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Khamsin

Khamsin is a hot, dry, sand- and dust-laden southerly wind that periodically sweeps across Egypt, the Levant, and parts of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, originating from the Sahara Desert. The term derives from the Arabic rīḥ al-khamsīn, meaning "wind of the fifty," alluding to its traditional association with a roughly 50-day period of occurrence from mid-March to mid-May, though episodes can arise in other seasons. Characterized by gusts from the southeast to southwest, khamsin events feature extreme aridity with relative humidity often below 5%, rapid temperature surges of up to 20°C within hours, and dense airborne particulates that severely reduce visibility and generate dust storms. These winds, akin to the broader Sirocco phenomenon, disrupt agriculture by desiccating crops and soil, exacerbate respiratory issues through inhaled dust, and historically prompted cultural adaptations such as sheltering practices in affected regions. While lacking inherent controversies, khamsin's intensity underscores vulnerabilities in arid climates to episodic meteorological extremes, with empirical records showing variable frequency tied to pressure systems over North Africa.

Definition and Characteristics

Etymology and Terminology

The term khamsin derives from the rīḥ al-khamsīn (ريح الخمسين), literally "wind of the fifty," where khamsīn (خمسين) means "fifty." This refers to the wind's typical occurrence over an approximate 50-day span in spring, from mid-March to late May in regions like and the . The association with "fifty" may also evoke the biblical or ecclesiastical period of 50 days between and in some historical interpretations, though the primary link is to the seasonal duration. Alternative transliterations and spellings in English include khamseen, chamsin, hamsin, and khamaseen, reflecting phonetic variations in pronunciation and adoption since the . The word entered English usage by 1685, denoting the hot, dry southerly or southeasterly gusts originating from the . In Hebrew-speaking contexts, such as , the phenomenon is often termed sharav (שרב), meaning "heat haze" or "," but khamsin remains prevalent in Arabic-influenced terminology for the same events. These terms distinguish khamsin from broader regional hot winds like the simoom (a more intense, poisonously dry Arabian variant) or the Mediterranean , emphasizing its specific Saharan-Egyptian profile.

Meteorological Properties

The Khamsin is a hot, dry, southerly to southeasterly wind originating from the Sahara Desert, carrying significant loads of dust and sand that reduce visibility and create hazy conditions. It features low relative humidity, often dropping below 10-30% depending on location, which exacerbates aridity and contributes to rapid evaporation. Temperatures during Khamsin events frequently exceed 40°C and can surpass 45°C, with potential rapid rises of up to 20°C within hours due to adiabatic heating and ground warming. Wind speeds typically range from strong gusts to extremes reaching 140 km/h, capable of mobilizing fine particles into the atmosphere. Dust concentrations can peak dramatically, as observed in specific episodes where surface levels exceeded 6 /m³, resulting from southerly flows enhanced by synoptic features like low-pressure systems. These properties combine to produce oppressive atmospheric conditions, with the dry promoting foehn-like effects in downstream areas.

Seasonal Patterns and Duration

Khamsin winds predominantly occur during late winter and spring, spanning from to across and the , driven by seasonal low-pressure systems that facilitate southerly airflow from regions. The phenomenon peaks in and , coinciding with frequent cyclonic depressions that transport northward, as observed in transport patterns toward urban centers like . These patterns align with broader Mediterranean synoptic conditions where tropospheric folding enhances mobilization during this transitional period. Individual Khamsin episodes typically endure for a few hours to several days, with winds intensifying rapidly—often raising temperatures by up to 20°C within hours—before subsiding abruptly as the associated depression moves eastward. In regions like the and Egyptian deserts, events rarely extend beyond two to three days, though prolonged dust suspension can occur under persistent southerly flow. Frequency varies annually but is concentrated in , with multiple episodes possible during the roughly 50-day window following the vernal , reflecting the etymological root of the term in for "fifty."

