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Eric Kaufmann

Eric Peter Kaufmann (born 11 May 1970) is a Canadian political scientist specializing in , ethnic politics, , , and cultural change. Born in and raised in , he holds a from the and advanced degrees from the London School of Economics. Kaufmann serves as Professor of at the , where he directs the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, and is an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Previously at Birkbeck College, , his research employs demographic data and historical patterns to analyze and societal shifts, often challenging dominant academic assumptions about and secular decline. His key publications include Whiteshift: Populism, and the Future of White Majorities (2018), which uses to explore responses to rapid demographic transformation, and The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Excess (2024), critiquing the institutional entrenchment of left-wing cultural orthodoxy. Kaufmann's arguments, emphasizing causal mechanisms in over ideological priors, have garnered both acclaim for intellectual rigor and controversy for confronting taboos on group interests and ideological capture in elite institutions.

Early Life and Education

Upbringing and Family Background

Eric Kaufmann was born in to a father of Czech-Jewish descent, with his paternal grandfather hailing from in what is now the , and a mother described as a . His mixed ancestry includes one-quarter and one-quarter heritage, reflecting a diverse familial background that spans multiple continents and ethnicities. Kaufmann spent his early childhood primarily in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, where he was raised, but frequently traveled between Canada and Japan due to his father's diplomatic work. This peripatetic lifestyle, involving immersion in both North American and East Asian environments over several years—including an extended period in Tokyo—exposed him to stark cultural contrasts from a young age. The experience of navigating these disparate settings during his formative years fostered Kaufmann's enduring interest in identity formation, ethnic boundaries, and the psychological impacts of multiculturalism, themes that would later permeate his academic research.

Academic Training and Early Influences

Kaufmann completed his Bachelor of Arts degree at the University of Western Ontario in London, Ontario, Canada, from September 1988 to April 1991. Following a period in Canada, he pursued graduate studies in the United Kingdom, earning a Master of Science from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) between September 1993 and September 1994. He continued at LSE for his Doctor of Philosophy, awarded in November 1998 after commencing in September 1994, with his doctoral research focusing on political and sociological dimensions of ethnic and , laying the groundwork for his later work in . LSE's interdisciplinary environment in and during the 1990s, emphasizing empirical analysis of institutions and identities, shaped Kaufmann's methodological approach, which integrates quantitative demographic data with qualitative historical case studies. While specific doctoral supervisors are not publicly detailed in available records, his training at LSE exposed him to rigorous social scientific traditions that prioritized causal mechanisms in cultural and political change over ideological priors. Early academic influences appear rooted in Kaufmann's transition from Canadian undergraduate education to the analytically oriented graduate programs at LSE, where he developed an interest in secularization, ethnic persistence, and the interplay of religion and politics—themes central to his subsequent publications. This period marked his shift toward heterodox inquiries into demographic trends and cultural sacralization, diverging from prevailing progressive orthodoxies in academia by privileging data-driven critiques of multiculturalism and identity politics.

Academic Career

Initial Appointments and Research Roles

Kaufmann's initial academic appointment following his PhD from the London School of Economics was as Lecturer in at the , a position he held from February 1999 to September 2003. In this role, he taught courses in and contributed to departmental research on political institutions and ethnic dynamics, laying the groundwork for his later work in . In October 2003, Kaufmann transitioned to Birkbeck College, University of London, as Lecturer in and , serving in that capacity until his promotion to Reader in 2010. During his early years at Birkbeck, he expanded his research portfolio to include analyses of , ethnic identity, and demographic shifts, producing peer-reviewed articles and book chapters on topics such as the political implications of religious and ethnic diversity in Western societies. Concurrently with these lecturing positions, Kaufmann held research fellowships that supported his independent scholarly work, including a fellowship at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, where he focused on and . These early roles enabled him to publish foundational studies, such as examinations of and population , establishing his expertise in heterodox approaches to cultural and .

Senior Positions and Institutional Affiliations

Kaufmann held the position of of Politics at , from 2011 until his resignation in October 2023, after previously serving as a there from 2003 to 2010. During the 2008–2009 academic year, he was a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. In October 2023, Kaufmann was appointed Professor of Politics at the , a role he continues to hold as of 2025. He is also an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a focused on . Additionally, Kaufmann serves as an editor of the academic journal Nations and Nationalism, published by Wiley on behalf of the Association for the Study of Ethnicity and Nationalism. Kaufmann maintains affiliations with organizations promoting viewpoint diversity in academia, including , where he contributes as a scholar critiquing institutional biases. He is also listed as an expert at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a Canadian emphasizing evidence-based policy analysis.

