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Future Movement

The Future Movement (Arabic: تيار المستقبال, Tayyār al-Mustaqbal) is a Lebanese Sunni political party founded by businessman and former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in the mid-1990s to promote economic liberalization, infrastructure development, and reduced Syrian dominance in Lebanese affairs.^[1]^[2] After Rafik Hariri's assassination in a 2005 Beirut bombing widely attributed to Syrian and Hezbollah-linked networks, his son Saad Hariri took over leadership, repositioning the party as the leading Sunni faction within the March 14 Alliance, which mobilized mass protests—the [Cedar Revolution](/page/Cedar_ Revolution)—culminating in Syria's military withdrawal from Lebanon after nearly three decades of occupation.^[3]^[4] Under Saad Hariri's tenure, the Future Movement achieved electoral dominance among Sunni voters, securing key parliamentary seats and enabling Hariri's premierships from 2009 to 2011 and 2016 to 2019, during which efforts focused on fiscal reforms, Gulf-backed investments, and balancing confessional power-sharing amid Hezbollah's growing military and political sway.^[5]^[6] The party advocated neoliberal policies emphasizing private sector growth and international partnerships, particularly with Saudi Arabia, to counter Iranian influence, but faced persistent challenges from sectarian violence, including defeats in 2008 Beirut street clashes against Hezbollah militias that highlighted its reliance on loosely organized loyalist networks rather than a robust institutional base.^[7]^[8] Controversies have centered on allegations of clientelism through Hariri family philanthropy and construction empires, which sustained grassroots support but entrenched patronage over merit-based governance, exacerbating Lebanon's debt crisis and public disillusionment evident in the 2019 protests that forced Hariri's resignation.^[9]^[10] Hariri suspended political activities in 2022 amid electoral setbacks and Hezbollah's parliamentary gains, only to announce the party's revival in February 2025, signaling a potential resurgence in Sunni representation during Lebanon's protracted presidential vacuum and economic collapse.^[11]^[12]

History

Founding and Cedar Revolution

The Future Movement originated as a loose political coalition centered on Rafic Hariri, a prominent Sunni businessman and former Lebanese prime minister who served from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 until his death, advocating for post-civil war economic reconstruction, private sector-led development, and reduced Syrian dominance over Lebanese affairs during the 1990s.^[13] Hariri's network drew primarily from Sunni communities in Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli, emphasizing neoliberal policies and ties to Gulf states and the West to counterbalance Syrian-backed factions like Hezbollah.^[7] This grouping, often referred to as the Hariri Bloc, lacked formal structures but functioned as a patronage-based movement reliant on Hariri's personal wealth and influence from his construction empire, Saudi Oger.^[14] Rafic Hariri's assassination on February 14, 2005, via a massive car bomb in Beirut that killed him and 22 others, marked a pivotal rupture, with immediate suspicions directed at Syrian intelligence and Lebanese allies due to Hariri's vocal opposition to Syria's 29-year military presence and extension of President Émile Lahoud's term.^[15] His son, Saad Hariri, who had been in self-imposed exile in Saudi Arabia, returned to lead the movement's remnants, transforming grief into mass mobilization against foreign interference.^[7] This catalyzed the Cedar Revolution, a series of demonstrations beginning days after the killing, culminating in over 1 million protesters—roughly a quarter of Lebanon's population—gathering in Martyrs' Square on March 14, 2005, waving the Cedar Revolution slogan and demanding Syrian withdrawal, an international investigation into the assassination, and Lebanese sovereignty.^[16] The protests, coordinated by Hariri's supporters alongside Christian and Druze factions like the Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party, formed the nucleus of the March 14 Alliance, named for the demonstration date, which pressured Syria amid international condemnation from the United States, France, and the United Nations.^[9] Facing isolation, Syrian forces—numbering around 14,000 troops—began withdrawing on March 25 and completed exit by April 26, 2005, ending direct occupation but leaving proxy influences intact.^[15] Saad Hariri's Future Movement emerged as the alliance's dominant Sunni component, securing 36 seats in the May 2005 parliamentary elections and positioning itself as a bulwark against pro-Syrian elements, though subsequent investigations like the UN's Special Tribunal for Lebanon revealed complexities in attributing blame beyond initial Syrian involvement.^[17] This period solidified the movement's identity as a reformist, anti-occupation force, though its reliance on charismatic leadership and confessional mobilization foreshadowed vulnerabilities to factional rivalries.^[18]