Formation and Causes

Atmospheric Dynamics

The Khamsin wind arises primarily from synoptic-scale cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Sirte in Libya, where depressions form through a combination of weak large-scale baroclinity, vigorous boundary-layer baroclinity driven by the meridional temperature contrast between the cool Mediterranean Sea (typically 15–20°C in spring) and the heated desert surface (often exceeding 30°C), and diabatic heating in the lower troposphere that releases latent heat and destabilizes the column. These processes generate a deepening low-pressure system, with central pressures dropping to around 1000–1010 hPa, establishing a steep surface pressure gradient (up to 5–10 hPa per 100 km) between the subtropical high over the Sahara and the cyclone. The gradient accelerates southerly to southwesterly winds to 10–20 m/s at the surface, advecting hot, dry air from Saharan source regions northward at low altitudes of 0.5–3 km along the warm conveyor belt preceding the cyclone's cold front. Upper-tropospheric dynamics amplify these events through amplification or troughs associated with weakening, promoting meridional transport of cold polar air masses and inducing tropospheric folding. This folding enhances vertical (up to 20–30 m/s in the 500–200 layer) and creates a strong mid- to upper-level jet streak (speeds of 50–70 m/s), which deepens the surface low via ageostrophic divergence aloft and convergent pumping below. The jet's rear entrance region over the further intensifies low-level cyclonic flow, channeling desert outflow into the and . At meso- and boundary-layer scales, nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs) form under over the , with winds peaking at 15–25 m/s near the 500–1000 m level due to inertial oscillation and reduced friction aloft. Post-sunrise turbulent mixing erodes the inversion, the LLJ and injecting momentum downward to the surface, where gusts can exceed 25 m/s, eroding loose and lifting particles via saltation and suspension processes. Adiabatic compression during descent over topographic barriers, such as the or Judean hills, produces Foehn-like warming (temperature rises of 5–10°C) and leeside downdrafts that deposit while accelerating surface flow. These dynamics sustain the Khamsin's intensity for 1–3 days until frontal passage disrupts the .

Synoptic Conditions

Khamsin events typically arise under synoptic patterns featuring a low-pressure system, often a "Khamsin depression," forming in the lee of the in and propagating eastward or northeastward across the Mediterranean toward and the . This cyclonic circulation interacts with persistent high-pressure ridges over the Desert or , establishing a steep gradient that drives strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 50 km/h, channeling hot, dry air from desert interiors into populated areas. At mid-tropospheric levels (around 500 ), a deep trough extending from the or amplifies the low-level convergence, promoting dust uplift and adiabatic warming through aloft, with temperatures rising 10–15°C above normals within hours. Upper-level divergence, often linked to a strong subtropical positioned south of the low, further intensifies the vertical motion and wind speeds, sustaining the event for 1–3 days. Contributory features include the Trough, which deepens southward to enhance low-level moisture contrasts and instability, or a closed upper low over the that blocks westerly flows and favors meridional exchanges. These patterns peak in spring (March–May), when baroclinic activity weakens the subtropical ridge, allowing transient cyclones to penetrate the region and override stable layers. In some instances, high-pressure dominance over isolates the , preventing dilution by influences until the front passage.

Relation to Broader Weather Systems

The Khamsin is embedded within synoptic-scale weather patterns characterized by the development of warm low-pressure systems, known as Khamsin or Sharav depressions, over the southeastern Mediterranean or coasts, typically during months. These depressions create a that draws hot, dry air from the northward, often accompanied by dust-laden southerly flows. Such systems frequently originate as shallow lows forming in the lee of the , propagating eastward or northeastward under the influence of upper-level dynamics. On a broader atmospheric scale, Khamsin events arise from interactions between Mediterranean cyclones and subtropical high-pressure ridges or heat lows over , including the Sudanese low. A weakening polar vortex at upper levels promotes meridional transport of polar air masses, inducing tropospheric folding and a intensified jet stream, which facilitates the advection of Saharan air masses into the region. This synoptic configuration often features a surface low advancing from the northwest, with anticyclonic blocking in the Mediterranean enhancing southerly winds ahead of the system's eastern flank. Khamsin-related dust outbreaks connect to larger-scale African dust transport pathways, driven by closed low-pressure centers over the coupled with deep troughs extending into at 500 hPa levels. These patterns underscore the Khamsin's role as a regional manifestation of hemispheric circulation variability, including influences from mid-latitude Rossby waves and seasonal shifts in the subtropical jet.

