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Winter wheat

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a cool-season grass variety of that is sown in the autumn, vernalizes through exposure to prolonged temperatures during dormancy over winter, and is harvested in or . This growth habit distinguishes it from spring wheat, which is planted in the and lacks the same requirement for flowering, allowing winter wheat to establish and tillers before winter for better yield potential in temperate regions. As the predominant type of wheat cultivated globally, winter wheat accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. production, with major classes including hard red winter (used primarily for and high-gluten flours), soft red winter (for pastries and crackers), and white winter varieties. It thrives in well-drained, moderately fertile soils with annual precipitation ranging from 10 to 20 inches or more, often benefiting from snow cover for winter protection and deep systems that access subsoil . Key agronomic traits selected in modern varieties include winter hardiness (rated fair to excellent), straw strength to resist lodging, and resistance to diseases like Fusarium head blight, enabling reliable yields in regions such as the U.S. , , and Eastern areas. Winter wheat serves as a grain worldwide, providing essential carbohydrates, proteins, and micronutrients, and is integral to rotations with crops like corn and soybeans to enhance , suppress weeds, and capture residual nutrients. In the U.S., production reached an estimated 1.97 billion bushels from 38.5 million in the 2024/25 marketing year, though planted has declined by about 42 million since 1981 due to shifts toward other crops and improved yields per . Its versatility supports diverse end uses, from milling into for baked goods to and cover cropping, underscoring its economic and environmental significance in .

Biology and Characteristics

Definition and Classification

Winter wheat, scientifically classified as Triticum aestivum L., is a hexaploid belonging to the family, commonly known as the grass family. This annual grass is one of the most widely cultivated crops globally, characterized by its 42 chromosomes arranged in three genomes (A, B, and D), which distinguish it from diploid or tetraploid wheat relatives. As a member of the Triticum genus, winter wheat exhibits traits typical of cool-season grasses, including a and hollow stems that support its characteristic spike . The primary distinction between winter wheat and spring wheat lies in their growth habits and environmental requirements. Winter wheat is sown in the autumn, allowing it to establish roots and tillers before winter, undergo —a period of exposure necessary to promote flowering—and resume growth in spring for harvest in late spring or early summer. In contrast, spring wheat is planted in early spring and completes its cycle without a prolonged period, making winter wheat particularly suited to temperate regions where it can overwinter successfully. This requirement, typically involving 4 to 8 weeks of temperatures below 48°F (9°C), ensures reproductive development only after winter . Key physiological traits of winter wheat include its cold hardiness, which develops through acclimation processes in , enabling survival of subfreezing temperatures down to about -10°F (-23°C), depending on and conditions. During the overwintering , the engages in tillering—the of secondary shoots from the base—which begins in autumn and may continue into early , contributing to higher density and potential yield. As temperatures rise in , winter wheat transitions to the jointing stage, where internodes elongate rapidly, pushing the growing point above the soil surface and marking the onset of stem extension. Winter wheat is further classified into subtypes based on kernel , color, and end-use , which influence milling and baking properties. features high protein content (11-15%) and strong , ideal for production; soft red winter wheat has lower protein (8-11%) and softer kernels suited for pastries and cookies; while hard white winter wheat offers similar to hard red but with a milder , used in Asian noodles and whole wheat products. These classifications, determined by factors like growing region and breeding, ensure targeted applications in .