Expansion Under Saad Hariri

Under Saad Hariri's leadership, which began following his father Rafic Hariri's assassination on February 14, 2005, the Future Movement transitioned from a loose coalition into a more structured political entity, capitalizing on widespread Sunni mobilization during the Cedar Revolution. The movement aligned with the March 14 Alliance, advocating for Syrian troop withdrawal, which occurred on April 26, 2005, after nearly three decades of presence. This period saw initial expansion through grassroots mobilization in Sunni-majority regions such as Beirut's western districts, Tripoli, and Sidon, where the Hariri family's philanthropic networks via the Hariri Foundation provided social services, fostering loyalty amid post-assassination grief and anti-Syrian sentiment.^[13] In the 2005 parliamentary elections, conducted in four rounds from May 29 to June 19, the March 14 Alliance, including Future Movement candidates, secured a majority with 72 of 128 seats, marking the party's emergence as Lebanon's preeminent Sunni political force and enabling it to dominate key ministerial portfolios in the subsequent Fouad Siniora government.^[19] By 2007, Saad Hariri formalized the group's organizational framework, establishing party offices, youth and women's branches, and leveraging the family's media assets like Future Television to amplify neoliberal economic messaging and opposition to Hezbollah's influence. This institutional buildup contributed to heightened visibility and recruitment, particularly among urban youth disillusioned with Syrian-era corruption.^[20] The expansion peaked in the June 7, 2009, parliamentary elections, where the March 14 Alliance retained control with 71 seats, bolstered by Future Movement's strong performance as the coalition's largest Sunni component, reflecting consolidated voter support in proportional representation districts. Saad Hariri's subsequent designation as prime minister on November 9, 2009, and formation of a national unity cabinet positioned the party at the apex of executive power, with allies holding over half the ministries and advancing reforms in banking oversight and infrastructure privatization despite internal coalition frictions. This electoral and governmental foothold underscored the movement's growth from a protest-driven entity to a governing powerhouse, though reliant on Saudi financial backing and vulnerable to sectarian polarization.^[21]^[22]

Challenges Post-2011 and Internal Fractures

Following the collapse of Saad Hariri's unity government on January 12, 2011, triggered by the withdrawal of Hezbollah and its allies—11 ministers in total—over disagreements regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which had implicated Hezbollah members in the 2005 assassination of Rafik Hariri, the Future Movement entered a prolonged period of opposition.^[23] This event marked a significant shift, as Hezbollah's veto power effectively sidelined the party's influence, leading to a political vacuum and heightened sectarian tensions amid the Syrian civil war's spillover effects, including refugee influxes and jihadist threats in Sunni areas like Tripoli.^[7] The Movement struggled to counter Hezbollah's dominance, with critics attributing its diminished leverage to reliance on Saudi backing, which prioritized regional containment of Iran over domestic confrontation.^[24] Hariri's return as prime minister in December 2016, forming a unity cabinet that included Hezbollah ministers, aimed to break the deadlock but provoked accusations of undue compromise, eroding the party's anti-Hezbollah credentials established during the Cedar Revolution.^[3] This move alienated hardline Sunni supporters who viewed it as capitulation, contributing to electoral setbacks; in the May 2018 parliamentary elections, the Future Movement secured only 21 seats, a sharp decline from its pre-2011 dominance, as voters shifted toward independents and rivals amid economic stagnation and perceived weakness against Hezbollah's influence.^[25] The 2019-2020 economic collapse, hyperinflation exceeding 200% annually, and the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion—killing 218 and displacing 300,000—further eroded grassroots support, with protests targeting the Hariri family's historical role in neoliberal policies seen as exacerbating inequality.^[26] Internal fractures intensified around these compromises, most notably with the 2016 rift involving Ashraf Rifi, a former Hariri intelligence chief and justice minister in the new cabinet. Rifi resigned on February 21, 2016, citing Hezbollah's "hegemony" over state decisions, particularly after the release of pro-Syrian figure Michel Samaha despite terrorism charges, and subsequently distanced himself from the Future Movement to form the Independence Movement, challenging Hariri in Tripoli's municipal elections and splitting the Sunni vote.^[27] This defection highlighted broader dissent among security-oriented factions favoring confrontation over dialogue, with Rifi positioning himself as a tougher alternative backed by Gulf states wary of Hariri's pragmatism.^[28] Further strains emerged from family dynamics, as elder brother Bahaa Hariri rejected the party's accommodating stance toward Hezbollah as "political blasphemy," opting instead for independent business-focused initiatives.^[26] By 2021, repeated failed premiership bids—Hariri resigned on July 15 after six months of stalled cabinet formation due to Hezbollah demands for veto-influencing portfolios—culminated in his January 24, 2022, suspension of political activities, prompting the Movement to boycott the May 2022 elections.^[3] This decision deepened divisions, as some Sunni MPs and allies defected or ran independently, accelerating the party's marginalization and the rise of non-sectarian lists, while alienating youth frustrated by unaddressed issues like Hezbollah's arms monopoly and economic despair.^[9] Critics within Sunni circles argued the leadership's repeated concessions, rather than building institutional resilience, fostered dependency on external patrons and failed to mobilize against systemic paralysis.^[24]

