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Cyclone Amphan

Super Cyclonic Storm Amphan (pronounced Um-pun) was a rare and intense that formed from a over the southeast on 13 May 2020, intensifying into a by 16 May and rapidly escalating to super cyclonic storm status by 18 May, marking the first such event in the basin since 1999. It achieved peak 3-minute sustained winds of 240–250 km/h (130–135 knots) and a minimum central pressure of 920 hPa during 18–19 May, equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale per assessments of 145-knot 1-minute winds. After weakening to a very severe cyclonic storm with 155–165 km/h winds, it made landfall over the mangrove forests near 21.65°N, 88.3°E, straddling the – coast between 1000–1200 UTC on 20 May, generating a up to 5 meters in low-lying areas. Amphan's was driven by high and low in the , enabling it to form a well-defined eye and curved rainbands visible in , though pre-existing marine heatwaves contributed to subsequent sea surface cooling upon approach. The storm's curved north-northeastward, influenced by a mid-level trough, prompting accurate forecasts from the that facilitated the evacuation of over 2 million people in and amid concurrent restrictions. Despite its ferocity, fatalities remained limited to around 88–98 confirmed deaths, primarily from wind-felled trees and electrocution in , underscoring the efficacy of early warnings and sheltering compared to historical cyclones like 1999's Odisha super . The cyclone inflicted widespread devastation, including the uprooting of millions of trees, destruction of over 100,000 homes, and salinization of agricultural lands, with economic losses exceeding $13 billion in alone from infrastructure damage, power outages affecting millions, and impacts on orchards and fisheries in both affected countries. Total regional damages approached $15 billion, predominantly uninsured and concentrated in densely populated deltas vulnerable to surge flooding, highlighting Amphan's role as the costliest North cyclone on record at the time. Its occurrence during the early season amplified recovery challenges, yet demonstrated improved resilience through coordinated government responses, including aerial surveys and aid distribution.

Meteorological history

Formation and initial development

A low-pressure area, remnant of an equatorial easterly wave, formed over the south and adjoining southeast on May 13, 2020. This system gradually organized and concentrated into a , which the (IMD) designated at 0000 UTC on May 16 over the southeast . By 0900 UTC on May 16, the depression intensified into a deep depression with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots (55 km/h, 30 m/s). At 1200 UTC the same day, it further strengthened into a cyclonic storm, earning the name Amphan from the IMD's panel, with winds increasing to 35 knots (65 km/h, 35 m/s). The (JTWC) initiated tracking as 01B around 1500 UTC on May 16. During its formative phase through 1200 UTC on May 18, Amphan exhibited slower-than-average movement, initially drifting north-northwestward at reduced speeds influenced by weak steering currents in the region. By 0300 UTC on May 17, it escalated to a severe cyclonic storm with winds of 50 knots (93 km/h, 51 m/s), marking the onset of further organization amid favorable warm sea surface temperatures exceeding 30°C in the southeast . at this stage revealed improving convective structure, though initial development remained gradual prior to subsequent .

Rapid intensification phase

Cyclone Amphan experienced primarily between 00:00 UTC on 17 May 2020 and 00:00 UTC on 18 May 2020, during which its maximum sustained winds increased from 45 knots to 120 knots over 24 hours, marking a pressure fall of nearly 50 hPa according to post-event analysis. This acceleration elevated the system from severe cyclonic storm to super cyclonic storm intensity, with the estimating equivalent Category 5 strength by early 18 May based on 1-minute sustained winds. Key environmental factors included surpassing 100 kJ/cm² ahead of 17 May, coupled with sea surface temperatures near 31°C across the northern , supplying substantial to fuel and eyewall development. Low vertical and a mid-level minimized disruption to the vortex, enabling organized deep and the formation of a distinct eye observable in by late 17 May. Satellite-based observations confirmed the structural evolution, with rapid eyewall contraction and increased outflow contributing to the and gains. By 18 May, the cyclone's central pressure reached an estimated 920 , supporting sustained winds of up to 130 knots as per probabilistic forecasts aligned with observed data. This intensification occurred over warm, stratified waters influenced by prior freshwater influx, which sustained barrier layer effects and inhibited mixing to cooler subsurface layers.

