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CO2 fertilization effect

![Chen_2022_CO2_fertilization_map.jpg][float-right] The CO2 fertilization effect describes the enhancement of plant growth and productivity driven by elevated atmospheric concentrations, primarily through accelerated and reduced , resulting in increased accumulation and crop yields. Empirical evidence from free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments demonstrates average yield increases of 12-14% for major crops under elevated CO2 levels approximating future projections, with higher responses up to 35% observed in high-yield cultivars. observations further corroborate this, attributing approximately 70% of the trend since the 1980s to CO2 fertilization, alongside contributions from deposition and . This effect plays a pivotal role in the terrestrial , with analyses estimating that CO2-driven enhancements have added 13.5-15.9 PgC annually to global vegetation uptake in recent decades. However, its persistence faces constraints from availability, , and interactions, as some studies report a potential decline in marginal benefits over time due to limitations, though data and forest FACE results indicate sustained enhancements under diverse conditions. Controversies arise regarding the effect's long-term magnitude, with debates over dilution potentially reducing nutritional quality and varying regional responses influenced by or , yet field-based syntheses affirm net positive impacts on plant productivity absent overriding stressors.

Definition and Mechanism

Biochemical and Physiological Processes

The CO2 fertilization effect arises primarily from enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation, particularly in C3 plants, where elevated atmospheric CO2 increases substrate availability at the site of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (), the key enzyme in the Calvin-Benson cycle. This favors the of ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate (RuBP) over its oxygenation, directly elevating the rate of CO2 assimilation into organic compounds. Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments, exposing crops and natural to CO2 levels around 550-600 , have demonstrated net increases of approximately 31% compared to ambient conditions (around 370-400 during study periods). A parallel biochemical process is the suppression of photorespiration, in which Rubisco's oxygenation activity initiates a cycle that releases previously fixed CO2 and consumes ATP and NADPH without net carbon gain. Under current ambient CO2, can dissipate 20-25% of photosynthetic electron transport at 25°C, with rates rising exponentially at higher temperatures; elevated CO2 inhibits this by competitively reducing the oxygenation-to-carboxylation ratio (Vc:Vo), thereby improving carbon fixation efficiency. This effect is most pronounced in species, where photorespiration represents a significant energetic cost, but negligible in plants due to their inherent CO2-concentrating mechanisms that minimize oxygenation. Physiologically, elevated CO2 triggers stomatal closure, reducing conductance by about 20% in FACE settings, which limits transpirational while maintaining adequate internal CO2 for saturation. This adjustment enhances intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUE, defined as carbon assimilated per unit water transpired) by roughly 48%, as evidenced in long-term field data spanning the rise from pre-industrial to modern CO2 levels. However, chronic exposure induces acclimation responses, including down-regulation of content and activity—often by 10-20% after months to years—driven by feedback from accumulated carbohydrates like and , which signal reduced investment in photosynthetic machinery.

Variations Across Plant Types

The CO2 fertilization effect varies significantly across plant photosynthetic pathways, primarily due to differences in carbon fixation mechanisms and stomatal responses. plants, which comprise approximately 85% of plant species including most trees, temperate crops like and , and many herbaceous species, exhibit the strongest relative growth enhancement from elevated CO2. In these plants, higher CO2 concentrations suppress —a process where oxygenase activity competes with —and improve water-use efficiency by allowing partial stomatal closure without curtailing carbon assimilation. Meta-analyses of Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments indicate that doubling atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial levels (around 280 to 560 ) typically boosts by 20-40%, with increases averaging 19% for C3 crops at CO2 levels rising from 353 to 550 . C4 plants, such as , , and tropical grasses, demonstrate a muted response to CO2 enrichment because their bundle-sheath anatomy already concentrates CO2 around , minimizing even at ambient levels. This , evolved for hot, dry environments, results in negligible or small gains (often 0-10%) under elevated CO2, as confirmed by long-term field studies and meta-analyses showing C4 yields largely unaffected by CO2 rises to 550 . Consequently, rising CO2 can shift competitive advantages toward C3 species in mixed ecosystems, potentially altering compositions where C4 dominance prevails under current conditions. Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) plants, including succulents like agaves and cacti adapted to arid habitats, display intermediate responses, with increasing by an average of 35% under doubled CO2 concentrations. species fix CO2 nocturnally via , storing it as malic acid for daytime and activity, which reduces water loss but limits overall photosynthetic rates compared to or . Elevated CO2 enhances this efficiency by boosting nocturnal uptake and reducing daytime stomatal opening, though benefits may plateau if nutrient limitations arise; experimental data from species like Agave vilmoriniana confirm positive growth effects without the pronounced relief seen in plants. These pathway-specific variations underscore that while global greening trends are dominated by -dominated forests and crops, and biomes may experience subdued or context-dependent fertilization, influenced further by local factors like nutrients and temperature.