Ideology and Principles

Core Political Positions

The Future Movement positions itself as a proponent of Lebanese nationalism and classical liberalism, emphasizing state sovereignty, democratic governance, and economic reforms inspired by the legacy of founder Rafic Hariri.^[29] The party advocates for a strong central state with monopoly over legitimate violence, explicitly opposing the existence of parallel armed entities like Hezbollah, which it has described as exhibiting characteristics of a terrorist organization.^[30] In line with this, leaders such as Saad Hariri have called for national dialogue to integrate or disarm non-state weapons, viewing them as impediments to Lebanon's independence from foreign influences, particularly Iranian proxies.^[30] Economically, the movement supports free-market policies, privatization, and foreign investment to drive reconstruction and job creation, drawing from Rafic Hariri's post-civil war initiatives that rebuilt Beirut's infrastructure through public-private partnerships despite high public debt accumulation.^[31] It prioritizes fiscal reforms, anti-corruption measures, and empowerment of youth and women in economic participation, as articulated in party commitments to inclusive growth amid Lebanon's crises.^[32] On foreign policy, the party favors balanced relations with Arab states like Saudi Arabia while rejecting Syrian dominance and promoting Lebanon's non-alignment in regional conflicts, as evidenced by its role in the 2005 Cedar Revolution against pro-Syria forces.^[33] Domestically, it endorses the Taif Agreement's power-sharing framework but pushes for institutional strengthening to reduce sectarian patronage and enhance accountability, criticizing elite-based clientelism even as its own structure relies on Sunni networks for mobilization.^[8] The movement's platform also includes commitments to truth and reconciliation regarding political assassinations, such as Rafic Hariri's 2005 killing, supporting international tribunals to uphold justice over impunity.^[34] The Future Movement espouses economically liberal policies rooted in the reconstruction model pioneered by founder Rafik Hariri, who, as prime minister from 1992 to 1998 and 2000 to 2004, pursued aggressive fiscal stabilization that reduced inflation from 131% in 1992 to near zero by 1995 through monetary reforms and infrastructure investment under the Horizon 2000 plan. This approach prioritized private-sector-led development, including the creation of Solidere in 1994 to redevelop Beirut's central district via public-private partnerships, aiming to position Lebanon as a regional financial and trade hub.^[35] The party's platform continues to advocate privatization—such as in telecommunications and state-owned enterprises—fiscal discipline to curb public debt (which reached 150% of GDP by the late 2010s), and diversification into high-value sectors like agribusiness, knowledge-based industries, and medical tourism to achieve 5-6% annual GDP growth.^[36] ^[37] During Saad Hariri's premiership (2016-2019), the government's 2018 Economic Vision formalized these priorities, targeting a reduction in debt-to-GDP to 110% by 2025 through revenue enhancement (e.g., improving tax collection efficiency from 42% to global averages), expenditure ceilings, and enabling private investment via streamlined business regulations and capital market development (aiming for 60% of GDP in market capitalization).^[37] Key initiatives included modernizing agriculture for $1.79 billion in exports, establishing industrial parks for 240,000 jobs, and fostering a fintech ecosystem with 50,000 positions in financial services, while addressing infrastructure bottlenecks like power sector losses and port efficiency.^[37] In October 2019, amid protests over economic malaise, Hariri announced immediate reforms such as halving salaries of top officials and providing $100 monthly aid to needy families, alongside a proposed $11 billion social safety net funded by international loans, though implementation stalled due to political deadlock.^[38] On social issues, the Future Movement promotes principles of moderation, sectarian coexistence, and individual freedoms within a framework of national sovereignty, drawing from its 2007 founding manifesto that emphasizes "freedom, moderation, and coexistence" to foster social stability.^[14] Hariri family-linked institutions, such as the Rafik Hariri University Hospital and educational foundations, have historically supported healthcare and schooling in underserved areas, particularly Sunni communities, as part of clientelist outreach rather than comprehensive state welfare programs.^[13] The party has backed limited social protections, including youth employment incentives and vocational training under the 2018 vision (targeting 370,000 jobs overall), but relies more on private philanthropy and diaspora remittances than expansive public spending, a approach critiqued for perpetuating inequality amid Lebanon's post-war poverty rates exceeding 25% by the 2010s.^[37]^[35]

Stance on National Sovereignty and Security

The Future Movement maintains that Lebanon's national sovereignty requires the Lebanese state to exercise exclusive control over security and defense, rejecting parallel armed entities that undermine the central authority. This position stems from the party's foundational opposition to Syrian occupation and subsequent Iranian influence through proxies like Hezbollah, which it regards as a direct threat to independent decision-making in war, peace, and internal affairs. The movement advocates strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces as the sole legitimate defender, emphasizing that non-state actors' possession of advanced weaponry—estimated to exceed the army's arsenal—creates a de facto partition of sovereignty and exposes Lebanon to external agendas.^[34]^[3] A core element of this stance is the call for full implementation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 (2004), which demands the disbanding and disarmament of all militias, and Resolution 1701 (2006), mandating the Lebanese army's deployment south of the Litani River alongside an enhanced UNIFIL presence to prevent non-state armed activities. Party leader Saad Hariri has repeatedly affirmed that "no one should carry arms aside from the army," a principle reiterated in 2011 during a public address commemorating the Cedar Revolution and echoed by movement representatives as recently as September 2025 in diplomatic engagements stressing the state's arms monopoly.^[39]^[34] This framework positions security not as a shared responsibility with militias but as a state prerogative, with Hariri's 2017 resignation announcement explicitly citing Hezbollah's dominance and Iranian interference as existential threats to sovereignty.^[40] In practice, the movement critiques Hezbollah's military integration into national defense narratives, arguing it perpetuates vulnerability rather than resilience, as evidenced by the militia's role in provoking cross-border escalations without state consent. While acknowledging the Lebanese army's limitations—budgeted at around $1.5 billion annually compared to Hezbollah's opaque funding from Iran exceeding $700 million yearly—the Future Movement pushes for international support to equip and expand state forces, viewing this as essential to causal deterrence against aggression and internal destabilization.^[41]^[34] Despite pragmatic coalitions in past governments, the party's rhetoric consistently prioritizes sovereignty restoration through legal disarmament over accommodation, warning that militia autonomy invites foreign vetoes over Lebanese policy.^[42]