Growth Cycle and Physiology

Winter wheat exhibits a distinct annual growth cycle adapted to temperate climates, where are sown in the autumn to allow before winter . typically occurs within 5 to 10 days after planting, provided temperatures are between 4°C and 15°C, with the and seminal emerging first, followed by the pushing through the surface. During the initial fall period, the progresses through tillering, where side shoots develop from the base of the , and crown establish a robust system for anchorage and absorption; this stage accumulates 5-15% of the 's total . As temperatures drop, growth slows, and the enters winter , resuming active development in spring with stem elongation (jointing), where the first becomes visible above the , marking the transition to rapid vegetative growth. Vernalization is a critical physiological requirement for winter wheat, involving prolonged exposure to low, non-freezing temperatures (typically 0-10°C) for 4-8 weeks to induce flowering competence and prevent premature heading. This process epigenetically silences the VRN2 gene while activating the VRN1 floral promoter, ensuring that reproductive development aligns with conditions rather than occurring in the fall. Without sufficient , remain vegetative and fail to produce seed heads. In , following , the undergoes jointing (Feekes 6), where internodes elongate, followed by heading (Feekes 10), when the spike emerges from the leaf sheath, and grain filling (Feekes 11), where kernels develop and accumulate dry matter, culminating in physiological maturity at around 15% grain moisture. These stages typically span from autumn planting to summer harvest, with the extended timeline enabling greater biomass accumulation compared to . Overwintering survival relies on adaptive mechanisms such as cold acclimation (or hardening), where exposure to low positive temperatures (around 2°C for up to 8 weeks) in autumn triggers the synthesis of cryoprotective compounds, including glycoproteins that inhibit growth and recrystallization in the . hardening protects the meristematic tissues at the base, allowing the crown to tolerate temperatures as low as -23°C to -24°C with adequate cover for insulation, while —induced partly by —halts aboveground growth to conserve resources during . The accumulation of these proteins, regulated by genes on , is essential for preventing cellular and damage in intercellular spaces. Deacclimation in early , driven by warming temperatures, reverses these protections, making timely avoidance crucial. The extended growth period of winter wheat enhances , particularly during the tillering and jointing phases, where nitrate-based supports higher rates of CO₂ (up to 20-25 μmol m⁻² s⁻¹) and compared to forms, optimizing carbon capture over the full season. Nutrient uptake patterns show minimal activity during winter , with 70-90% of total absorbed rapidly from autumn tillering through in late spring, driven by and translocation to developing heads; uptake follows a similar trajectory but peaks earlier with supply. This phased uptake, coupled with improved content under balanced fertilization, contributes to overall yield potential by sustaining prolonged green tissue duration and efficient resource remobilization during grain filling.

History and Development

Origins and Domestication

Winter wheat traces its evolutionary origins to the in the modern-day , where wild emmer wheat (Triticum dicoccoides), its primary progenitor, naturally grew in the region's diverse habitats. This wild ancestor, a tetraploid grass, was first gathered by prehistoric hunter-gatherers as early as 19,000 years before present at sites like Ohalo II in , but systematic and began around 10,000 BCE during the period. The 's favorable climate and soil conditions facilitated the transition from foraging to farming, marking wheat as one of the foundational crops of early . The process unfolded gradually over approximately 1,000 years in farming communities of the and southeast , involving human selection for advantageous traits that distinguished cultivated varieties from their wild counterparts. Key genetic changes included leading to non-shattering rachises—preventing from dispersing naturally upon maturity—and larger sizes, with domesticated exhibiting about 1.9 times the seed mass of wild forms. These adaptations, controlled by specific genes such as Br1 and Br2 for rachis toughness and the Q gene for free-threshing, improved efficiency and , enabling reliable food production for growing settlements. The winter growth habit of bread wheat, requiring for flowering, likely originated from the D genome contributed by Aegilops tauschii, a wild grass from colder northern regions of , enabling adaptation to temperate climates. Archaeological evidence underscores the early cultivation of domesticated wheat forms at sites like in central , a settlement dating to around 6400–6200 BCE. Excavations there yielded carbonized grains and from approximately 8,400-year-old samples, revealing not only and einkorn but also transitional hexaploid wheats akin to modern bread wheat (Triticum aestivum), indicating advanced hybridization and selection processes. This site highlights 's pivotal role in the westward dissemination of wheat agriculture from the core. By 3000 BCE, domesticated had spread widely via ancient trade routes and migrations, reaching through the —culminating in the —and extending eastward into and beyond, as evidenced by grains found in the dating to around 3200 BCE. These exchanges along pre-Silk Road networks facilitated cultural and agricultural adaptations across continents, laying the groundwork for wheat's global cultivation.