Historical Context and Early Evidence

Discovery and Initial Observations

The essential role of atmospheric (CO₂) in growth was established in the early through experiments demonstrating its fixation during . In 1804, Nicolas-Théodore de Saussure conducted precise measurements showing that CO₂ serves as the primary carbon source for biomass accumulation, with growing incorporating carbon from the atmosphere into organic matter while releasing oxygen. These findings built on earlier work by Jean Senebier, who in the late confirmed that require CO₂ for "fixed air" assimilation in the presence of light, but de Saussure quantified the , revealing that dry weight gains exceed absorbed CO₂ mass due to water integration. By the late , researchers began observing that ambient CO₂ levels could limit rates, marking the initial recognition of a potential fertilization effect. In 1879, Thomas Ball noted ' sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ variations, countering prevailing views that dismissed such dependency. Wilhelm Pfeffer advanced this understanding through pioneering controlled experiments in growth chambers, the first such setups for seed , where he depleted CO₂ in enclosed environments and observed stunted vegetative development. Supplementing with elevated CO₂ restored and accelerated , establishing CO₂ as a limiting factor for and production. Pfeffer detailed these results in his 1897 Pflanzenphysiologie textbook, providing that higher CO₂ concentrations enhance plant productivity under non-limiting light and nutrients. These laboratory demonstrations laid the groundwork for recognizing the CO₂ fertilization effect, though initial observations were confined to short-term chamber studies on individual plants or small groups. Pfeffer's work highlighted causal mechanisms via osmotic and physiological responses, showing dose-dependent growth enhancements without invoking unverified assumptions about long-term acclimation. Early 20th-century horticultural applications in greenhouses further corroborated these findings, with practitioners noting improved yields from CO₂ enrichment, though systematic field validations emerged later.

Pre-Satellite Era Studies

Early investigations into the CO2 fertilization effect prior to the widespread use of satellite remote sensing relied on controlled enclosure experiments, primarily in greenhouses and phytotrons, to quantify plant responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These studies, dating back to the late , demonstrated that increasing CO2 beyond ambient levels enhanced and production in various species by alleviating the limitation imposed by CO2 availability in the . Wilhelm Pfeffer's foundational work in the 1890s, using early growth chambers, provided the first experimental evidence that CO2 acts as a for vegetative growth, with plants exhibiting accelerated development when supplied with higher CO2 levels in enclosed setups. In the mid-20th century, quantitative greenhouse experiments on crops such as , , and soybeans consistently reported biomass increases of 20-50% under CO2 doublings from pre-industrial levels (around 280-300 to 560-600 ), with greater responses observed in plants due to improved efficiency and reduced . For instance, studies in the and by researchers like Gaastra measured elevated net assimilation rates in leaves exposed to 400-1000 CO2, attributing gains to higher intercellular CO2 partial pressures that minimized Rubisco's oxygenase activity. These findings were corroborated in phytotron facilities established post-World War II, where controlled conditions allowed isolation of CO2 effects from confounding variables, though results varied with nutrient availability and light intensity—nutrient-limited plants showed diminished responses. Field-scale approximations emerged in the and through open-top chambers (OTCs), which minimized enclosure artifacts compared to fully closed greenhouses; early OTC trials on soybeans in 1975 reported yield enhancements of up to 40% at 550 CO2, alongside improved water-use efficiency from partial stomatal closure. However, these pre-satellite studies were constrained by small plot sizes (often <1 m²), potential alterations, and focus on single-season crops, limiting extrapolation to natural ecosystems or long-term dynamics. Meta-analyses of over 100 such experiments conducted before 1980, synthesizing data from diverse setups, estimated an average 33% increase in plant dry weight per 300 CO2 enrichment, establishing the effect's robustness while highlighting dependencies on environmental co-factors like temperature and .

Observational Evidence from Global Monitoring

Satellite-Derived Greening Trends

Satellite data, primarily from instruments such as the (AVHRR) and (MODIS), have revealed a widespread trend in global vegetation since the early , measured through increases in the (NDVI) and (LAI). From 1982 to 2015, growing season integrated LAI increased persistently over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated land area, equivalent to an addition of green leaf area exceeding twice the continental . This greening is evident across diverse biomes, including forests, croplands, and grasslands, with particularly strong signals in and due to both environmental and land-use factors. Attribution analyses using models indicate that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are the dominant driver of this observed greening, accounting for approximately 70% of the trend, while deposition and factors contribute smaller shares of 9% and 8%, respectively. Land-use explains the remainder but is secondary when isolated in simulations. These findings align with biophysical principles where higher CO2 enhances and reduces water loss through stomatal closure, promoting leaf expansion particularly in water-limited regions. Recent extensions of the record through 2020 confirm the persistence of greening, with 55% of global land areas showing accelerated rates from 2001 to 2020, concentrated in regions like and zones. However, some analyses detect a slowdown or regional browning amid ongoing , potentially linked to limitations diminishing the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) over time. CFE declined from 1982 to 2015, correlating with availability, suggesting saturation in responsive ecosystems. Despite this, 2020 marked the record highest vegetation greenness in satellite records since 2000, attributed partly to CO2 alongside favorable in temperate and areas. Model simulations controlling for reinforce CO2's primacy, attributing nearly all residual to fertilization rather than alone. These trends underscore CO2's causal role while highlighting interacting constraints like and nutrients that modulate long-term responses.