Peak intensity and landfall

Cyclone Amphan achieved its peak intensity in the early afternoon of 18 May 2020 over the east-central , when the (IMD) upgraded it to a super cyclonic storm, the highest category on their scale corresponding to 3-minute sustained winds exceeding 221 km/h (137 mph). This classification reflected from an extremely severe cyclonic storm earlier that day, fueled by sea surface temperatures above 30°C (86°F) and minimal vertical , enabling the formation of a distinct eye visible in . The (JTWC) concurrently estimated peak 1-minute sustained winds at approximately 140 knots (259 km/h or 161 mph), though IMD's regional assessments prioritized 3-minute averages for operational warnings. Over the following day, Amphan tracked northwestward while gradually weakening due to increasing and reduced oceanic heat content, yet it retained super cyclonic storm status until early 20 May. By the time it neared the coast, satellite-derived estimates indicated a central around 925–950 at peak, dropping slightly at to near 960 amid some structural asymmetry. Amphan made landfall straddling the India-Bangladesh border during the afternoon of 20 May 2020 (approximately 0900–1200 UTC), crossing near Digha in West Bengal, India (around 21.7°N, 88.0°E), and the Hatia Islands in Bangladesh. At this stage, IMD reported maximum sustained 3-minute winds of 155–165 km/h (96–103 mph) gusting to 185 km/h (115 mph), classifying it as a very severe cyclonic storm upon crossing, though residual super-cyclone features contributed to widespread devastation from wind and surge. The landfall location in the densely mangroved Sundarbans delta mitigated some inland penetration compared to open coastal strikes, but exposed low-lying areas to peak storm surges exceeding 4 meters (13 ft).

Dissipation and post-landfall weakening

Following near in , , at approximately 12:00 UTC on 20 May 2020, Cyclone Amphan experienced rapid weakening due to increased surface friction over land and disruption of its moisture supply, transitioning from super cyclonic storm intensity with maximum sustained winds exceeding 220 km/h to an extremely severe cyclonic storm within hours. The (JTWC) reported the system's 1-minute sustained winds dropping from 175 km/h at to tropical storm strength (below 119 km/h) by 18:00 UTC the same day, reflecting the cyclone's loss of organized and central circulation integrity. As Amphan tracked north-northeastward inland across and into neighboring and , its structure further degraded, with the (IMD) downgrading it stepwise: to a very severe cyclonic storm by late afternoon local time on 20 May, then to a severe cyclonic storm overnight, and finally to a well-marked by 21 May. This post-landfall decay, which took approximately 24 hours to reduce winds to depression levels (around 56 km/h or 30 knots), was slower than some comparable systems like but still marked by swift dissipation compared to the cyclone's pre-landfall intensification. The remnants of Amphan fully dissipated over eastern by midday on 21 May 2020, leaving behind scattered heavy rainfall but no regenerated tropical activity, as confirmed by observations showing the complete erosion of the low-level circulation center. This rapid inland weakening minimized prolonged impacts beyond the immediate coastal zones, though residual moisture contributed to flooding in upstream regions.

Preparations and immediate response

Evacuation efforts in India

In response to forecasts from the indicating the approach of Super Cyclone Amphan, the initiated large-scale evacuations from vulnerable coastal districts including , North 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, and Paschim Medinipur starting on May 18, 2020. Authorities directed residents in low-lying areas and near the mangrove forests to move to designated cyclone shelters, with over 200,000 people evacuated from coastal villages alone in . The (NDRF) deployed 16 teams across the state to assist in these operations, focusing on door-to-door warnings and transportation to safety. Overall, approximately one million people were evacuated in , predominantly from , which bore the brunt of the anticipated landfall near the Indo-Bangladesh border on May 20, 2020. In , where the cyclone's outer bands posed risks, state officials evacuated around 200,000 individuals from coastal regions to shelters and relief camps. High-level coordination included a review meeting chaired by on May 18 in , emphasizing rapid deployment of resources for evacuation and relief. These efforts leveraged existing cyclone preparedness infrastructure, such as multi-purpose shelters built under national disaster management programs, to house evacuees efficiently. NDRF units conducted preemptive rescues and evacuations, including relocation, while local administration used loudspeakers, mobile alerts, and community volunteers to ensure compliance despite logistical challenges. The scale of operations reflected lessons from prior cyclones like Fani in 2019, enabling a structured response that minimized immediate exposure to the storm's peak winds exceeding 185 km/h at .