Regional Variations

In Egypt

In Egypt, the Khamsin manifests as episodic hot, dry southerly or southeasterly winds originating from the Desert, primarily affecting the Valley and regions between March and May. These events, locally termed khamaseen, typically last 1 to 3 days each and can number up to 50 occurrences over the season, aligning with the etymology meaning "fifty." Wind speeds frequently exceed 100 km/h, with peaks recorded at 140 km/h, while air temperatures rise sharply—often by 20°C within two hours—reaching maxima above 45°C and relative humidity falling below 5%. The winds carry substantial loads of fine sand and dust from desert sources, drastically reducing visibility to under 100 meters in severe cases and depositing sediments that exacerbate in agricultural areas. In urban centers like , Khamsin episodes prompt alerts due to elevated levels, which aggravate respiratory conditions; authorities often close schools and limit outdoor activities, as observed during late April 2025 storms. Rural experiences intensified impacts, with dust storms hindering irrigation and crop growth, particularly for and during the pre-harvest period. Meteorological records indicate Khamsin intensity correlates with low-pressure systems over the Mediterranean drawing in air masses, with frequency varying annually but peaking in . Historical data from weather stations document events since the early , showing no long-term decline despite broader trends, though urban expansion has amplified localized dust mobilization.

In the Levant (Israel and Palestinian Territories)

In the Levant, particularly Israel and the Palestinian territories, the khamsin is locally termed sharav in Hebrew or hamsin in Arabic, referring to episodes of intense heat and aridity driven by easterly or southeasterly winds originating from desert regions. These events are characterized by maximum temperatures exceeding 5°C above the perennial average and surpassing 27°C, accompanied by relative humidity below 30% along the coastal plain or below 20% inland, often reaching 40°C or higher during severe occurrences. Southeasterly winds carry Saharan dust and haze, reducing visibility and elevating particulate matter concentrations, with springtime sharav cyclones contributing to natural dust outbreaks that result in annual PM10 means of 57 μg/m³ or more in affected areas. Sharav lows, the synoptic systems fueling these winds, form primarily in from to mid-June, originating over northwest due to contrasts between the hot and cooler Mediterranean, and are amplified by the leeward effects of the . These lows track eastward along North 's coast, reaching Egypt's or before advancing northeast toward Israel's coastline and the Palestinian territories, where southern winds initially deliver the hot, dry air mass before shifting westerly, ushering in rapid cooling within 24–36 hours. Episodes typically last 1–1.5 days, though cumulative occurrences can span up to 50 days in total, with dust mobilization from North African deserts enhancing over the eastern basin. In and territories, sharav events uniformly impact coastal, inland, and zones, with inland areas like the experiencing more pronounced aridity due to lower baseline humidity. These winds exacerbate transport, with 36% of sharav lows associated with significant loading from sources, contributing to one-third of Israel's annual yield alongside other systems. effects include heightened respiratory irritation from fine , while ecological stress manifests in wilting under the desiccating conditions, though no distinct differentiation in intensity occurs between and Palestinian locales given the shared and exposure to the same airstreams.

Extensions to Other Areas

The Khamsin phenomenon extends westward into , where analogous hot, dry, dust-laden winds are known as the . These southeasterly gusts originate from interiors, exacerbated by Mediterranean depressions, and transport vast quantities of toward coastal areas, persisting for days at a time. Ghibli events occur year-round but peak in and , mirroring the seasonal timing of Khamsin in eastern regions, with winds blowing from the south several times annually, particularly from late spring through summer. This wind contributes to the arid climate across Libya, intensifying and reducing visibility along Mediterranean shores. Similar desert winds affect the , where southeasterly flows from n and Egyptian deserts carry dust into and surrounding areas, often under the broader Khamsin designation. These extensions link to expansive Saharan anticyclones, fostering oppressive and sandy conditions intermittent in late winter and spring. In , related dust storms termed arise from similar synoptic setups, though frequently tied to thunderstorm outflows, generating intense, wall-like dust fronts akin to extreme Khamsin episodes. Such variations highlight the regional adaptability of these Saharan-origin winds, influencing weather patterns across and into adjacent peninsular territories.