Eddy Covariance and Flux Tower Data

Eddy covariance flux towers measure turbulent fluxes of CO2, , and at scales using high-frequency sensors on towers, providing direct estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange () without relying on models or enclosures. Networks like FLUXNET, comprising over 1,000 sites worldwide since the 1990s, aggregate these observations to detect long-term trends in carbon uptake attributable to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analyses of FLUXNET data have isolated the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) by partitioning GPP trends against climatic variables, revealing enhanced photosynthetic rates concurrent with CO2 increases of approximately 50 ppm since the 1980s. A global assessment of records estimated CFE as a 5.3 ± 2.5% increase in GPP per 100 ppm CO2 rise, with stronger effects in water-limited ecosystems due to concurrent improvements in water-use efficiency. This quantification aligns with biochemical expectations of saturation under elevated CO2, as flux data show reduced midday photosynthetic depression and elevated seasonal carbon assimilation. In extratropical forests, a statistical of 38 long-term flux tower records (spanning 1990–2020) attributed a gain of 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹ per ppm CO2 increase to sustained photosynthetic , of or trends. These sites, primarily and coniferous stands, exhibited persistent CFE without evidence of saturation over decades, supporting causal inference from CO2's role in kinetics. data further indicate that CFE contributes 20–50% to observed multidecadal GPP enhancements in temperate and boreal biomes, with residual variability linked to availability or disturbance. However, some flux tower syntheses report a weakening CFE in recent years, with a global decline in the sensitivity of GPP to CO2 inferred from FLUXNET trends post-2000, potentially due to constraints or deficit stress overriding fertilization benefits. Despite this, baseline evidence from confirms CFE as a dominant driver of historical strengthening, with site-level anomalies in NEE aligning more closely with CO2 anomalies than alternative forcings in controlled attribution studies.

Experimental Validation

Controlled Chamber Experiments

Controlled chamber experiments, typically conducted in sealed growth chambers, greenhouses with CO2 enclosures, or phytotrons, enable precise manipulation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations while controlling variables such as , , , and nutrients to isolate the direct physiological impacts of elevated CO2 on . These setups minimize external influences like or pests, providing baseline evidence for the CO2 fertilization effect primarily through enhanced in the Calvin-Benson cycle and suppression of in C3 plants. In species, which include major crops like , , and soybeans as well as most trees and forbs, elevated CO2 (often 550-700 , roughly double ambient levels) consistently boosts light-saturated net by 30-50%, depending on species and conditions, due to increased efficiency and reduced oxygenase activity. This photosynthetic enhancement translates to increases averaging 25-35% across meta-analyses of chamber studies, with above-ground dry matter rising more than in nutrient-replete conditions, though root:shoot ratios can shift under nutrient limitation. For woody plants, chamber experiments report similar gains, with photosynthetic rates up 40% and total up 20-30% at doubled CO2, alongside improved water-use via partial stomatal closure reducing by 20-40% without proportionally curtailing CO2 uptake. Crop-specific responses in chambers highlight yield potentials: shows 15-25% grain yield increases at 550 , 20-30%, and soybeans 10-20%, often with faster development and higher harvest indices under non-stressed conditions. C4 plants, such as and , exhibit smaller benefits (5-15% biomass gain), mainly under water or light stress where CO2 concentrates at the bundle sheath enhances . However, chamber results can be moderated by interactions; for instance, limitation reduces the fertilization effect by 50% or more, as excess carbohydrates dilute tissue N concentrations by 10-15%. Elevated CO2 also alters , increasing by 10-20% initially but potentially leading to earlier if sinks are saturated. While chambers provide causal evidence for CO2-driven growth enhancements under idealized conditions, methodological artifacts—such as constant CO2 exposure without diurnal fluctuations, elevated humidity, or restricted airflow—may inflate responses compared to open-field validations, with meta-analyses indicating 10-20% higher biomass gains in chambers versus free-air systems. Nonetheless, these experiments underpin the biochemical mechanisms, confirming that CO2 acts as a primary limiter to C3 productivity in current atmospheres.

Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) Studies

Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments expose crops, forests, and natural ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations in open-field conditions, using blowers and tubing to release CO2 without the artifacts of enclosed chambers, such as altered light, humidity, or wind. These studies, initiated in the early , typically target CO2 levels of 475–600 ppm, simulating future projections, and span multiple growing seasons to assess long-term responses. Unlike chamber experiments, FACE minimizes and maintains natural environmental variability, providing more realistic data on CO2 fertilization. Major FACE facilities include the Duke Forest experiment (1996–2005) on loblolly pine in , which demonstrated sustained increases in net primary production (NPP) and accumulation under elevated CO2, with enhanced by 20–30% over a decade, though limited by nutrient availability. SoyFACE in (2001–present) examined soybeans, revealing yield increases of 10–15% from elevated CO2, driven by greater pod set and mass, but moderated by interactions with exposure. RiceFACE and wheat FACE trials in and reported grain yield gains of 8–12% for and similar for under +200 ppm CO2, with higher-yielding cultivars showing up to 35% enhancement due to improved tillering and grain filling. Meta-analyses of FACE data across 186 studies of crops indicate an average 18% yield increase under non-stress conditions with ~200 CO2 elevation, attributed to enhanced and reduced , though responses diminish under or high temperatures, where yield offsets can reach 10–35%. Forest FACE experiments, such as those at , confirmed greater responsiveness in woody plants, with 20–40% boosts in above-ground , but progressive nutrient dilution and constraints limited sustained gains beyond initial years. Overall, FACE evidence supports CO2-driven improvements in water-use efficiency by 20–50% via partial stomatal closure, yet highlights interactions with limitation and pests that cap net benefits in real-world settings. These findings underscore FACE's role in validating observational greening trends while revealing context-dependent limitations not captured in models assuming uniform fertilization.