Evacuation efforts in Bangladesh

The issued evacuation orders following the issuance of the highest danger signal by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department as Amphan intensified toward the coast on May 19-20, 2020. Approximately 2.4 million people from coastal districts were relocated to cyclone shelters in a coordinated effort involving local authorities, the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), and volunteers. This included the evacuation of around 500,000 to protect agricultural assets. To accommodate evacuees amid the concurrent , authorities activated over 12,000 cyclone shelters—nearly three times the number used in prior events—equipping them with masks, hand sanitizers, soap, and handwashing stations to mitigate infection risks. The supported these operations by assisting in the movement of vulnerable populations and assets to shelters. In specific districts like Barguna, Bhola, and , over 998,000 individuals were sheltered, with 469 medical teams and 23,180 volunteers deployed for health monitoring and support. Challenges arose from public fears of transmission in crowded shelters, compounded by restrictions that initially hampered mobility, yet compliance remained high due to effective early warnings and community networks. These efforts contributed to a relatively low death toll of 26 people in , demonstrating the efficacy of the nation's multi-decade investments in disaster preparedness infrastructure.

Forecasting accuracy and warnings

The (IMD), through its (RSMC)-New Delhi, issued an extended-range outlook on 7 May 2020 anticipating low-probability in the between 8 and 14 May, though the depression actually formed on 16 May. From 16 May onward, IMD bulletins consistently forecasted the system's northward track toward the West Bengal-Odisha coasts, predicting intensification into a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 155-165 km/h gusting to 185 km/h at . An operational cyclone warning (orange message) for and northern coasts was issued at 0845 IST on 18 May, approximately 56 hours before . IMD's track forecasts demonstrated high accuracy, correctly identifying the landfall point near Sagar Islands in around midday on 20 May, with minimal deviation from the observed path. Intensity predictions at landfall aligned closely with observations, estimating 155-165 km/h sustained winds, which matched the storm's weakening to very severe cyclonic storm status upon crossing the coast. The (JTWC), using one-minute sustained winds, forecasted a Category 2 equivalent (around 155 km/h) at landfall, underestimating the brief super cyclonic storm phase (reaching 185 km/h three-minute winds per IMD) during on 18-19 May, though its guidance also supported the observed . In Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) issued escalating cyclone danger signals, culminating in the highest level (#10) for ports at Mongla and Payra on 20 May, building on earlier alerts disseminated since the system's formation on 16 May to facilitate evacuations. These warnings, informed by IMD and international models, enabled preemptive measures despite the storm's primary landfall in , with BMD forecasts aligning on the north-northeastward path and associated risks like up to 5 meters in coastal areas. Overall, the multi-agency , emphasizing track precision and multi-hazard elements (winds, rain, surge), contributed to the successful evacuation of over 2 million people across both nations, underscoring effective despite challenges in pinpointing peak intensity during rapid deepening.

Complications from concurrent COVID-19 pandemic

The concurrent , which had prompted nationwide lockdowns in and since March 2020, created significant challenges for cyclone preparations by restricting movement and straining resources already allocated to pandemic containment. In , , many cyclone shelters had been repurposed as centers for returning migrant workers, reducing available capacity and complicating logistics for Amphan evacuations on May 20, 2020. Authorities faced the dilemma of enforcing to curb viral transmission while urging mass evacuations, with shelter capacities effectively limited to 40% under distancing protocols. Evacuation efforts were hindered by public fears of exposure in communal shelters, leading a majority of coastal households in southwestern to opt for staying home despite cyclone warnings. Studies of affected communities indicated that heightened risk perceptions of the outweighed cyclone threats for many, resulting in lower-than-expected evacuation rates and increased vulnerability to storm surges and winds. In , over 12,000 shelters were stocked with masks and sanitizers to mitigate infection risks, yet overcrowding remained a concern for the approximately 2.2 million people under threat in coastal areas. Post-landfall response was further complicated by the of over 100,000 in , many of whom sheltered in open embankments or with relatives, bypassing formal facilities and potentially accelerating local COVID-19 transmission. In , , confirmed cases surged rapidly after Amphan's landfall but later stabilized, suggesting mixed impacts from disrupted isolation measures amid the cyclone's destruction. Healthcare systems, already overwhelmed by pandemic caseloads, struggled to address injuries and diseases without adequate , underscoring the compounded strain on dual-disaster management.