Leadership and Internal Structure

Key Figures and Succession

The Future Movement was established by Rafic Hariri, a Saudi-Lebanese businessman who served as Lebanon's Prime Minister from October 1992 to November 1998 and from October 2000 until his assassination by car bomb on February 14, 2005, in Beirut.^[43]^[44] Following Rafic's death, his son Saad Hariri assumed leadership of the party, becoming its dominant figure and representing Sunni interests in opposition to Syrian and Hezbollah influence.^[45] Saad Hariri served as Prime Minister from November 2009 to June 2011 and again from December 2016 to January 2020, during which he navigated coalition governments amid economic crises and political deadlocks.^[6] On January 24, 2022, he announced his retirement from politics, prompting the Future Movement to suspend participation in the May 2022 parliamentary elections due to perceived institutional blockages.^[3] However, on February 14, 2025—marking the 20th anniversary of his father's assassination—Saad Hariri declared the party's return to full political engagement, including preparations for future elections.^[46]^[47] Prominent figures alongside the Hariris include Fouad Siniora, who succeeded Rafic as Prime Minister from July 2005 to June 2008 and continues as head of the Future parliamentary bloc, advocating for reforms and confrontation of Hezbollah's role.^[48] Ahmad Hariri, unrelated by direct lineage but a long-serving party operative since 2009, holds the position of Secretary General, managing internal operations and mobilizing bases during periods of suspension and resurgence.^[34]^[49] Succession within the Future Movement has remained informal and familial, centered on the Hariri dynasty without codified mechanisms or designated heirs beyond Saad's leadership. Rafic's assassination thrust Saad into the role, consolidating power through inherited networks and Saudi backing, though internal fractures—such as Bahaa Hariri's 2011 departure to form the Strong Lebanon bloc—highlighted vulnerabilities.^[30] No explicit succession plan has been announced as of October 2025, with Saad's 2025 return reinforcing his unchallenged primacy amid ongoing Sunni leadership vacuums.^[50]

Organizational Components

The Future Movement operates under a leadership centered on a president, currently Saad Hariri, who holds ultimate decision-making authority as the founder Rafic Hariri's successor and the party's public face.^[29] This top-down structure reflects the movement's origins as a personalist coalition built on elite networks and familial influence rather than formalized bureaucratic layers.^[13] Supporting the president is the Secretary General, a role filled by Ahmad Hariri since at least 2007, responsible for day-to-day coordination, including youth mobilization and internal communications.^[51]^[34] At the executive level, the movement maintains a Political Bureau comprising approximately 32 members, elected during periodic party congresses, such as the 2016 gathering that reaffirmed Saad Hariri's leadership.^[1] This body, intended to include multi-sectarian representation to project a non-confessional image, handles policy formulation and strategic oversight, though its composition often prioritizes loyalists from Sunni business and professional circles.^[13] Membership can fluctuate due to resignations or internal disputes, as seen in the 2024 acceptance of journalist Rashid Fayad's departure from the bureau.^[52] Unlike more institutionalized Lebanese parties, the Future Movement lacks robust grassroots branches or centralized membership rolls, functioning instead as a loose alliance of personal acquaintances, regional notables, and patronage networks concentrated in Sunni-majority areas like Beirut and Tripoli.^[13]^[53] It includes informal components such as a youth sector for mobilizing younger supporters, coordinated historically by figures like Ahmad Hariri, but these remain ad hoc and reliant on charismatic appeals rather than ideological training programs.^[51] This elite-driven model, while enabling rapid mobilization during elections or crises, has been critiqued for contributing to organizational fragility amid leadership transitions and external pressures.^[13]

Political Engagement

Alliances and Coalitions

The Future Movement co-founded the March 14 Alliance on March 14, 2005, in the aftermath of the Cedar Revolution, which mobilized mass protests against Syrian military presence in Lebanon following the assassination of Rafik Hariri. This anti-Syrian coalition encompassed Sunni, Maronite Christian, and Druze factions, positioning the Future Movement as its largest Sunni bloc alongside partners such as the Lebanese Forces, the Phalange Party, and the Progressive Socialist Party under Walid Jumblatt.^[9]^[54] The alliance's formation reflected a strategic unification of domestic opposition to perceived foreign interference, enabling it to secure 72 parliamentary seats in the May 2005 elections and form a government led by Future Movement-affiliated Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.^[55] Opposing the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition, which advocated for Syrian ties and resistance-axis alignment, March 14 governed Lebanon from 2005 to 2011 and intermittently thereafter until 2018, emphasizing state sovereignty, disarmament of non-state actors, and economic liberalization.^[56]^[57] Electoral coalitions within March 14 varied by district, often negotiating seat-sharing to counter Hezbollah's militia-backed mobilization; for instance, in 2009, the alliance retained a slim parliamentary majority under Saad Hariri's premiership, though clashes like the 2008 Beirut street fighting and Doha Agreement exposed tensions, particularly with Jumblatt's periodic shifts toward neutrality.^[58] By 2016, amid political deadlock, Hariri brokered a national unity government incorporating March 8 elements, including Hezbollah and Amal, to secure his return as prime minister—a pragmatic concession that fractured March 14 cohesion, as allies like the Lebanese Forces criticized it for legitimizing Hezbollah's veto power over key decisions.^[58] This arrangement persisted until Hariri's 2020 resignation amid economic collapse and protests, after which the Future Movement's alliances weakened further. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, the party largely abstained from fielding candidates in Sunni strongholds, contributing to opposition gains by independents and rivals, while Hariri's 2021-2024 political suspension limited coalition-building.^[59] As of 2025, Hariri has signaled the Future Movement's re-entry into politics, but without formalized new coalitions amid Sunni fragmentation and Hezbollah's entrenched influence.^[47]

