[59] Persecution, involving targeted discrimination or extermination campaigns against specific ethnic, religious, or political groups, often overlaps with conflict but can occur in peacetime or as a tactic within it, compelling flight to avert capture, torture, or death. Examples include the 2017 Rohingya crisis, where Myanmar's military operations displaced over 740,000 to Bangladesh amid reports of village burnings and mass killings framed as ethnic cleansing.[60] Similarly, the Taliban's 2021 takeover in Afghanistan displaced millions internally and externally, with targeted killings of former government affiliates, ethnic Hazaras, and religious minorities like Sikhs accelerating outflows.[59] Recent escalations underscore conflict's role: Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted over 6 million refugees to flee by mid-2022, primarily to Europe, alongside 4 million internal displacements amid shelling of civilian areas. In Sudan, the April 2023 outbreak of fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces generated the world's largest displacement crisis of that year, with 7.7 million internally displaced and over 2 million refugees by 2025, driven by urban battles and ethnic targeting in Darfur.[61] These cases illustrate how asymmetric warfare and scorched-earth tactics amplify displacement, with civilians comprising over 90% of casualties in modern conflicts per UN estimates. Generalized violence, distinct from organized conflict yet often intertwined, includes gang warfare and cartel activities forcing migration, particularly in Central America where homicide rates exceeding 50 per 100,000 in countries like Honduras in the early 2020s displaced tens of thousands annually as non-combatants sought safety.[3] Empirical data from UNHCR operations reveal that protracted conflicts, such as Syria's ongoing civil war since 2011, sustain displacement of 6.8 million refugees and 6.9 million IDPs as of 2024, with violence against civilians—including chemical attacks and sieges—preventing returns. Causal analysis indicates that weak state institutions and resource competitions exacerbate these dynamics, leading to self-reinforcing cycles of violence and flight rather than isolated incidents.Natural Disasters and Climate Events
Forced displacement from natural disasters arises when rapid-onset hazards, including floods, storms, earthquakes, and tsunamis, render living areas uninhabitable, prompting immediate evacuations to protect life and safety. These events destroy homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods, often affecting densely populated vulnerable regions in developing countries where adaptive capacity is limited by poverty and inadequate building standards. Unlike gradual environmental shifts, such displacements are typically short-term and internal, with the majority of affected individuals returning after the immediate threat passes, though secondary effects like disease outbreaks or economic collapse can prolong mobility.[2][62] In 2023, natural disasters triggered 26.4 million new instances of internal displacement worldwide, representing 56% of the total 46.9 million new displacements recorded that year. Floods accounted for the largest share, displacing over 15 million people, primarily in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, followed by storms with around 7 million displacements concentrated in the Philippines and China. These figures, tracked by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), underscore the dominance of weather-related events in Asia, where exposure to hydrometeorological hazards intersects with high population densities. By contrast, geophysical events like earthquakes caused fewer but more localized displacements, such as the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake that displaced over 3 million internally.[63][64] Climate-related events exacerbate disaster risks by increasing the frequency and intensity of extremes, though direct attribution to anthropogenic climate change remains probabilistic and varies by event. Slow-onset processes, such as prolonged droughts in the Horn of Africa or coastal erosion in Pacific islands, contribute to cumulative displacement by undermining agricultural viability and water security, compelling pastoralists and farmers to relocate. However, these movements often blend with socioeconomic push factors, complicating isolation of climate causality; UNHCR estimates that while 32.6 million disaster displacements occurred in 2023, cross-border climate migration lacks legal refugee protections under the 1951 Convention, as it does not stem from persecution. Empirical trends show rising numbers partly due to improved monitoring and population growth in hazard-prone areas, rather than solely climatic shifts.[65][66]Human-Induced Factors Beyond Conflict