Impacts

Human casualties and injuries

Cyclone Amphan caused at least 128 fatalities, with the majority occurring in and . In , 98 deaths were reported, predominantly in state, where from downed power lines and the collapse of poorly constructed homes accounted for most casualties. In , 26 people died, including incidents involving falling trees and drowning during the storm's landfall on May 20, 2020. Four additional deaths occurred in from peripheral effects. Injuries numbered in the thousands across affected regions, though precise tallies were not systematically compiled in official assessments; many resulted from flying debris, structural failures, and post-storm hazards like exposed wiring. In West Bengal, initial reports highlighted hundreds requiring medical attention for trauma and electrocution-related burns, exacerbated by the cyclone's coincidence with COVID-19 restrictions that strained healthcare resources. Bangladesh assessments noted injuries among the 2.6 million affected, but focused more on displacement than detailed injury counts. The relatively low death toll compared to historical cyclones in the —such as in 2007, which killed over 3,000—was attributed to large-scale evacuations, with over 1 million people moved to shelters in and despite pandemic challenges. However, vulnerabilities persisted in densely populated delta regions, where amplified risks from wind gusts exceeding 200 km/h and storm surges up to 5 meters.

Economic and infrastructural damage in India

Cyclone Amphan inflicted approximately 1 trillion rupees ($13 billion) in damages to infrastructure and crops in , as estimated by state officials shortly after landfall on May 20, 2020. A subsequent report assessed total economic losses across at $14 billion, marking Amphan as the costliest recorded in the North basin. These figures encompassed widespread destruction to , transportation networks, electrical systems, and agricultural assets, exacerbating vulnerabilities in coastal districts. Over 1.5 million houses in sustained damage or were destroyed, displacing more than 13 million residents and necessitating extensive rebuilding efforts. In urban areas like , gusts exceeding 133 km/h uprooted thousands of trees, which felled power lines and blocked roads, leaving millions without for days. Infrastructure in faced severe flooding across 700 villages, rendering 80,000 people homeless and compromising road and embankment integrity. Agricultural infrastructure suffered significantly, with nearly 3 million homes linked to rural economies affected alongside to 4.2 million acres of crops and 0.2 million hectares of farmland and fish farms. facilities, including 563 primary health centers and over 5,000 sub-centers, incurred , compounding disruptions to . networks spanning at least 1,100 kilometers required repairs due to flooding and debris, while embankments and farms faced breaches from surges. These impacts highlighted the cyclone's role in straining India's eastern coastal , with low penetration amplifying uninsured losses estimated at over 99% of the total.

Economic and infrastructural damage in Bangladesh

Cyclone Amphan inflicted substantial infrastructural and economic damage across coastal , particularly in districts such as , , and Bagerhat, affecting over 2.6 million people and rendering approximately 250,000 homeless through the destruction or severe compromise of housing structures. A joint needs assessment documented 205,368 houses as partially or fully damaged, with 55,767 completely destroyed, exacerbating vulnerabilities in low-lying areas prone to storm surges. estimates placed the total economic losses at around $130 million, encompassing direct damages to , , and livelihoods, though preliminary figures from relief agencies suggested potential undercounting due to ongoing assessments amid the concurrent crisis. Infrastructural impacts were widespread, with 76 kilometers of coastal embankments damaged or breached, allowing intrusion that further eroded protective barriers and agricultural viability. networks suffered extensively, with 440 kilometers impaired, hindering immediate distribution and access to affected . and systems faced severe disruptions, including the destruction or damage of 18,235 tube wells and 40,894 latrines (14,820 fully destroyed), leading to heightened risks of in inundated areas. and community facilities also reported partial collapses, though comprehensive tallies were complicated by flooding and . Economic repercussions extended to agriculture and fisheries, key sectors for coastal livelihoods, where over 176,000 hectares of productive land—including , vegetables, prawn, and farms—were inundated or washed away, with specific losses totaling 32,037 hectares of areas and 18,707 hectares of ponds. losses exceeded 14,000 animals, and approximately 68% of surveyed households reported disruptions, primarily from field inundation and equipment destruction, contributing to food insecurity and income deficits projected to persist for months. These damages underscored the cyclone's role in amplifying pre-existing fragilities in embankment-dependent polders, where breaches facilitated prolonged salinization of soils.