Environmental and Societal Impacts

Agricultural and Ecological Effects

Khamsin winds, with their high temperatures often exceeding 40°C and low relative humidity below 10%, accelerate evapotranspiration rates, desiccating crops and reducing yields in vulnerable areas like Egypt's Nile Delta and the Levant. The dry conditions promote excessive soil moisture loss, stressing irrigated crops such as wheat and cotton, which constitute major agricultural outputs in these regions. Dust and sand particles transported by Khamsin abrade plant tissues through , damaging leaves and young seedlings, while silting irrigation canals and wells disrupts water delivery in northern . This physical and burial under layers can lead to up to 20-30% yield losses in exposed fields during severe events, as observed in spring storms. Ecologically, Khamsin exacerbates in arid zones, removing rich in and accelerating processes across and the . The winds' gusts, reaching speeds over 100 km/h, strip vegetation cover, reducing in semi-arid ecosystems and hindering natural regeneration of native flora. Livestock face heightened mortality risks from heat stress and dust inhalation, further straining pastoral ecosystems.

Health and Visibility Hazards

The Khamsin wind carries substantial quantities of fine particles, elevating airborne concentrations and posing risks to respiratory health, particularly exacerbating conditions such as , , and other pulmonary diseases through inhalation of aerosols. These particles, often including PM10 and PM2.5 sizes, can penetrate deep into the lungs, triggering inflammation, , and acute symptoms like coughing, wheezing, and , with vulnerable populations including children, the elderly, and those with pre-existing allergies or experiencing heightened severity. Studies on analogous events indicate increased hospital admissions for cardiorespiratory issues during such episodes, underscoring the causal link between dust exposure and adverse health outcomes. In addition to dust, the Khamsin's extreme heat—frequently exceeding 40°C (104°F) with low humidity—contributes to , , and cardiovascular strain, compounding discomfort and among exposed individuals outdoors or in inadequately ventilated spaces. Eye irritation from abrasive sand and reduced air quality further amplifies general malaise, though empirical data on heat-specific morbidity during Khamsin remains less quantified compared to dust-related effects. Visibility during Khamsin events often plummets to below 1 km or near zero in intense dust-laden outbreaks, impairing road, air, and maritime travel across affected regions like and the . For instance, a Khamsin in April 2025 across drastically cut visibility in and , prompting school closures and transport advisories. Similar reductions have been documented in and the , where gusts up to 80 km/h suspend vast dust clouds, turning daytime skies hazy and orange. These visibility impairments elevate accident risks, particularly traffic collisions on highways and roads, as drivers navigate obscured conditions without adequate warning . Historical patterns in show heightened vehicular incidents during peak Khamsin periods, with sandy "fog" encouraging hazardous driving and occasional road closures, such as on Jordan's Desert Highway. disruptions, including flight delays or diversions, also occur when dust affects airport operations, as seen in regional events extending to multiple Arab states.

Economic and Infrastructural Consequences

The high-velocity winds and associated sand abrasion of khamsin events erode exposed , including , bridges, and utility poles, while dust accumulation impairs electrical and systems by reducing efficiency and causing mechanical wear. In regions like and the , these winds exacerbate degradation of building facades and roofing through , necessitating frequent repairs that strain local budgets. Transportation networks face severe disruptions from khamsin-induced visibility reductions to near zero, leading to road closures, increased accident risks, and halts in maritime and air traffic. For instance, khamsin winds contributed to the March 23, 2021, grounding of the container ship in the , where gusts exceeding 40 km/h, combined with sand, shifted the vessel and blocked global trade routes for six days, resulting in daily economic losses estimated at $9 billion to $10 billion from delayed shipments. Airports in affected areas, such as Cairo International, routinely suspend operations during intense events, compounding logistical delays. Economically, khamsin-driven sand and storms contribute to annual regional losses exceeding $13 billion in the , encompassing repair costs, productivity declines from halted commerce, and diminished energy output from fouled solar panels and transmission lines. These impacts are amplified in arid zones where khamsin originates, as wind-transported settle on equipment, accelerating and necessitating enhanced protective measures like dust barriers, which add to infrastructural expenses.