Opposition to Hezbollah and Foreign Influence

The Future Movement has long advocated for Lebanon's sovereignty against Hezbollah's perceived role as a proxy for Iranian and Syrian interests, viewing the group's arsenal and regional interventions as existential threats to the state. Emerging from the 2005 Cedar Revolution, which protested Syrian occupation following Rafic Hariri's assassination on February 14, 2005—later linked by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon to Hezbollah operatives under Syrian influence—the party demanded the full withdrawal of foreign forces and the dismantling of non-state militias.^[7] This stance crystallized the March 14 Alliance, led by the Future Movement, in opposition to the March 8 Alliance dominated by Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies.^[9] Saad Hariri, the party's leader since 2005, has repeatedly criticized Hezbollah's foreign entanglements, arguing they drag Lebanon into conflicts beyond its borders and prioritize external agendas over national interests. In a November 27, 2017, interview, Hariri insisted that Hezbollah must halt its interference in Arab countries' affairs, such as its support for the Assad regime in Syria and involvement in Yemen, to prevent Lebanon from becoming a battleground for regional rivalries.^[60] His abrupt resignation as prime minister on November 4, 2017, from Riyadh explicitly blamed Iran's "hands reaching out for our country" via Hezbollah, which he accused of sowing division and undermining stability—a move seen as a direct challenge to Tehran's influence.^[61] Hariri reiterated this in October 2021, when the Future Movement stated it had "had enough" of Hezbollah's "arbitrary politics," particularly amid disputes over alignments with Saudi Arabia and the Yemen war.^[62] The party's platform emphasizes restoring the state's monopoly on force, calling for Hezbollah to surrender its weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces and integrate under national command to counterbalance Iranian sway.^[63] This position stems from grievances over Hezbollah's impunity in cross-border operations, including its role in the Syrian civil war, which spilled into Lebanon and fueled sectarian tensions, as well as its blocking of UN Resolution 1701 implementation for southern border security.^[64] Despite pragmatic government coalitions, the Future Movement's core rhetoric frames Hezbollah's disarmament and expulsion of foreign influence—chiefly Iranian arms flows and Syrian residual networks—as prerequisites for economic recovery and political independence.^[65]

Electoral History

Early Successes (2005-2009)

The Future Movement emerged as a prominent political force following the assassination of Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005, which triggered the Cedar Revolution—a series of mass protests demanding Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon. Saad Hariri assumed leadership of the Hariri political bloc on April 20, 2005, reorienting it toward opposition against Syrian influence and Hezbollah's role in Lebanese affairs.^[5]^[66] This momentum contributed to Syria's full withdrawal by April 26, 2005, ending nearly three decades of military presence.^[19] In the subsequent parliamentary elections held from May 29 to June 19, 2005—the first without Syrian oversight—the anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance, anchored by the Future Movement's Sunni base, secured 72 of 128 seats, forming a majority government under Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a Hariri ally.^[67]^[19] The Future Movement dominated Sunni-majority districts, winning 18 seats directly in Beirut, Tripoli, and the South, reflecting strong support from urban Sunni communities seeking economic reform and independence from Damascus-backed factions. This victory enabled policies emphasizing reconstruction, international engagement, and confrontation with pro-Syrian elements, despite challenges like the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The party's influence peaked in the June 7, 2009, elections, where the March 14 coalition retained a slim majority with 71 seats against the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance's 57, buoyed by Future Movement gains in key Sunni areas amid voter turnout of approximately 55%.^[68]^[69] Saad Hariri was subsequently elected prime minister on November 9, 2009, heading a national unity cabinet that included opposition figures but prioritized anti-Syrian policies and economic stabilization efforts.^[5]^[70] This tenure marked the Future Movement's consolidation as Lebanon's leading Sunni representative, fostering alliances with Western powers and Gulf states to counter Iranian and Syrian regional sway.^[71]