Environmental and ecological consequences

Cyclone Amphan inflicted substantial damage on the , spanning the India-Bangladesh border, through high winds exceeding 260 km/h and a up to 5 meters, leading to widespread uprooting of trees and habitat disruption. In the Indian Biosphere Reserve, the cyclone affected approximately 1,200 square kilometers of reserve forest, including about 28% of the cover, with shoreline areas experiencing up to 18.8% loss—the highest among recent cyclones like and Fani. The storm's impacts extended to floral diversity, with increased from surge inundation promoting dieback in salt-sensitive such as Heritiera fomes (Sundari), a dominant canopy , while exacerbating along coastal fringes and reducing natural regeneration capacity. Mangroves, which typically act as a against surges by dissipating wave energy, suffered structural damage including snapped trunks and defoliation, compounding prior losses from earlier cyclones and contributing to net reduction in vulnerable zones. Ecologically, the event accelerated decline in the region, home to like the and estuarine crocodiles, by fragmenting habitats and altering freshwater inflows, though direct wildlife mortality data remains limited; indirect effects included heightened vulnerability to subsequent stressors like sea-level rise. breaches from the surge flooded agricultural fringes, salinizing soils and indirectly pressuring mangrove-adjacent ecosystems through altered and potential pollutant influx from debris.

Effects in peripheral regions

In , Cyclone Amphan brought gusty winds of 100-110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph along the northern coast, accompanied by heavy rainfall that disrupted services and caused infrastructural strain, though damages were less severe than in . The storm led to the evacuation of over 110,000 people in coastal districts and resulted in the uprooting of trees, damage to power lines, and minor flooding in low-lying areas, with the reporting disruptions to on May 20, 2020. Further inland and in northeastern India, including , , and , the cyclone's outer bands produced strong surface winds of 30-40 kmph and heavy rainfall exceeding 100 mm in isolated pockets from May 20-21, 2020, prompting high alerts but causing limited structural damage primarily through localized flooding and fallen branches. No significant casualties were reported in these regions, where impacts were confined to agricultural fields and temporary power outages rather than widespread devastation. In northern Bangladesh, particularly the divisions of Rangpur and , Amphan generated strong winds that extended unusually far inland, damaging mango orchards and other crops across approximately 36 hectares affecting 345 farmers in alone, with estimated losses of Tk 9.72 by June 2020. Power outages affected most districts in these areas starting late on May 20, 2020, alongside uprooted trees and minor structural impacts, marking a rare instance of a cyclone influencing non-coastal northern zones. Minimal effects were noted in farther peripheral areas like southern and northern , limited to light to moderate rainfall without notable damage.

Aftermath and recovery

Short-term relief and humanitarian aid

Immediately following Cyclone Amphan's landfall on May 20, 2020, governments in and , alongside humanitarian organizations, launched urgent relief operations to address , food, water, and medical needs amid ongoing restrictions. In , over 2.4 million people had been evacuated to approximately 12,000 shelters prior to impact, with post-storm efforts focusing on sustaining these evacuees and aiding those whose homes were damaged or destroyed. The deployed more than 70,000 volunteers, including 55,000 from the Cyclone Preparedness Programme, to distribute emergency supplies such as dry food packages, units, and multipurpose cash grants to vulnerable households, reaching 36,365 individuals across 192 shelters in ten districts by late May. The Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT) coordinated a response plan targeting 250,000 people in immediate need, including those in emergency shelters, with sectors encompassing , , and support for nearly 160,000 individuals. In India, the (NDRF) mobilized 25 teams for rescue and relief in and , with additional units rushed to accelerate restoration of basic services like power and water in hardest-hit areas. On May 22, Prime Minister conducted an aerial survey of damaged regions in and announced an initial central aid package of 10 billion rupees (approximately $132 million) to support affected communities. By May 25, the central government disbursed ₹1,000 from the National Disaster Response Fund to and ₹500 to for immediate relief, including provisions for temporary shelter and essential supplies. assets, including diving teams in and ships on standby, supplemented ground efforts to clear debris and deliver aid. International organizations complemented national responses, with UN agencies providing logistical support and commending both countries' evacuations for minimizing casualties despite the dual crises. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) facilitated cash assistance and hygiene kits in , while groups like distributed safe drinking water to coastal populations in both nations during the initial phase. These efforts prioritized vulnerable groups, including people with disabilities, though challenges like shelter overcrowding and aid access persisted due to pandemic protocols.