Development-induced displacement arises from large-scale infrastructure and extractive projects, including dams, hydropower plants, roads, reservoirs, and mining operations, which require the involuntary relocation of affected communities to facilitate economic or resource development.[67] These projects often prioritize national or corporate interests over local populations, leading to forced evictions without sufficient consultation, compensation, or resettlement plans, particularly impacting indigenous groups and rural poor.[67] For instance, the Three Gorges Dam in China, completed in 2006, displaced approximately 1.3 million people from the Yangtze River basin to accommodate the world's largest hydroelectric facility.[68] Annually, millions of individuals worldwide experience such displacement, though comprehensive global tracking remains limited due to inconsistent reporting by governments and developers, unlike conflict or disaster data compiled by organizations like the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC).[67] [69] In India, development projects have displaced over 50 million people since independence in 1947, with hydropower and mining contributing significantly; for example, the Narmada Valley projects affected more than 200,000 individuals by the early 2000s.[68] Extractive industries exacerbate this in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where mining expansions have displaced tens of thousands annually, often leading to loss of livelihoods tied to land and water resources.[67] Urban forced evictions represent another human-induced driver, driven by city expansion, slum clearance, and commercial redevelopment, which compel residents—frequently low-income or informal settlers—to relocate amid rising property values and zoning changes.[70] These evictions violate international human rights standards when conducted without due process, disproportionately affecting vulnerable urban poor and intensifying inequality.[71] In cities like Mumbai and Beijing, millions have been evicted since the 1990s for infrastructure such as highways and luxury housing, with inadequate alternatives resulting in homelessness or peripheral relocation.[70] Such practices, while framed as progress, often overlook long-term social costs, including community fragmentation and economic marginalization.[71]Scale, Measurement, and Trends
Global and Regional Statistics
As of the end of 2024, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that 123.2 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations, or events seriously disturbing public order.[1] This figure marked an increase from 117.3 million at the end of 2023, equivalent to 1 in every 67 people globally.[1] The UNHCR's count primarily encompasses refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons (IDPs) from conflict, and other persons of concern, though it relies on estimates from partners like the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) for IDP data, which may introduce methodological variances.[14] IDPs constituted the largest subgroup, with UNHCR estimating 73.5 million at the end of 2024, predominantly driven by conflict and violence rather than disasters.[14] In contrast, the IDMC reported a higher total of 83.4 million IDPs, including 73.5 million from conflict and 9.8 million from disasters, reflecting broader inclusion of short-term disaster evacuations that UNHCR often excludes from "forced displacement" tallies due to their typically transient nature.[72] New displacements in 2024 totaled 65.8 million events affecting individuals, with 20.1 million linked to conflict and violence and 45.8 million to disasters, underscoring the dominance of acute crises in driving annual spikes.[58] Regionally, forced displacement is concentrated in areas of protracted conflict, with sub-Saharan Africa hosting over 40% of the global total.[73] In West and Central Africa, 14.3 million people were displaced by the end of 2024, projected to rise to 15.2 million by year's end 2025 amid ongoing insurgencies in the Sahel and Democratic Republic of Congo.[73] The Middle East and North Africa accounted for significant shares, including 13.7 million from Syria alone (6.8 million refugees and 6.9 million IDPs).[1] Europe saw elevated numbers due to Ukraine, with over 6 million refugees and additional millions of IDPs, while Asia-Pacific regions like Myanmar contributed to new conflict displacements exceeding 3 million IDPs.[3] Sudan emerged as a major driver in 2024, accounting for nearly half of global new conflict IDPs alongside Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo.[3]| Region | Estimated Forcibly Displaced (End-2024, Millions) | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | ~50 (including 14.3 in West/Central) | Conflict in Sudan, DRC, Sahel insurgencies[73][3] |
| Middle East/North Africa | ~30 (e.g., 13.7 from Syria) | Protracted wars in Syria, Yemen[1] |
| Europe | ~10 (largely Ukraine-related) | Russian invasion of Ukraine[1] |
| Asia-Pacific | ~20 (e.g., Myanmar, Afghanistan) | Civil conflicts, political instability[3] |
| Americas | ~7 | Violence in Venezuela, Haiti, gang conflicts[1] |