Key FACE Findings on Crops and Forests

FACE experiments on crops, conducted at sites such as in and rice paddies in , have demonstrated that elevating atmospheric CO2 to approximately 550 ppm typically increases yields of C3 crops by an average of 18% under non-stress conditions, based on a meta-analysis of 186 studies across 18 crop species. This enhancement arises primarily from improved and reduced in C3 plants, with greater responses observed in (up to 25-30% yield gains) compared to cereals like and (10-15%). However, C4 crops such as exhibit smaller or negligible yield increases (around 0-8%), due to their inherent CO2 concentrating mechanisms that minimize even at ambient levels. In forest ecosystems, FACE studies like the Duke Forest experiment with loblolly pine () revealed sustained increases in net primary productivity (NPP) of about 20-25% under elevated CO2 (to 565 ), translating to a 27% greater annual increment (108 g C m⁻² year⁻¹) compared to controls over multiple years. Similarly, the FACE site with sweetgum () showed comparable NPP enhancements of 21.8% when normalized to a 41% CO2 increase, with benefits persisting through limitations via improved carbon allocation to roots and fine litter production. These findings indicate that mature forests respond positively to CO2 fertilization through elevated and belowground carbon investment, though long-term gains may be constrained by availability, as evidenced by reduced effects in N-limited stands. Across both crops and forests, FACE results underscore acclimation challenges: initial photosynthetic stimulation often diminishes over time due to source-sink imbalances or feedbacks, yet overall and accrual remains positive without overriding limitations. Elevated CO2 also consistently improves water-use efficiency by 20-50% in both systems, mitigating stress but not fully offsetting high-temperature reductions in crop . These open-air validations confirm chamber-based predictions while highlighting interactive effects with edaphic factors.

Impacts on Agriculture and Ecosystems

Enhancements in Crop Yields and Biomass

Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments, conducted since the , provide direct evidence of yield enhancements in major exposed to atmospheric CO2 concentrations elevated by 200-550 ppm above ambient levels. These open-field studies, which minimize enclosure artifacts, have shown average yield increases of 12-20% for C3 such as , , and soybeans under non-limiting water and nutrient conditions. For specifically, FACE trials reported an average 14% yield gain, with elite high-yield cultivars achieving up to 35% increases due to improved and to reproductive structures. Wheat and soybean yields in FACE setups similarly exhibit 10-15% enhancements, attributed to extended photosynthetic durations and reduced in pathways, though crops like corn show smaller responses of around 5-10% owing to their inherent CO2-concentrating mechanisms. Observational analyses of field data from 1983-2020 further corroborate these effects, estimating that each 1 rise in atmospheric CO2 has driven boosts of 1% for , 0.6% for s, and 0.4% for corn, accounting for a substantial portion of historical gains beyond agronomic improvements. Biomass production across crops also rises under elevated CO2, with meta-analyses of enclosure and FACE studies indicating 10-15% increases in aboveground , driven by greater and carbon assimilation rates. Vegetable crops demonstrate comparable gains; for example, elevated CO2 at 800-900 μmol mol⁻¹ boosted yields of by 18%, carrots by 19%, and by 17% through accelerated vegetative growth and biomass accumulation. These enhancements stem from the fundamental biochemical response where higher CO2 substrate availability elevates rates in , the primary photosynthetic , leading to net carbon gains that manifest as expanded root, stem, and harvestable .

Improvements in Water Use Efficiency

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations improve plant use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation to loss via , through reduced that conserves while maintaining photosynthetic productivity. This physiological response allows to fix more carbon per unit of transpired, with meta-analyses of woody showing average stomatal reductions of 32% and WUE increases of 34% to 63% depending on CO₂ elevation levels above ambient. In C₃ , which dominate global vegetation, this effect stems from enhanced efficiency and suppressed under higher CO₂, enabling partial stomatal closure without yield penalties. Free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiments provide field-level validation, demonstrating intrinsic WUE gains of 73% in sweetgum () and 77% in loblolly pine () across multiple sites under approximately 550 ppm CO₂. Similarly, in crop systems, FACE trials with potatoes reported WUE enhancements of 70% in one season and over 100% in another, attributed to sustained accumulation amid reduced . For grain legumes like peas, elevated CO₂ slowed soil water depletion by boosting WUE, preserving nodule function and extending growth under limited . These findings align with observations, where WUE rises are driven more by CO₂-induced fertilization than isolated stomatal effects, though spatial variations occur due to type and . Under drought conditions, elevated CO₂ further amplifies WUE benefits by alleviating stress; for instance, it improved leaf status in grasslands without conserving overall, but by optimizing efficiency. Crop-specific meta-analyses confirm gains of 28% in and up to 50% in , enabling stability despite or constraints. Globally, rising CO₂ has contributed to observed WUE increases in , partially offsetting warming-induced demands, as evidenced by flux tower data and modeling calibrated against FACE results. However, these improvements are modulated by interactions with vapor pressure deficit and , with recent studies noting potential plateaus in some biomes due to concurrent limitations.