Declines and 2022 Setbacks

The Future Movement experienced a marked decline in electoral support following the 2018 parliamentary elections, where its influence waned amid gains by Hezbollah and its allies, who capitalized on shifts in voter preferences and alliances.^[72]^[73] This erosion intensified during the 2019 nationwide protests against corruption and economic mismanagement, which targeted Lebanon's traditional political parties, including the Future Movement, as symbols of the status quo.^[74] The subsequent economic collapse, with the Lebanese pound depreciating over 90% against the dollar by 2021 and poverty rates surging, further alienated the party's Sunni base, many of whom sought alternatives amid widespread disillusionment with established factions.^[75] These pressures culminated in leader Saad Hariri's announcement on January 24, 2022, suspending his political activities and declining to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections, effectively sidelining the Future Movement from the May 15, 2022, vote.^[76]^[77]^[6] The party boycotted the elections entirely, resulting in the loss of its parliamentary representation; no candidates ran under its banner, and while some former affiliates secured seats on other lists, the movement itself held zero positions in the new assembly.^[78] This absence marked a severe setback, fracturing Sunni political cohesion and allowing independents and rival groups to capture former strongholds, particularly in Beirut and Tripoli.^[3] The 2022 outcomes reflected deeper structural challenges for the Future Movement, including competition from emerging Sunni figures and Islamist-leaning factions, as well as internal divisions exacerbated by the boycott decision.^[74] Hariri cited an inability to counter Hezbollah's dominance and protect Sunni interests as a rationale for withdrawal, though critics attributed the move to personal and strategic exhaustion amid Lebanon's protracted crisis.^[77]^[3] The party's diminished role contributed to a fragmented parliament, where Hezbollah allies retained influence but lost their outright majority, underscoring the Future Movement's transition from a major bloc to a sidelined entity.^[79]

Post-2022 Strategies and Prospects

Following the Future Movement's effective boycott of the May 2022 parliamentary elections, prompted by Saad Hariri's January 24, 2022, announcement suspending his political activities amid frustrations over Hezbollah's dominance and inability to form a non-sectarian government, the party experienced significant setbacks, including the loss of most of its 21 seats from 2018 and fragmentation of its Sunni voter base.^[80]^[77] This withdrawal left a leadership vacuum in Lebanon's Sunni community, with rival figures and independent lists gaining ground in Tripoli and other strongholds, exacerbating internal divisions and reducing the party's institutional presence.^[81]^[82] In response to regional upheavals—including the December 2024 fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, Hezbollah's military weakening from Israeli operations, and the November 27, 2024, ceasefire in southern Lebanon—Hariri announced on February 14, 2025, the revival of the Future Movement and his re-entry into politics, framing it as an opportunity to restore Sunni representation and counter Iranian influence.^[50]^[83]^[84] The party, which had maintained low-level activities like commemorating Rafik Hariri's legacy despite the suspension, shifted toward electoral re-engagement, with Hariri emphasizing continuity of the movement's neoliberal, pro-sovereignty platform while urging unity against "foreign tutelage."^[30] Post-revival strategies have centered on rebuilding alliances within the Sunni spectrum and broader anti-Hezbollah coalitions, including outreach to reformist groups and potential coordination with Christian and Druze parties for the anticipated 2026 parliamentary elections, as evidenced by reports of exploratory talks amid Lebanon's presidential vacancy.^[85] Hariri has leveraged the movement's historical patronage networks in Beirut and the north to mobilize grassroots support, while publicly celebrating Assad's ouster as validation of the party's long-standing opposition to Syrian interference.^[30] However, these efforts face challenges from competing Sunni leaders like Ashraf Rifi and Fawzi Zein, who capitalized on the 2022 vacuum, necessitating Hariri to navigate accusations of elitism and demonstrate adaptability to post-crisis economic reforms.^[82] Prospects for resurgence appear bolstered by the diminished Hezbollah sway and improved Gulf-Arab engagement with Lebanon, potentially enabling Future Movement gains in Sunni-majority districts if Hariri consolidates the community ahead of elections; analysts note that without a unified Sunni front, however, the party risks further marginalization in a fragmented parliament.^[50]^[84] As of October 2025, simmering Sunni discontent with Hezbollah's role in the economic collapse and border tensions provides an opening, though success hinges on Hariri's ability to distance from past patronage perceptions and align with international recovery initiatives.^[81]^[85]

Controversies and Criticisms

Accusations of Elitism and Sectarianism

The Future Movement has been accused of elitism due to its origins in the Hariri family's business empire and its leadership structure, which critics argue prioritizes affluent networks over grassroots concerns. Analysts describe the party as elite-based, with outreach to lower-income Sunnis hampered by ineffective strategies that failed to bridge the gap between the leadership and its base, exacerbating perceptions of detachment amid Lebanon's economic woes.^[86]^[87] During the 2019 nationwide protests, demonstrators explicitly targeted Saad Hariri and the Future Movement as emblematic of a self-serving political class, chanting against the "zouama" (traditional leaders) for policies that enriched elites while impoverishing the masses, leading to Hariri's resignation on October 29, 2019.^[88]^[89] On sectarianism, opponents, particularly from Hezbollah and allied Shia groups, have charged the movement with exacerbating confessional divides by mobilizing Sunni voters through anti-Shi'i rhetoric that portrayed Hezbollah's influence as a threat to Sunni interests, rather than addressing broader national issues.^[86] This criticism intensified post-2005, when the party's role in the March 14 Alliance framed Syrian and Iranian influence—often coded as Shia proxies—as existential dangers to Lebanon's Sunni community, contributing to polarized street clashes and a reliance on sectarian patronage for support.^[90] Defenders counter that such mobilization was a response to Hezbollah's armed dominance and the confessional nature of Lebanon's political system, but detractors, including secular activists from the 2019 uprising, viewed it as perpetuating the very sectarianism the protests sought to dismantle.^[91] The movement's decline, marked by poor performance in the 2022 elections where it won only 4 seats compared to 36 in 2018, has been partly attributed to this perceived sectarian inflexibility alienating younger, non-confessional Sunnis.^[9]