Reconstruction and long-term recovery challenges

Reconstruction following Cyclone Amphan faced significant hurdles due to the cyclone's overlap with the and subsequent monsoon flooding, which strained resources and delayed efforts in both and . In , the Humanitarian Coordination Task Team's $25 million appeal to support 700,000 people across seven districts was only 26% funded by late June 2020, limiting shelter repairs and infrastructure rebuilding. Persistent displacement affected over 100,000 people immediately after the storm, with around 500,000 still homeless or in temporary shacks in districts like , , and Bagerhat a year later, as many homes remained ruined and embankments inadequately repaired. In , , the cyclone inflicted $13.2 billion in damages, the costliest in history, yet recovery relied heavily on domestic funding like a $132 million central relief package, with international aid minimal and complicated by pandemic restrictions on labor mobility. Long-term recovery was undermined by salinity intrusion from storm surges, which contaminated 1.7 million hectares of cropland in and vast farmlands in , rendering agricultural and unproductive for years and exacerbating food insecurity. In southwest villages, the "double strike" of and Amphan led to a 58% average income drop and 77% loss of occupations, with low livelihood diversification hindering and forcing reliance on debt and asset sales as coping mechanisms. Fisheries-dependent communities faced empty ponds and rotting stocks, while returned migrant workers—over 1 million to alone—struggled with unemployment amid economic contraction projected at 5% for . Governance and implementation gaps further prolonged challenges, including poor coordination for resilient and inadequate emphasis on transformative rebuilding over mere . In , limited disaster relief funding and governance issues perpetuated vulnerability, particularly for women and the elderly, while informal community networks filled voids left by underfunded appeals like the International Federation of Red Cross's, which met only 29.3% of needs. India's local governments handled rehabilitation but encountered delays in housing and well repairs in the , compounded by the return of 127,000 overseas migrants to facing similar barriers. Overall, these factors underscored the need for diversified livelihoods and strengthened local networks to mitigate future "double strike" risks.

Government and international assistance

The , under Prime Minister , initiated preparedness measures prior to landfall, with Modi chairing a high-level review meeting on May 18, 2020, to assess evacuation and relief strategies for and . Following the cyclone's impact on May 20, 2020, the central government announced a relief package of 10 billion rupees (approximately $132 million) specifically for to support restoration efforts. On May 22, 2020, Modi conducted an aerial survey of damaged areas in and held a review meeting with state officials in to evaluate ground conditions and coordinate aid distribution. The National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) later approved 2,707.77 rupees for 's reconstruction, focusing on infrastructure repair and immediate relief. In , the government prioritized evacuations, successfully relocating over 2.4 million people to more than 12,000 shelters—triple the number used in prior cyclones—coordinating with the (BDRCS), Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), and Fire Service and Civil Defence. This preemptive action, triggered by early warnings, minimized casualties despite the storm's severity, with BDRCS activating its Early Action Protocol on May 18, 2020, to facilitate evacuations of people, livestock, and assets. International assistance complemented national efforts, with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) mobilizing thousands of volunteers across affected countries to deliver , safe , , hygiene kits, and cash grants to thousands in . The UN's Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) provided rapid funding for , , and health interventions in , supporting vulnerable populations including female-headed households. Organizations like and extended aid encompassing reproductive health, livelihoods support, clean , , and to over 12,000 people in Bangladesh's hardest-hit districts. The Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT) response plan sought $25 million to assist 700,000 individuals across seven districts, though funding reached only 26% of requirements, highlighting gaps in global disaster relief allocation.