Effects on Ecosystem Productivity

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations stimulate photosynthesis in C3 plants, which dominate terrestrial ecosystems, leading to increased gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). This CO2 fertilization effect has contributed to a 13.5 ± 3.5% rise in global annual terrestrial photosynthesis from 1981 to 2020, equivalent to an additional 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC sequestered. Observational data from satellites further corroborate this, showing widespread "global greening" where leaf area index has increased by approximately 5-10% over recent decades, with CO2 fertilization accounting for about 70% of the effect. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments in natural ecosystems, such as and grasslands, demonstrate productivity enhancements typically ranging from 10-25%. For instance, meta-analyses of FACE sites report a 21.8% increase in NPP under CO2 enrichment normalized to +41 . These gains are particularly pronounced in water-limited ecosystems, where CO2-induced improvements in water-use efficiency amplify accumulation during favorable conditions. In , which cover about 40% of Earth's land surface, CO2 fertilization has driven vegetation expansion and higher despite rising . Ecosystem-level responses include shifts in community composition favoring productive and greater carbon allocation to roots, enhancing storage in some cases. Long-term at sites like Duke FACE has observed sustained woody biomass increases of 20-30% over a decade under elevated CO2, indicating potential for enduring productivity boosts absent limitations. However, the magnitude of these effects varies by , with tropical forests showing smaller relative gains compared to temperate regions due to baseline high productivity.

Nutritional and Compositional Changes

Alterations in Crop Nutrient Density

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations reduce the concentrations of essential in many crops through mechanisms including carbohydrate dilution, where enhanced increases but uptake lags, and decreased limiting mass-flow delivery of minerals to roots. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) studies across , , , soybeans, and other staples consistently show declines in protein, , iron, and other micronutrients by 5-15% under CO2 levels of 546-586 ppm, with meta-analyses confirming average reductions of 5.9% in protein, 9.6% in , and 8.0% in iron for edible portions. These effects stem from altered carbon-nitrogen balances and suppressed expression of transporters, as observed in controlled and field experiments. While macronutrients like and show variable responses, with some FACE trials reporting increases averaging 23.5% in , , , and magnesium under specific conditions, declines predominate for human health-relevant elements, exacerbating risks of deficiencies when diets rely on these crops. Reduced and antioxidants further compound the nutritional downgrading, independent of yield gains, as nutrient density per caloric unit falls. Genetic variation exists, with certain crop exhibiting resilience to maintain concentrations, suggesting potential for countermeasures. Projections indicate that by 2050, under rising CO2 without interventions, global dietary intakes of and iron from crops could decrease by 3.1-9.7% and 3.8-5.1%, respectively, heightening "hidden hunger" in populations dependent on staples like and . Interactions with and management practices modulate these alterations, but empirical data from multi-year FACE sites underscore the pervasive dilution trend absent enhanced fertilization.

Implications for Food Quality and Human Nutrition

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations reduce the nutritional quality of many staple crops by decreasing the concentrations of essential macronutrients and s, despite increases in overall and . This , observed in free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments and meta-analyses, primarily affects plants such as , , and soybeans, where protein content declines by 5-15% under CO2 levels projected for mid-century (e.g., 550 ). For instance, grains exhibit 6-8% lower protein, while shows reductions in by up to 9.3% and iron by 5.1%. These changes stem from the dilution effect, where enhanced boosts production more than uptake, alongside reduced that limits mineral absorption from soil. Minerals like , iron, and magnesium decrease consistently across studies, with meta-analyses confirming average declines of 5-10% in edible portions of grains and . Some vitamins, such as in , also diminish by 10-30%, exacerbating the issue. In , effects vary, but staples critical to global diets show net losses in nutrient density. For , these alterations pose risks of widespread deficiencies, particularly in regions dependent on plant-based diets lacking diverse animal proteins or supplements. Projections indicate that by 2050, under elevated CO2, dietary supplies of and iron could fall by 3-17% in high-rice-consuming countries like and , potentially affecting over 150 million people with protein-energy or shortfalls. Increased caloric yields may mask the problem in yield-focused , leading to "hidden hunger" where populations consume sufficient calories but inadequate nutrients, contributing to , , and weakened immunity. Empirical data from FACE sites underscore that without interventions like enhanced fertilization or crop breeding for nutrient retention, these nutritional declines could offset gains in food quantity.