Historical and Scientific Observations

Ancient and Biblical References

In the , hot, dry desert winds comparable to the modern khamsin are frequently described as the ruach kadim or "," a phenomenon recognized in the for its scorching heat, dust-laden gusts, and capacity to devastate and human activity. These references, dating to compositions between the 10th and 5th centuries BCE, portray the wind as both a and a divine instrument, often originating from desert regions and exacerbating seasonal hardships in and the . A prominent example occurs in the , where an , blowing from across the , ushers in the eighth plague by transporting swarms into , devastating crops after seven days of preparation (Exodus 10:13). This depiction aligns with observed khamsin dynamics, as southeasterly winds in can carry over long distances while drying out vegetation. The same narrative later attributes the parting of the to a "strong " that blows all night, creating a path through the waters ( 14:21), underscoring the wind's intense, sustained measurable in modern terms at 30-50 km/h or more during peak events. Additional biblical allusions emphasize the wind's withering effects, such as in Genesis 41:6, where it blights Pharaoh's seven ears of grain in a dream foreshadowing famine, or Ezekiel 17:10, where it dries up a transplanted vine as a symbol of failed alliances. In prophetic , 13:15 invokes the "" as the "wind of the " rising from the to strip away prosperity, reflecting its role in historical droughts and crop failures documented in regional paleoclimatic records from the late onward. Scholars interpret these as allusions to sirocco-like winds, including khamsin variants, which in contexts blow from the south or southeast rather than strictly east, due to topographic influences on local wind . Pre-biblical ancient Egyptian records, such as inscriptions from circa 2500 BCE, allude to seasonal hot winds and sandstorms as environmental hazards but do not employ the Arabic-derived term khamsin, which emerged later to denote the roughly 50-day spring period of such events. Hieroglyphic depictions of wind deities like or storm gods in evoke forceful desert gales, yet lack specific meteorological attributions verifiable as khamsin equivalents without anachronism.

Modern Meteorological Studies

Modern meteorological investigations of the Khamsin wind employ synoptic-scale analysis to link its occurrence to upper-level troughs and low-pressure systems over the Mediterranean, which draw hot, dry air from the Sahara Desert southward, often during spring months from March to May. These studies, utilizing reanalysis datasets such as ERA-Interim, identify Khamsin as a föhn-like flow enhanced by tropospheric folding, where stratospheric air intrusion promotes adiabatic warming and dust uplift from North African sources. Numerical weather prediction models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, simulate these dynamics by resolving wind veering from southerly to westerly directions post-cold frontal passage, with horizontal resolutions down to 3 km capturing mesoscale features like orographic enhancement over terrain. Remote sensing and ground-based observations have quantified Khamsin characteristics, revealing gusts exceeding 20 m/s, temperatures rising 10–15°C above normals, and relative dropping below 10% during events, as documented in analyses of dust-laden outbreaks affecting the . Peer-reviewed examinations of specific episodes, such as the March 2018 dust storm impacting , demonstrate how Khamsin flows advect over 1,000 , with optical depths surpassing 2.0, though models often underpredict loading due to insufficient source parameterization. Complementary research on Middle Eastern frontal dust storms highlights recurring pressure gradients of 10–15 hPa per 100 driving southerly jets, corroborated by satellite-derived wind vectors from MODIS and lidars. Forecasting advancements integrate ensemble predictions from global models like ECMWF, which anticipate Khamsin onset 48–72 hours ahead by tracking intensification over and , though local dust mobilization remains challenging owing to variable surface emissivity. Investigations into coupled atmosphere-dust systems emphasize causal linkages between Saharan heat lows and baroclinic instability, rejecting oversimplified seasonal attributions in favor of dynamical triggers validated against in-situ data from stations in and , where events occur 5–10 times annually. These empirical approaches prioritize verifiable synoptic evolutions over narrative-driven interpretations, underscoring Khamsin's predictability within operational frameworks despite episodic intensity variations.

Notable Events

During the North African campaign of World War II, particularly in the Western Desert, Khamsin winds disrupted Allied and Axis operations by carrying fine sand particles that blinded troops and induced electrostatic charges, rendering magnetic compasses unreliable for navigation. These conditions, occurring amid the harsh spring weather of 1941–1942, compounded logistical challenges for forces like the British Eighth Army and German Afrika Korps, delaying advances and increasing equipment failures in battles such as Gazala and Tobruk. In early May 2025, a severe Khamsin event generated widespread dust storms across nine Arab nations—, , , , , , , , and —resulting in school and exam closures, flight disruptions, and heightened respiratory issues amid regional conflicts. The storm's intensity, driven by southerly winds exceeding 50 km/h, reduced visibility to under 100 meters in and , exacerbating aid delivery obstacles in during ongoing hostilities. Historical accounts also note Khamsin episodes in April 2007, when dust plumes blanketed and , grounding flights and prompting health alerts for over 1,000 respiratory cases in urban areas like . Such events underscore the wind's capacity for rapid escalation, with satellite data recording levels surpassing 500 μg/m³ in affected zones.