Scientific analysis and broader implications

Factors contributing to rapid intensification

Cyclone Amphan underwent rapid intensification between May 17 and 18, 2020, escalating from a deep depression to a super cyclonic storm with sustained winds exceeding 215 km/h. This process was primarily driven by exceptionally high ocean heat content (OHC) in the Bay of Bengal, surpassing 100 kJ cm⁻² prior to May 17, which provided the necessary thermal energy for sustained convective activity and storm development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exceeding 29°C across a broad expanse, with localized peaks around 32–34°C, further facilitated this intensification by fueling release through and . High tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) complemented these conditions, minimizing cooling effects from and , thus maintaining a warm oceanic upper layer conducive to vortex strengthening. Atmospheric factors included near-100% mid-tropospheric relative humidity (MTRH), which suppressed entrainment of dry air and supported persistent deep convection, alongside low vertical wind shear that allowed unimpeded organizational growth of the cyclone's structure. Enhanced diabatic heating from intense rainfall, particularly in the front-left quadrant relative to the storm's motion, contributed to eyewall contraction and central pressure falls, amplifying the pressure gradient and wind speeds. Oceanic mesoscale eddies influenced the pre-storm environment by modulating heat distribution, with anticyclonic eddies potentially enhancing local OHC and promoting of warmer waters that sustained the cyclone's energy supply during its growth phase. observations confirmed the formation of a distinct eye during this period, indicative of the internal dynamics aligning with these external forcings.

Attribution to climate variability and change

The rapid intensification of Cyclone Amphan from a cyclonic to a super cyclonic on May 18–19, 2020, was facilitated by sea surface s exceeding 30°C and elevated in the , providing substantial for development. A concurrent , characterized by sea surface anomalies greater than 2.5°C in the western , aligned with the cyclone's track and contributed to sustained intensification by limiting cooling feedback from wind-induced mixing until landfall. Subsurface warming, with temperatures 1.5–2°C above seasonal averages in parts of the basin, further supported this process by replenishing surface heat during the 's passage. Anthropogenic has contributed to the observed long-term warming of sea surface temperatures, averaging 0.5–1°C since the mid-20th century, which enhances the for intensification through increased atmospheric moisture and release. However, direct attribution of Amphan's specific intensity to human-induced warming remains probabilistic, as natural variability—such as pre-monsoon heating and intra-seasonal oscillations—also influenced the event's environmental setup. Projections from climate models indicate that while overall frequency in the North may decline, the proportion of rapidly intensifying or Category 4–5 storms could rise under continued , amplifying risks from Amphan-scale events. Empirical analyses confirm that warmer baseline conditions, irrespective of variability modes, lower the threshold for extreme intensification in the region.

Lessons for cyclone preparedness and future risk reduction

The relatively low death toll during Cyclone Amphan—approximately 26 in and 90 in despite winds exceeding 260 km/h and widespread —demonstrated the life-saving efficacy of advanced early warning systems and large-scale evacuations, with over 2.4 million people relocated in alone and millions more in Bangladesh coastal districts. Forecast-based anticipatory actions, including pre-positioning of relief supplies and activation of community networks days before landfall on May 20, 2020, further mitigated immediate human impacts by enabling proactive sheltering and aid distribution. However, the cyclone's overlap with the exposed vulnerabilities in shelter capacity and public compliance, as reduced usable space in cyclone shelters from an estimated 500,000 to 200,000 people in affected areas, necessitating repurposed facilities like schools and temporary sites while balancing health risks. This highlighted the need for multi-hazard early warning frameworks that integrate cascading risks, such as disease outbreaks, into preparedness protocols to avoid trade-offs between evacuation and infection control. For future risk reduction, Amphan underscored the importance of enhancing infrastructural , including expanded cyclone-resistant shelters, elevated roads, and private-sector partnerships for rapid mobilization, as post-event assessments revealed gaps in durable and power grid recovery amid $13 billion in damages. Community-level measures, such as regular drills, risk communication via local networks, and preservation of natural barriers like mangroves—which attenuated heights but proved insufficient against the storm's scale—should be prioritized to build . Projections indicate heightened exposure to Amphan-scale events under continued sea-level rise and intensification, with India's coastal facing over 200% increase in extreme surge flooding risk by 2100, necessitating integrated risk assessments that incorporate physics-based modeling of storm tides and demographic shifts for targeted investments in and . Strengthening cross-border coordination, leveraging improved accuracy that provided 72-hour lead times for Amphan, and embedding these into national disaster management cycles will be critical for scaling against recurrent threats.

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