Limiting Factors and Interactions

Nutrient and Soil Constraints

The CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth is frequently constrained by the availability of essential , particularly (N) and (P), which limit the capacity for increased production and under elevated CO2 concentrations. In nutrient-limited environments, initial enhancements in net primary productivity (NPP) from CO2 enrichment often diminish over time as plants deplete available resources faster than they can be replenished, a known as progressive nutrient limitation. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments demonstrate that without supplemental fertilization, the stimulatory impact of elevated CO2 on crop yields and forest growth is reduced by up to 50% or more in N-poor soils. Nitrogen limitation is the predominant constraint globally, affecting approximately 65% of types and leading to dampened CO2-driven increases in gross primary productivity (GPP). Long-term observations, such as the 11-year FACE study in a loblolly , revealed that N scarcity progressively curtailed NPP enhancement from 24% initially to near zero by the experiment's end, as foliar N concentrations declined and N cycling failed to keep pace with carbon demands. Similar patterns occur in crops; for instance, in and under FACE conditions, N limitation halved expected yield gains from CO2 elevation, with plants exhibiting reduced photosynthetic capacity due to lower activity tied to N availability. A global analysis of satellite data from 1982 to 2015 further indicates a recent decline in the CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis, attributed in part to widespread N constraints exacerbated by depletion and reduced foliar N trends. Phosphorus limitation plays a significant role in specific , constraining CO2 effects in about 25% of global vegetation, particularly in tropical forests and P-depleted . Studies in tropical regions show that P scarcity weakens the CO2 fertilization impact on the , with elevated CO2 failing to boost growth where P stocks are low, as evidenced by minimal changes in aboveground despite increased fine root production aimed at P . In agricultural contexts, P constraints under elevated CO2 lead to trivial growth enhancements across varying P application rates, underscoring the nutrient's role in limiting metabolic scaling of CO2 benefits. Latitudinal gradients amplify these effects, with stronger N and P limitations in and tropical compared to temperate zones, influencing projections for carbon sinks. Soil properties beyond bulk content, such as , , and microbial activity, further modulate these constraints through influences on cycling and plant- feedbacks. Elevated CO2 can accelerate decomposition in N-limited systems, paradoxically intensifying N drawdown via enhanced microbial demand, as observed in decade-long experiments where N enrichment amplified CO2 stimulation of but depleted available N pools. In nutrient-stressed soils, under CO2 enrichment improves short-term uptake but often fails to sustain long-term gains without external inputs, highlighting the interplay between and the durability of fertilization effects. Overall, these and factors imply that the net terrestrial from CO2 fertilization may be overstated in models neglecting site-specific limitations.

Water Availability and Vapor Pressure Deficit

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations enhance plant water use efficiency (WUE) by reducing , which decreases while sustaining or increasing , thereby alleviating constraints from limited water availability. In Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments across various ecosystems, declined by an average of 22% under CO2 levels elevated by approximately 200 ppm, leading to 20-40% improvements in intrinsic WUE ( per unit ). This physiological response allows plants to maintain productivity under deficits, as demonstrated in and trials where elevated CO2 increased yields by 10-15% during conditions despite unchanged water inputs. However, interactions with vapor pressure deficit (VPD)—the driving force for —increasing due to higher temperatures can partially offset these benefits. Rising VPD, observed to have increased globally by 0.3-0.5 kPa per decade since the , amplifies evaporative demand, potentially negating CO2-induced WUE gains if VPD exceeds 2-3 kPa during heatwaves. In controlled experiments with tree species, elevated CO2 mitigated VPD-driven water stress by 15-25% through coordinated stomatal closure, but under combined high VPD and , net WUE improvements diminished to near zero in some cases. For instance, in a 2020 study of in FACE plots, elevated CO2 buffered VPD effects on canopy conductance during moderate stress but failed to prevent hydraulic failure when VPD peaked above 3 kPa. Empirical data from towers and satellite observations indicate that while CO2 fertilization has contributed to a 10-20% rise in global vegetation WUE since , concurrent VPD increases have reduced terrestrial by 5-10% in arid and semi-arid regions, highlighting regional variability. Models incorporating these dynamics, such as those from the Community Land Model, project that without CO2 effects, VPD-driven water deficits would suppress accumulation by up to 15% more than observed, underscoring the fertilizing role in countering trends. Nonetheless, in water-limited ecosystems like savannas, sustained high VPD may eventually overwhelm CO2 benefits if recharge fails to match heightened area from fertilization.

Synergies and Conflicts with Temperature Changes

Elevated atmospheric CO2 often interacts antagonistically with warming temperatures on crop yields, where temperature-induced heat stress diminishes or negates the fertilization benefits. A meta-regression analysis of experimental data for major staples found that while CO2 elevation yields positive linear responses—such as +4% per 100 µmol mol⁻¹ for maize and rice, and +10% for soybean—warming imposes negative effects of -7.6% per °C for wheat, -9.5% for rice, and -9.5% for maize, ultimately reducing or eliminating net CO2-driven gains under projected climate scenarios. Similarly, Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) simulations indicate that a 2°C temperature rise, accompanying CO2 increases to mid-century levels, could halve yields in crops like soybean and rice despite an 18% CO2 boost under optimal conditions, primarily through accelerated respiration, shortened grain-filling periods, and reproductive heat damage. In combined stress scenarios, these conflicts intensify; for under elevated CO2, warming, and water deficiency, declined by 57% and leaf photosynthesis by 50%, reflecting synergistic negative impacts on and function, though CO2 partially offset reductions in photosynthetic (e.g., +128% for RbcL3). Such arises causally from exceeding photosynthetic optima (typically 20–30°C for crops), increasing maintenance respiration by 10–20% per °C and losses, which elevated CO2 alone suppresses but cannot fully counteract under heat. Synergistic benefits occur in select cases, particularly where CO2 enhances thermotolerance. In hybrids exposed to high temperatures, elevated CO2 ameliorated stress effects on physio-biochemical traits, sustaining growth and yield components better than warming alone, via improved water-use efficiency and reduced oxidative damage. For woody species like Amur linden, combined elevated CO2 (750 µmol mol⁻¹) and +4°C warming boosted aboveground , height, and area significantly (P < 0.001), alongside higher photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency, despite lowered maximum rates—indicating adaptive that amplifies net . These positives stem from CO2-driven canopy cooling through and extended growing seasons in cooler baselines, though they are less pronounced in nutrient-limited or drought-prone systems. Overall, from FACE and controlled trials underscores context-dependency: antagonistic interactions dominate in tropical/subtropical crops vulnerable to heat, while synergies may prevail in temperate forests or with breeding for heat resilience, highlighting the need for species-specific projections beyond isolated CO2 effects.