Modern Breeding and Varieties

Modern breeding of winter wheat has focused on hybridization and selection to enhance key traits such as yield potential, disease resistance, winter hardiness, and end-use quality for baking, building on advancements from the in the . The introduction of semi-dwarf varieties reduced and improved responsiveness to fertilizers, leading to significant yield increases; for instance, in hard red winter wheat has targeted protein concentration and resistance to pre-harvest alongside higher grain output. These efforts involved crossing elite lines with diverse to incorporate genes for head blight resistance and stripe rust tolerance, resulting in varieties that maintain baking quality metrics like strength while boosting overall productivity. A pivotal influence in U.S. hard red winter wheat came from the Japanese semi-dwarf 'Norin 10', introduced in the 1940s and used by breeders like Vogel at to develop high-yielding varieties such as Gaines and Nugaines. This dwarfing gene, Rht-B1b, has been incorporated into over 70% of modern commercial wheat varieties worldwide, enabling shorter stature and higher yields under intensive management. In , soft winter wheat types like 'Claire', released in the UK in the early 2000s, exemplify selection for soft milling quality suitable for biscuits and cookies, combined with strong resistance to yellow rust and septoria tritici blotch, achieving yields competitive in temperate regions. Genetic engineering milestones in winter wheat emerged in the late and , with early field trials of glyphosate-tolerant varieties conducted by from 1998 to 2005 to enable post-emergence without crop damage. These trials demonstrated effective tolerance in wheat lines, though commercialization was halted due to market and regulatory concerns; subsequent research has explored stacked traits for and resistance using transgenic approaches. Breeding organizations play a central role in developing climate-resilient winter wheat strains, with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) leading through its International Winter Wheat Improvement Program (IWWIP), which generates elite lines adapted to rainfed conditions in Central and by incorporating traits for heat and via pre-breeding with wild relatives. programs, such as those at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and European institutions like , collaborate to select for resilience against emerging threats like fusarium head blight, distributing that supports global yield stability under variable climates.

Cultivation Practices

Planting and Soil Requirements

Winter wheat is sown in late summer to early fall in the to enable and tillering before winter sets in, typically from September to October depending on and . This window allows the crop to establish sufficiently to withstand , with regional variations such as September 20 to October 15 in or September 10 to October 10 in . Planting too late increases risks of poor and winterkill, while early may lead to excessive vegetative growth vulnerable to . The crop thrives in well-drained loamy soils with a range of 6.0 to 7.5, where nutrient availability is optimal and acidity-related issues like are minimized. High content, ideally 1 to 5 percent, supports moisture retention and , enhancing tillering and yield potential. Winter wheat tolerates clay soils to some extent but performs poorly in waterlogged conditions, necessitating good to prevent and heaving during freeze-thaw cycles. Seeding rates typically range from 100 to 150 kg per to achieve a target of 900,000 to 1.5 million plants per , adjusted upward for dry soils or delayed planting to compensate for lower . Row spacing of 15 to 20 cm promotes even canopy coverage and efficient resource use, with placed at a depth of 1 to 1.5 inches to balance emergence speed and winter hardiness. Fertilizer applications, especially , are guided by tests to match needs and avoid excesses that promote or environmental runoff. Fall is limited to 10 to 20 pounds per at planting to support initial establishment without excessive top growth, while the bulk—often 40 to 70 pounds per total—is applied in during tillering for fill. and requirements are also assessed pre-planting to maintain levels conducive to robust and .

Harvesting and Yield Management

Harvesting of winter wheat is timed to coincide with the hard dough stage of development, when approximately 60% of the grains in the field have reached this maturity, ensuring optimal yield and quality while minimizing losses from shattering or . This stage occurs when kernels are firm but not fully dry, with moisture content typically between 30% and 40%, and harvest generally takes place from to early summer, such as to in temperate regions like the . Delaying beyond this point risks or bird , while early harvest can lead to higher moisture levels and increased drying costs. Mechanical harvesting is the predominant method for winter wheat, primarily using combine harvesters that perform cutting, , and in a single pass. Two main approaches are employed: straight cutting, where the standing is directly harvested, suitable for uniform ripening fields with low risk; and swathing (or windrowing), where the is cut and laid in rows to dry further before combining, which is preferred in regions with uneven maturity or high to accelerate and reduce green material intake. Combine settings are adjusted to target a grain moisture content of 14-18% at , balancing machine efficiency with minimal damage; higher moisture increases the risk of incomplete or , while lower levels heighten shattering losses. Yield management during harvest focuses on practices that maximize grain recovery and quality, with global average yields for winter wheat typically ranging from 3 to 4 tons per hectare, heavily influenced by varietal selection, soil fertility, and timely harvest execution. For instance, high-yielding varieties combined with precise moisture monitoring can boost outputs by 10-20% in optimal conditions, though factors like regional climate variability often limit averages in rainfed systems. Effective strategies include scouting fields for maturity uniformity and using desiccants if needed to synchronize ripening, thereby reducing harvest losses to below 2%. Post-harvest handling begins immediately after combining to preserve grain viability, with drying to a safe storage moisture of 13% or less essential to prevent spoilage from fungal growth or insect infestation. Aeration systems in bins maintain even drying, targeting this level within days of harvest depending on initial moisture and ambient conditions; for example, wheat entering storage at 18% requires forced-air drying to reach 13% for long-term holding. Proper cleaning to remove dockage further enhances market value and reduces storage risks.