Corruption Allegations and Patronage Networks

The Future Movement and its leaders, particularly Saad Hariri, have faced persistent allegations of corruption, often tied to the broader systemic graft in Lebanese politics where public office facilitates personal enrichment through state contracts and resource allocation. Critics, including protesters during the 2019 economic uprising, accused the party of contributing to Lebanon's financial collapse via mismanagement and favoritism in public spending, with Hariri's governments implicated in opaque dealings that exacerbated debt and inequality.^[92] ^[93] Specific incidents, such as Saad Hariri's 2019 transfer of approximately $16 million to South African model Candice van der Merwe—framed by Hariri as a charitable gift but decried as extravagant amid Lebanon's crisis—fueled perceptions of wastefulness and elite detachment, drawing scrutiny from both domestic opponents and international observers.^[94] ^[95] Additionally, U.S. Treasury sanctions in October 2021 targeted Randa Youssef Berri and Zouheir El-Halabi, described as allies of Hariri, for allegedly securing corrupt state contracts in telecommunications and waste management, highlighting patterns of cronyism linked to Future Movement networks.^[96] Patronage networks form a core mechanism of the Future Movement's influence, particularly among Sunni communities, where the party leverages welfare distribution, job placements, and infrastructure projects to secure loyalty in a clientelist political economy. Founded on Rafik Hariri's business empire and Saudi-backed philanthropy, the movement operates through entities like the Hariri Foundation, providing targeted aid such as housing repairs, medical assistance, and employment referrals, often prioritizing party supporters in Beirut's suburbs and Tripoli.^[97] ^[98] This "bricks and mortar clientelism"—encompassing construction contracts and urban development favors—mirrors practices across Lebanon's sects but has been critiqued for reinforcing sectarian divides and elite control, with the Future Movement's Sunni focus enabling electoral mobilization while sidelining broader reforms.^[8] ^[99] During municipal elections, such as those in 2016, these networks manifested in vote-buying adaptations, including cash handouts and service promises, sustaining the party's base despite economic downturns but contributing to governance paralysis.^[100] While proponents argue this patronage fills state voids in service delivery, detractors view it as perpetuating dependency and corruption, as evidenced by post-2019 protest demands to dismantle such systems.^[13]^[3]

Splits and Rivalries Within Sunni Politics

Ashraf Rifi, a prominent figure in the Future Movement and former Justice Minister under Saad Hariri, resigned from his post on February 21, 2016, citing Hezbollah's undue influence over Lebanese governance as detrimental to national interests.^[101] Rifi formally severed ties with Hariri on September 13, 2016, declaring their relationship "totally severed" and positioning himself as a harder-line alternative within Sunni politics, later founding movements like the Sanad Movement to challenge Future Movement dominance in areas such as Tripoli.^[102] This split highlighted tensions over accommodation with Hezbollah, with Rifi accusing Hariri of insufficient opposition to the group's hegemony, contributing to a erosion of unified Sunni leadership.^[28]^[103] Intra-family rivalries further fragmented the Hariri legacy, as Bahaa Hariri, Rafik Hariri's eldest son, reentered Lebanese politics in June 2020 amid widespread protests, explicitly challenging Saad's control over Sunni constituencies like Sidon.^[104] Bahaa positioned himself as a reformist alternative, allying with civil society figures and criticizing entrenched political practices, which analysts interpreted as a bid for primacy in the Hariri succession.^[105] Following Saad's withdrawal announcement on January 24, 2022, Bahaa declared his intent to "continue his father's journey," intensifying competition for Sunni loyalty and exposing dynastic vulnerabilities within the movement.^[106]^[3] Saad Hariri's decision to suspend political activities and boycott the May 2022 parliamentary elections deepened divisions, creating a vacuum that splintered the Sunni vote across independents, local figures, and rival factions, with turnout in Sunni areas dropping significantly—evidenced by fragmented representation where Future Movement allies secured only a fraction of prior seats.^[26]^[107] This fragmentation empowered emerging Sunni leaders, such as those in Tripoli backed by Gulf states or aligned with Islamist groups, while reducing the movement's hegemonic control and fostering rivalries with entities like al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya over ideological and territorial influence.^[90]^[108] By September 2025, despite Hariri's February 2025 announcement of a political return, persistent splits left Sunni politics characterized by competing power centers rather than cohesion.^[10]^[46]