Cultural and Modern Significance

References in Literature and Folklore

In and , the khamsin is depicted as a malevolent entity, often termed the "devil " for its capacity to unleash choking sandstorms, elevate temperatures to over 40°C (104°F), and induce physical distress or psychological turmoil among those exposed. Traditional accounts portray it as a seasonal affliction lasting roughly fifty days—whence its khamsīn, meaning "fifty"—capable of withering crops, blinding travelers, and exacerbating illnesses through , with elders advising indoors to evade its wrath. Literary depictions frequently invoke the khamsin to evoke themes of environmental peril and human vulnerability. In Inge H. Borg's historical novel Khamsin: The Devil Wind of the Nile (2011), the wind ravages during the reign of King (c. 3000 BCE), symbolizing chaotic forces amid political intrigue and natural devastation, drawing on its real meteorological profile of hot, dust-laden gusts originating from depressions. Amos Oz's "Where the Jackals Howl" (from The Complete Stories, 2004) uses the khamsin to illustrate seasonal and existential unease in a transitional , where its warm currents pierce lingering summer heat, mirroring societal shifts in mid-20th-century . Michael Ondaatje's The English Patient (1992) catalogs the khamsin among regional , noting its March-to-May onset as a gritty Egyptian that sighs toward the sky, underscoring its role in narratives of isolation and endurance. These portrayals align with empirical observations of the wind's sirocco-like dynamics, amplifying its folkloric dread into symbolic literary motifs without embellishing unverified supernatural elements.

Contemporary Adaptations and Forecasting

Modern forecasting of Khamsin events integrates models, satellite for dust plume tracking, and analysis of synoptic patterns such as in the Gulf of and tropospheric folding to anticipate wind intensification and particle emissions. In , the Meteorological Authority issues targeted alerts specifying wind speeds of 40-60 km/h with gusts reaching 80 km/h, visibility reductions to under 1 km in some areas, and regional variations across North , , the , , and the , as demonstrated by the high-impact warning on April 29, 2025, for an imminent storm. Israel's Meteorological Service similarly incorporates and sandstorm probabilities into daily forecasts, enabling proactive alerts for affected regions. These methods have improved lead times for warnings, allowing authorities to predict disruptions like hazardous conditions with up to 3 meters and reduced from blowing sand. Empirical forecasting techniques, including assessments and historical data correlations, further refine predictions for and operations in Khamsin-prone areas. Regional efforts, such as the ' real-time monitoring systems, exemplify broader MENA adaptations that could extend to Khamsin tracking through enhanced sensor networks and AI-driven models. Contemporary societal adaptations emphasize personal protective measures during events, including wearing masks to guard against dust inhalation, sealing homes to limit particle entry, and avoiding elevated areas like rooftops or balconies where winds can dislodge objects or laundry. Public advisories from meteorological agencies urge limiting outdoor activities, securing loose items, and monitoring vulnerable structures to prevent collapses under gusts. Infrastructure enhancements, such as wind-resistant designs in new builds and air quality filtration upgrades, mitigate economic losses from visibility impairments and transport halts, though implementation varies across urban and rural settings in Egypt and the Levant. Climate model projections for the Mediterranean region suggest potential changes in the dynamics of southerly hot winds akin to khamsin, with simulations under CORDEX scenarios indicating a decrease in event frequency and reduced mean wind speeds, particularly in winter and spring periods when khamsin typically occurs. Observational records and peer-reviewed assessments reveal limited data on long-term trends in khamsin or intensity, precluding definitive attribution to . A U.S. report on highlights that insufficient research prevents reliable predictions for extremes like khamsin, despite general regional warming of 1-2°C since the late . Theoretical analyses of hot, dry, windy events (HDWs) posit that rising global temperatures could elevate their occurrence by enhancing evaporative demand and , a mechanism potentially applicable to khamsin given its reliance on Saharan . However, regional increases may amplify mobilization during events without necessarily altering , as drier soils lower thresholds. Empirical validation for khamsin-specific intensification remains absent, underscoring uncertainties in causal links amid broader Mediterranean drying trends.

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