Agricultural Benefits and Uses

Crop Rotation and Soil Health Advantages

Winter wheat plays a key role in crop rotations, particularly when planted following soybeans or corn, where it helps reduce soil erosion by providing protective residue cover that minimizes raindrop impact and wind detachment. This residue, combined with the crop's fibrous root system, also breaks pest and weed cycles that build up in continuous corn-soybean systems, disrupting pathogen and insect life stages without relying heavily on chemical interventions. Furthermore, the deep roots of winter wheat, extending beyond the topsoil, enhance soil structure by penetrating compacted layers, increasing aggregate stability, and promoting subsoil aeration. When integrated into rotations with legumes such as soybeans or , winter wheat benefits from residual fixed by these predecessors, allowing it to scavenge and utilize available more efficiently. This can reduce the need for synthetic applications by 20-30 pounds per acre, equivalent to a 20-30% savings depending on baseline rates, thereby lowering input costs and potential nutrient runoff. Incorporating winter wheat into rotations boosts key indicators, including a significant increase in content—often by 1-2 percentage points over time in temperate systems—and heightened microbial activity due to enhanced carbon inputs from root exudates and residues. These changes foster greater cycling and water retention, contributing to long-term soil resilience. Economically, these agronomic gains translate to improved yields in subsequent crops; for instance, corn following winter wheat in rotation typically sees a 10% or greater yield increase compared to continuous corn, driven by better conditions and reduced pressure.

Food, Feed, and Industrial Applications

Winter wheat serves as a key in production, primarily through milling into . Hard red winter wheat, characterized by its high content from elevated protein levels, is milled into strong flours ideal for and all-purpose , enabling robust development and high-volume loaves. In contrast, soft red winter wheat, with lower protein, produces tender flours suited for pastries, cakes, and cookies, where a delicate is desired. Nutritionally, winter wheat grain typically contains 12-15% protein, supporting muscle repair and growth, along with such as , , and , which aid in energy metabolism. In applications, winter provides a valuable source of carbohydrates, with its high content delivering energy for growth and production. The grain's good digestibility, particularly when processed like steam-rolling to control breakdown, enhances nutrient utilization in ruminants and . Approximately 9% of U.S. , including significant portions of soft red winter varieties, is directed toward domestic , seed, and residual uses, supplementing diets in regions with abundant production. Industrial uses of winter wheat leverage its starch and protein components for non-food products. In biofuel production, the grain is fermented to yield about 400 liters of ethanol per metric ton, offering a renewable energy source comparable to corn-based processes. Additionally, extracted wheat starch finds application in adhesives for packaging and woodworking, as well as in paper manufacturing for sizing and coating to improve strength and printability. Quality grading of winter wheat in the U.S. follows federal standards to ensure suitability for these applications, with test weight serving as a primary indicator of density and condition; a minimum of 58 pounds per is required for U.S. No. 1 grades across major classes like hard red and soft red winter. Protein content, while not a formal grading factor, is contractually specified, typically ranging from 11-14% for milling and feed markets, influencing end-use value—higher levels for flours and lower for pastries or . Modern breeding has optimized varieties for these targeted protein profiles.