Controversies and Scientific Debates

Discrepancies Between Models and Observations

Observations from Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments indicate that elevated CO2 levels typically enhance net primary productivity (NPP) by 10-20% in forests and crops at concentrations around 550 ppm, but these gains often diminish over time due to nutrient constraints, particularly and limitations, which are not fully captured in many ecosystem models. For instance, in the FACE experiment with loblolly pines, initial NPP increases under elevated CO2 were sustained but constrained by availability, leading to slower-than-predicted in models lacking dynamic nutrient feedbacks. Global observations reveal a pronounced trend since the , with CO2 fertilization accounting for approximately 70% of the increase in (LAI), yet process-based models simulate weaker or less spatially consistent responses, underestimating the fertilization effect by up to a factor of two when compared to inferred historical gains of 30% since 1900. Conversely, recent analyses (post-2000) show a declining CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on , with observations indicating a stronger —potentially due to nutrient saturation and rising temperatures—than the milder decline projected by models, which may inadequately represent nutrient dynamics or deficit interactions. In phosphorus-limited systems, carbon-phosphorus cycle models generally overestimate CO2-driven carbon sequestration by failing to account for observed stoichiometric imbalances, where experimental data demonstrate reduced phosphorus availability under elevated CO2 hampers predicted productivity gains. These model-observation gaps highlight limitations in parameterizing feedbacks like nutrient retranslocation and microbial competition, with FACE syntheses underscoring that unfertilized field conditions yield lower CFE magnitudes (e.g., 12% for C3 crops) than model assumptions of unconstrained growth. Addressing such discrepancies requires integrating empirical nutrient constraints into Earth system models to better align simulations with decadal-scale observations.

Debates on Long-Term Sustainability

Long-term sustainability of the CO2 fertilization effect remains debated, with from Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments indicating initial boosts in plant productivity that often diminish due to photosynthetic acclimation and resource constraints. In FACE studies spanning up to two decades, elevated CO2 consistently increased net in forests and crops, yet this was accompanied by downregulation of photosynthetic capacity, evidenced by reductions in maximum rate (Vcmax) by 10-20% after sustained exposure. For instance, the FACE experiment on loblolly forests showed sustained woody biomass accumulation under elevated CO2 from 1996 to 2010, but leaf-level acclimated, limiting further gains without additional inputs. Nutrient limitations, particularly and , emerge as primary barriers to prolonged benefits, as faster growth under elevated CO2 dilutes tissue nutrient concentrations and depletes reserves. observations and modeling from 1982 to 2015 reveal a global decline in the CO2 fertilization effect on , attributed to falling foliar levels and water availability, with the effect halving in some regions. In cropland FACE trials, yields increased by 14-35% under +200 CO2 over multiple seasons, but high-yield cultivars showed greater acclimation, suggesting without fertilization to offset nutrient drawdown. Critics argue this implies unsustainability in nutrient-poor ecosystems, where CO2-driven growth could eventually stall, as projected in phosphorus-limited tropical forests. Proponents of sustained effects highlight synergies with improved water-use efficiency, which may extend benefits in semi-arid areas, though interactions with warming and complicate outcomes. Long-term FACE data on soybeans and indicate that while acclimation reduces photosynthetic rates by 10-15%, overall and gains persist for 5-10 years under managed conditions, challenging claims of rapid saturation. However, unfertilized systems exhibit stronger downregulation, with leaf nitrogen dropping 5-10% per decade of exposure, raising concerns over ecosystem-level efficacy. These findings underscore that hinges on site-specific factors, with empirical FACE results tempering model-based optimism for indefinite .