Founding of the Centre for Heterodox Social Science

In October 2023, Eric Kaufmann departed from his position as Professor of Politics at , citing an increasingly monolithic ideological environment that stifled open inquiry in . He accepted an appointment as Professor of Politics at the , a private institution known for its emphasis on free-market principles and , where he simultaneously founded the Centre for Heterodox . The centre's establishment reflected Kaufmann's aim to create a space for research diverging from prevailing progressive orthodoxies in academia, particularly on topics like cultural sacralization, , and . The Centre for Heterodox Social Science was officially launched on February 22, 2024, under Kaufmann's directorship. Its mission centers on advancing "countercultural social science" that prioritizes empirical rigor and viewpoint diversity over conformity to dominant institutional narratives, fostering debate on contentious issues such as ideological bias in higher education and the cultural dynamics of wokeness. Kaufmann, drawing from his expertise in political demography and critiques of left-wing hegemony, positioned the centre as a bulwark against what he describes as a "60-year progressive era" dominating social scientific discourse. Activities of the centre include hosting seminars, publishing research through affiliated platforms like Kaufmann's newsletter, and developing online courses on topics such as the origins of elite ideologies. By emphasizing heterodox approaches—defined as those challenging uncritical acceptance of sacralized cultural norms—the initiative seeks to counteract systemic biases in mainstream academia, where Kaufmann argues on issues like and impacts is often sidelined.

Core Research Areas

Political Demography and Population Dynamics

Kaufmann's work in emphasizes the interplay between population shifts and political outcomes, particularly how , differentials, and ethnic composition changes drive electoral realignments and policy debates. In the 2012 edited volume Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping and National Politics, co-edited with Jack A. Goldstone and Monica Duffy Toft, he analyzes how demographic imbalances—such as youth bulges in developing regions or aging populations in the —exacerbate interstate tensions and intrastate conflicts. He posits that uneven transitions, where certain ethnic or religious groups outpace others in growth, alter relative power balances, often fueling or instability, as seen in cases like post-colonial state formations or pressures on . Central to Kaufmann's analysis is the role of immigration-driven ethnic change in Western politics, detailed in his 2019 book Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities. He argues that sustained high combined with among native-born populations—typically below 1.5 children per woman in and —has reduced white majority shares, from around 80 percent in the U.S. in 1990 to projected mid-40s by mid-century, triggering backlash politics. This demographic pressure, rather than economic grievance alone, underpins the surge in restrictionist , with voting data showing native-born whites without college degrees most sensitive to local ethnic density increases. Kaufmann outlines four adaptive strategies among white majorities facing minority status: "fight" through demands for curbs, "repress" by elites stifling discourse on change, "flight" via residential into whiter enclaves, and "join" by embracing a syncretic, mixed-race over time. Long-term projections in Whiteshift forecast unmixed whites comprising just 40 percent in the and 20 percent in by 2100, with mixed-ancestry groups dominating due to intermarriage rates rising above 10 percent annually in urban areas. He advocates channeling these anxieties into moderate identity expressions, warning that denial risks entrenching extremism, supported by historical parallels like Anglo-American waves.

Religious Demography and Fertility Differentials

Kaufmann's research on religious demography identifies stark fertility differentials between religious and secular populations as a primary driver of future population dynamics. Religious groups, particularly fundamentalists, consistently exhibit total fertility rates (TFR) above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, while secular TFRs in developed societies hover below 1.7, the lowest in recorded history. These patterns hold across faiths and regions, with higher religiosity correlating positively with fertility, independent of socioeconomic factors like education or income. Kaufmann argues that such differentials, sustained by cultural norms emphasizing pro-natalism and family, will lead to the relative growth of religious populations, countering the secularization thesis that predicted religion's inevitable decline through cultural diffusion alone. In the United States, data from 2000-2006 illustrate these gaps, with religious subgroups surpassing the national average TFR of 2.08:
Religious GroupTFR
2.84
Hispanic Catholics2.75
Black Protestants2.35
Fundamentalist Protestants (non-Black)2.13
Non-Hispanic Catholics2.11
No Religion1.66
1.43
Similar disparities appear in , where Muslim TFRs range from 1.57 to 2.44, exceeding those of Protestants (1.21-1.45) and the non-religious (0.86-1.11). emphasizes that fertility varies inversely with doctrinal liberalism: conservative sects retain high birth rates and intergenerational transmission, enabling endogenous growth without reliance on conversion. Orthodox subgroups exemplify this trend. Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews in Israel maintain a TFR of 7.61, dwarfing non-Haredi Jewish rates near 2.0, a gap persisting despite modernization. Closed communities like the Amish and Hutterites achieve TFRs three to four times higher than co-religionist or secular peers, fueled by isolation from secular influences and strict adherence to pro-natalist teachings. In the , finds religiosity and support for Shari'a law predict higher , with devout traditionalists showing a 15-20% premium over nominal believers, akin to Western patterns. Urban Shari'a supporters average 3.2 children versus 1.8 for opponents, while high-fertility nations like and exceed 5 children per woman. These dynamics, contends, portend a more religious global future by 2100, as differential and retention amplify religious shares even in secularizing contexts like .