Global Production and Regional Variations

Major Producing Regions

China leads global winter wheat production, harvesting approximately 140 million metric tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, accounting for nearly all of its total output and about 18 percent of the world's wheat supply; this production is concentrated in the , where intensive systems enable high yields in a double-cropping with summer . The follows as a key producer with 122 million metric tons of wheat, predominantly winter varieties adapted to temperate conditions, spearheaded by (36 million tons) and (22 million tons), where rain-fed and irrigated practices support consistent outputs across diverse soils. contributes around 82 million metric tons, mainly winter wheat grown under rain-fed dryland systems in its fertile black soil regions, benefiting from cold-hardy cultivars that endure severe winters. produced 23.4 million metric tons, mainly winter wheat from its fertile areas using rain-fed methods, though impacted by geopolitical factors. Although ranks among the top wheat producers overall with 113 million metric tons, its focus remains on spring wheat, limiting its role in winter wheat patterns. In contrast to irrigated dominance in China's , winter wheat in regions like the steppes and EU heartlands often relies on similar to practices in the U.S. , emphasizing drought-tolerant varieties and precise sowing timing to capture winter moisture. Global production for 2024/25 totaled 800.9 million metric tons, with winter wheat comprising about 70 percent, or roughly 560 million metric tons, reflecting steady growth amid varying regional yields. Trade dynamics feature the , , and as primary exporters, supplying over half of international wheat flows, while Middle Eastern nations like and drive imports, purchasing tens of millions of tons annually to supplement local shortages.

Production in the United States

Winter wheat production in the United States is concentrated in the region, particularly the Hard Red Winter wheat belt encompassing , , and , which together account for a substantial share of national output. Kansas leads as the top producer, followed by Oklahoma and Texas, with these states benefiting from suitable semi-arid climates and extensive cropland. In 2025, U.S. winter wheat production totaled 1.402 billion bushels, equivalent to approximately 42 million short tons, marking a 4% increase from the previous year due to improved yields. The cultivation of winter wheat in the U.S. traces back to the , when early introduced varieties such as Mediterranean and wheat in the 1800s, followed by the widespread adoption of Turkey Red hard red winter wheat in the 1870s, which proved resilient to the Plains' harsh conditions. The disaster of the 1930s, characterized by severe and wind erosion from intensive in continuous wheat systems, devastated production and led to significant adaptations; in response, federal initiatives promoted conservation , culminating in the development and adoption of no-till practices by the mid-20th century to preserve and moisture. U.S. winter wheat farming is heavily influenced by federal policies, including USDA subsidies through the Farm Bill's commodity programs and extensive coverage via the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, which indemnified over 80% of planted wheat acreage in recent years to mitigate risks from variability and price fluctuations. These supports enable operations on larger scales, with average wheat farm sizes in key producing states ranging from 500 to over 1,000 acres, reflecting consolidation trends in the . The market value of U.S. winter production reached approximately $7.8 billion in 2025, driven by an average farm price of $5.55 per , underscoring its economic importance to rural economies. Roughly 42% of total U.S. production, including a significant portion of winter wheat, is exported annually, primarily to markets in and , bolstering the sector's global competitiveness.