Impact and Legacy

Contributions to Lebanese Politics

The Future Movement, founded by Rafic Hariri in 1992, played a pivotal role in Lebanon's post-civil war economic reconstruction by implementing neoliberal policies that prioritized private sector-driven development and infrastructure rebuilding. Hariri's Horizon 2000 plan sought to position Beirut as a regional financial center, with initiatives like the Solidere company overseeing downtown Beirut's redevelopment, which helped restore urban infrastructure devastated by 15 years of conflict.^[36]^[35] These measures contributed to stabilizing the economy, reducing annual inflation from 131% in 1992 to manageable levels by fostering investor confidence and liberalizing key sectors.^[109] Following Rafic Hariri's assassination on February 14, 2005, the party under Saad Hariri's leadership mobilized the Cedar Revolution, a series of massive non-violent protests that drew over a million participants and compelled Syria to withdraw its military presence from Lebanon after nearly three decades of occupation.^[9]^[15] This movement, aligned with the March 14 coalition, advanced Lebanon's sovereignty by challenging foreign domination and fostering cross-sectarian unity against external interference.^[57] The Future Movement's involvement strengthened moderate Sunni representation in parliament, where it secured significant seats in 2005 and 2009 elections, enabling governance periods focused on pro-Western orientation and opposition to Hezbollah's armed influence.^[7] Throughout its tenure in power, including Saad Hariri's premiership from 2009 to 2011 and 2016 to 2020, the party advocated for state monopoly on arms and reduced reliance on militias, contributing to national dialogues aimed at reinforcing central authority amid Hezbollah's dominance.^[110] It promoted economic liberalization policies to counter patronage networks, though implementation faced resistance from entrenched interests.^[57] In 2025, Saad Hariri's announcement of the party's political return emphasized restoring balance post-Syrian regime shifts and supporting state institutions against non-state actors, underscoring its ongoing commitment to sovereignty and reform.^[47]

Role in Post-2024 Regional Shifts

Following the November 27, 2024, ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which diminished the militia's military arsenal and operational capacity in southern Lebanon, the Future Movement reemerged as a counterweight to Iranian-aligned forces.^[63] On February 15, 2025, leader Saad Hariri reversed his 2022 political suspension, declaring the party's revival and commitment to national activities, including parliamentary elections, to restore Sunni representation amid Hezbollah's post-war vulnerabilities.^[46] This repositioning aligned with broader regional realignments, including the December 8, 2024, collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, which severed a key axis of Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah coordination.^[84] The Future Movement publicly hailed Assad's ouster as a strategic victory against authoritarianism and sectarian interference, with Secretary-General Ahmed Hariri emphasizing its role in dismantling Iran's regional proxy network during commemorations of Rafik Hariri's legacy.^[30] Historically opposed to Assad's Alawite-dominated rule for its support of Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanon, the party framed the Syrian transition—led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham—as an opportunity to bolster moderate Sunni voices across the Levant, potentially easing cross-border tensions and refugee pressures on Beirut.^[34] This stance reflected optimism about Saudi Arabia's renewed diplomatic push in Lebanon, including aid pledges and pressure for Hezbollah disarmament, positioning the Future Movement to mediate between Gulf states and local factions for state sovereignty.^[34] In Lebanon's simmering Sunni political landscape, the party's return addressed leadership vacuums exacerbated by Hezbollah's 2024 setbacks, aiming to consolidate anti-militia alliances ahead of anticipated 2026 elections.^[81] By advocating economic reforms tied to security stabilization and reduced external influence, it sought to capitalize on Iran's diminished projection—evident in Syria's HTS-led interim government and Hezbollah's internal recalibrations—fostering a pro-Western, Arab-integrated Lebanon less prone to proxy conflicts.^[111] Critics within rival Sunni factions, however, questioned the Hariri lineage's ability to transcend patronage networks amid persistent economic collapse, though empirical gains in municipal polls signaled grassroots Sunni mobilization.^[112]

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Jun 12, 2020 · Sidelined and relatively silent for 15 years, Bahaa Hariri is using Lebanon's protest movement to make political inroads and is allying with his brother's ...
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The Hariri Brothers & the Future of Lebanese Politics
Nov 11, 2020 · Having agreed to grant the Finance Ministry to the Amal Movement, Saad will find himself obliged to make additional concessions. As a result ...
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Bahaa al-Hariri enters Lebanese politics after brother bows out
Jan 28, 2022 · Lebanon's Bahaa al-Hariri declared on Friday he was entering Lebanese politics, saying he would join a battle to take back the country.
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Hariri's boycott of election offers Hezbollah a void to fill | | AW
Sep 5, 2022 · High abstentions among Sunnis, as well as a fragmentation of the Sunni vote as a result of Hariri turning his back on politics, ...
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The Islamic Group and Lebanon's Popular Uprising
Jul 20, 2020 · The Islamic Group comes second to Saad Hariri's Future Movement, which calls on the IG's support of 'Political Sunnism' merely when politics and ...
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Two Faces of Janus - MERIP
the rebuilding of infrastructure — and then to lure in private-sector investment. The ...Missing: Rafik | Show results with:Rafik
[111]
[PDF] Lebanon Reborn? How Saudi Reengagement Can Restore ...
which has traditionally comprised the Future Movement, Lebanon's dominant Sunni political party at the time, alongside the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, both ...
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https://nepf.org.au/index.php/shifting-political-dynamics-in-lebanon/
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Shifting Political Dynamics in Lebanon - Near East Policy Forum
Jun 20, 2025 · The municipal elections of May 2025 served as a political barometer, revealing shifts within Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system; shifts ...