Role in Mitigating or Exacerbating Climate Effects

The CO2 fertilization effect primarily mitigates climate change by enhancing terrestrial carbon sequestration, as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations stimulate photosynthesis, leading to increased net primary productivity and biomass accumulation across ecosystems. Empirical data from global eddy covariance flux towers, spanning diverse biomes, demonstrate a robust fertilization response, with CO2 responsible for approximately 70% of the observed increase in gross primary production over recent decades. This effect has contributed to a detectable terrestrial carbon sink, absorbing an estimated 25-30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, thereby slowing the rate of atmospheric CO2 buildup and associated radiative forcing. Satellite observations further confirm widespread greening, particularly in drylands, where CO2-driven enhancements in water-use efficiency have expanded vegetation cover and bolstered carbon uptake under aridifying conditions. However, interactions with concurrent climate stressors can limit or reverse this mitigating role, potentially exacerbating net warming. Recent analyses indicate a global decline in the fertilization effect's potency since the , with land ecosystems exhibiting reduced CO2 uptake —absorbing roughly 7% less per unit of —due to rising temperatures, deficits, and constraints that diminish photosynthetic capacity over time. In northern mid-to-high latitudes, the initial positive indirect effects of elevated CO2 on carbon uptake have transitioned to negative since around 2000, as warming-induced and override gains, leading to diminished sink strength. Models incorporating these dynamics project that without replenishment, the fertilization-driven carbon storage increase could be offset by climate feedbacks, such as enhanced decomposition, resulting in a net positive contribution to atmospheric CO2 under high-emission scenarios. Furthermore, while the effect improves plant resilience to in isolation, amplified heatwaves and altered patterns under can negate these benefits, fostering shifts—such as toward less efficient compositions—that reduce long-term potential and may indirectly exacerbate warming through diminished regulation or increased vulnerability in fertilized forests. Observations from free-air CO2 enrichment experiments underscore that sustained exposure leads to acclimation, where photosynthetic gains plateau, highlighting the transient nature of absent compensatory factors like deposition. Overall, the net impact hinges on the balance between fertilization-enhanced sinks and overriding biophysical feedbacks, with empirical trends suggesting diminishing returns as global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C.

Projections and Future Implications

Model-Based Forecasts

Earth system models (ESMs) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forecast that the CO2 fertilization effect will enhance terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) and accumulation through the , driven by increased efficiency and stomatal conductance reduction in the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model framework commonly implemented in these simulations. Multi-model ensembles from CMIP6 project that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations could contribute 20-50% to global GPP increases by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 scenarios, with the fertilization effect dominating early-century gains before and feedbacks modulate responses. However, DGVMs incorporating dynamics estimate a 25-30% lower land carbon storage response to CO2 fertilization compared to unconstrained models, highlighting limitations as a key damper on projected benefits. For agricultural systems, process-based crop models calibrated with free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments forecast yield enhancements primarily for crops, with and projections showing 10-20% increases from CO2 alone by mid-century under elevated concentrations of 550 ppm. , a crop, exhibits smaller modeled gains of 0-10% due to saturation of the CO2-concentrating mechanism, though water-use efficiency improvements benefit drought-prone regions. Ensemble simulations indicate that CO2 fertilization offsets 20-50% of yield losses from concurrent warming and ozone exposure in high-emission pathways, potentially stabilizing global production for staples like soybeans and . Uncertainties in these forecasts stem from inter-model variability in parameterizing factors (sensitivity of to CO2) and from divergences with observational data, where satellite-derived trends suggest weaker historical fertilization than ESMs imply, possibly indicating over-optimistic future projections without adjustments for declining marginal returns. Constraining models with flux data yields higher inferred values (up to 0.47% GPP increase per CO2), projecting sustained but regionally heterogeneous enhancements, strongest in nutrient-replete mid-latitudes. Overall, while models consistently predict positive direct effects, integrated assessments under SSP5-8.5 foresee net terrestrial carbon uptake amplification by 2-5 PgC/year from fertilization by 2100, tempered by land-use change and warming interactions.

Potential Under Varied Climate Scenarios

The magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on global vegetation productivity is projected to diminish under higher warming scenarios due to compounding stresses from elevated temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. In low-emissions pathways such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, which limit global warming to approximately 1.5°C by 2100, models indicate that CFE could enhance net primary productivity (NPP) by 10-20% through improved water-use efficiency and photosynthetic rates, with minimal offsetting from heat stress. Conversely, under high-emissions SSP 5-8.5 scenarios projecting 4-5°C warming, temperature-induced respiration increases and drought frequency are expected to reduce CFE benefits by 30-50%, potentially leading to net declines in vegetation carbon uptake in tropical and temperate regions after mid-century. Crop-specific responses further highlight scenario-dependent outcomes. For C3 crops like and , CFE is forecasted to partially offset yield losses from exposure and warming in (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emissions, ~2.5°C warming), boosting yields by up to 15% relative to no-CFE simulations, but this amelioration weakens under RCP 8.5 where heat extremes negate gains, resulting in 5-10% net yield reductions. C4 crops such as exhibit limited CFE responsiveness inherently, with projections showing near-total negation of any modest gains under warming above 2°C due to heightened deficits and evapotranspiration demands. These interactions underscore that while CFE provides a temporary buffer in milder scenarios, its efficacy erodes in hotter, drier futures, as evidenced by dynamic global vegetation models incorporating leaf-to-canopy scaling. Regional variations amplify these global trends. In semi-arid , which cover 40% of 's land surface, SSP-based projections suggest sustained from CFE through enhanced and reduced losses, even under 3°C warming, potentially increasing by 20-30% by 2100. However, and biomes face heightened risks in high-warming scenarios, where limitations and disturbances could cap CFE at 5-10% NPP gains before shifting to carbon source dynamics post-2050. Empirical calibrations of Earth system models against satellite-derived trends confirm that recent observational declines in CFE sensitivity—attributed to concurrent warming—align with projections for intensified interactions, emphasizing the need for scenario-specific parameterizations beyond static beta factors.