Challenges and Environmental Impacts

Pests, Diseases, and Management

Winter wheat faces significant threats from various pests and diseases that can compromise yield and grain quality. Among the primary insect pests are the (Mayetiola destructor) and several species, which inflict damage through direct feeding and pathogen transmission. The 's larvae bore into wheat stems, disrupting nutrient transport and causing stunting, , or plant death, particularly in fall-planted fields where overlapping generations exacerbate infestations. Scouting for involves examining plants in the fall and spring for characteristic "flaxseed" puparia at the base of stems or clusters of stunted, bluish-green tillers, with monitoring intensified after the regional fly-free planting date to avoid peak adult activity. , such as the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi) and greenbug (Schizaphis graminum), feed on sap, weakening plants and vectoring viruses like barley yellow dwarf virus, which can reduce yields by stressing seedlings and promoting secondary infections such as . Effective scouting for entails weekly stem counts during tillering through boot stage, treating when populations exceed thresholds of 25 greenbugs or 50 English grain aphids per stem to prevent economic damage. Key fungal diseases affecting winter wheat include Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused primarily by Fusarium graminearum, and the rust complex comprising (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici), (P. triticina), and (P. striiformis f. sp. tritici). FHB epidemiology is driven by wind-dispersed ascospores from infected crop residues, with infections favoring warm (20–30°C), humid conditions during ; prolonged wetness post-flowering facilitates kernel colonization and mycotoxin accumulation, such as deoxynivalenol (DON), which renders grain unsuitable for at levels exceeding 1 ppm and for certain animal feeds at higher levels (e.g., 5 ppm for ruminants). , the most damaging in cooler climates, overwinters on volunteer wheat or spreads from southern regions via urediniospores, producing yellow pustules on leaves and glumes that reduce and by up to 50% in susceptible varieties under favorable cool, moist spring conditions. Leaf and s follow similar wind-aided dispersal patterns, with leaf rust causing orange pustules on foliage during mid-season and stem rust producing reddish-brown lesions on stems that weaken culms and promote ; both thrive in moderate temperatures (15–25°C) with alternating wet-dry cycles. Resistant varieties, such as those incorporating the Fhb1 QTL from 'Sumai 3' for FHB or Yr genes for stripe rust, provide durable protection through reduced and toxin spread, with breeding programs emphasizing to stack multiple loci. Integrated pest management (IPM) strategies form the cornerstone of controlling these threats in winter wheat, combining cultural, chemical, and biological tactics to minimize inputs while sustaining yields. Crop rotation with non-hosts like corn or soybeans disrupts and disease cycles by reducing overwintering inoculum for pupae and FHB residues, potentially lowering disease incidence by 50% or more when intervals exceed two years. Fungicides, particularly triazole-based products like (e.g., in Prosaro), are applied at for FHB to suppress DON by up to 45% or during flag leaf emergence for rusts, with efficacy enhanced by timely and weather-based forecasting models. Biological controls include natural enemies such as parasitic wasps (Homoporus destructor) that parasitize up to 80% of larvae and predatory insects like lady beetles for , while entomopathogenic nematodes (e.g., Steinernema .) target soil-dwelling stages in some systems, though their adoption remains limited compared to chemical options. Without effective , pests and diseases can substantial economic losses in winter wheat , with estimates indicating % yield from diseases alone and combined biotic stresses accounting for 21.5% (range 10.1–28.1%) primary losses in major growing regions. , assessments from 2018–2021 attribute approximately 560 million bushels of wheat losses to s (average ~140 million annually), with 2024 estimates indicating diseases reduced harvested yields by 8.3%; combined and losses contribute to billions in potential revenue shortfalls, underscoring the value of IPM. Emerging concerns include increased risks from diseases like wheat blast in new regions due to .

Effects of Climate Change

Rising temperatures associated with are shortening the vernalization window for winter wheat, as the crop requires 6–10 weeks of exposure to temperatures between 0°C and 7°C to transition from vegetative to reproductive growth; warmer winters reduce this chilling accumulation, potentially delaying and compromising potential. Heat stress during the grain-filling stage further exacerbates losses, with studies indicating declines of 3.4–5.5% per 1°C increase in spring temperatures, depending on cultivar advancement. In regions like , this sensitivity has made winter wheat yields less resilient to high temperatures over recent decades. Changes in patterns are introducing greater variability in winter wheat , with increased frequency in the U.S. projected to reduce yields through water deficits during key growth phases. In , southern areas face up to 49% yield reductions by 2050 due to erratic rainfall and under high-emission scenarios, while northern regions may see modest gains of 5–16% from elevated ; however, overall yield uncertainty is estimated at ±15%, with flooding risks from intense rainfall events adding to regional vulnerabilities. These shifts could amplify interannual yield variability by up to 20% globally by mid-century, driven by combined temperature and extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels offer a potential fertilization effect, enhancing and water-use efficiency to boost winter wheat yields by 22–26% at concentrations around 600 ppm, primarily through increased grain number. However, this benefit is often offset by concurrent water limitations and rising temperatures, which can negate gains in drought-prone areas, limiting net increases to 10–15% under balanced scenarios. To counter these impacts, adaptation strategies include advancing planting dates by 1–2 weeks (or up to 30 days in some models) to align growth cycles with cooler periods and reduce exposure during grain fill, potentially recovering 4–10% of projected yield losses in rainfed Mediterranean systems. heat-tolerant varieties, particularly those with early flowering traits (20–30% earliness), can further mitigate reductions by 20–38%, minimizing and stress during sensitive reproductive stages. These approaches, when combined, enhance resilience in major producing regions facing accelerated warming.

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