Immigration, Multiculturalism, and Ethnic Identity

Kaufmann's research on immigration highlights how rapid demographic changes, driven by non-Western immigration, provoke anxiety among ethnic majorities due to perceived threats to cultural continuity and group status rather than purely economic factors. In his 2018 book Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities, he analyzes data from Europe and North America showing that white majorities experience ethnic influxes as a form of loss, correlating with support for populist parties like those led by Donald Trump or European nationalists, independent of income or education levels. He marshals evidence from surveys, such as those indicating that 50-70% of white respondents in Western countries oppose further mass immigration when framed in ethnic terms, attributing this to status threat rather than generalized prejudice. Central to Kaufmann's framework is the concept of "whiteshift," a predicted long-term demographic evolution where ethnic majorities gradually dissolve into a broader, mixed-race "" category through high rates of intermarriage and among immigrants' descendants. He cites fertility differentials and intermarriage statistics—for instance, over 50% of children of European immigrants in identifying as "" within two generations—arguing this process can mitigate majority decline if managed with slower paces to facilitate voluntary . Kaufmann posits that denying this ethnic dimension of exacerbates backlash, as seen in and , and advocates a "cultural " permitting non-prejudiced expressions of white ethnic concerns, such as preferences for cultural similarity in neighborhoods or slower inflows to preserve majority ethos. On multiculturalism, Kaufmann critiques prevailing policies as "asymmetrical," a term he introduced in his 2004 book The Rise and Fall of , wherein ethnic minorities receive institutional support for maintaining distinct —through funding for heritage festivals, , and anti-discrimination norms—while majorities face for similar assertions of heritage or continuity. This imbalance, he argues, fosters resentment among majorities, who comprise 70-90% of populations in Western nations yet are culturally deracinated, contributing to the "sacralization" of minority over majority ones. Drawing on historical cases like the of earlier waves in the U.S., Kaufmann contends that symmetrical approaches—encouraging all groups toward a shared civic while respecting voluntary ethnic maintenance—better sustain social cohesion than state-enforced diversity celebrating only non-majority traits. Kaufmann's work on ethnic emphasizes "ethno-traditional " as a realistic response to pressures, defined by efforts to limit inflows to levels permitting majority cultural dominance through , without excluding immigrants outright. He supports this with quantitative models showing that countries with higher ethnic homogeneity, like , maintain stronger national identities, contrasting with multicultural experiments yielding parallel societies and majority alienation. In empirical studies, such as his analysis of attitudes, he finds that "racial "—preferring demographic stability—is distinct from , with 60% of whites viewing high negatively when linked to ethnic change, yet supporting it if assured of . This perspective challenges narratives equating majority advocacy with , urging policymakers to address causal drivers like gaps—where native whites average 1.5-1.8 children versus 2.5+ for some immigrant groups—to avert irreversible shifts.

Cultural Sacralization, Wokeness, and Ideological Critique

Eric Kaufmann conceptualizes cultural sacralization as the elevation of certain identity categories—particularly , , and sexuality—to a quasi-religious status, where questioning associated disparities or policies becomes morally . In his 2023 book Taboo: How Making Sacred Produced a , he argues that post-1960s liberal taboos on , initially intended to combat overt , evolved into a rigid that sacralizes historical victimhood, fostering a driven more by emotional commitment than empirical evidence. This process, Kaufmann contends, parallels religious dynamics, with "disparity as proof of " functioning as a sacred doctrine that inductive reasoning alone cannot challenge, leading to institutional capture in , , and corporations. Kaufmann applies this framework to wokeness, defining it as "the sacralization of historically disadvantaged , , and groups," which generates a "fuzzy inductive theory" prioritizing over and enforcing through social and professional sanctions. He critiques wokeness not as fringe but as a extension of left-liberalism, where elites—comprising about 20-25% of the in countries—endorse it at rates far exceeding the general public, creating an asymmetry that amplifies its influence despite majority opposition. This elite overrepresentation, Kaufmann notes, stems from cultural rather than purely socioeconomic factors, with surveys showing two-to-one public preference for over "" cultural socialism in places like , , and the . In his ideological critique, Kaufmann identifies wokeness as "cultural socialism," characterized by three pillars: equating statistical disparities with systemic discrimination, justifying speech restrictions to enforce equality, and privileging marginalized identities in policy and discourse. He traces its intellectual origins to a fusion of liberal humanism, expressive , and emerging in the early , which intensified after the civil rights era and accelerated in the via and institutional DEI initiatives. Unlike Marxist focus, this targets cultural power imbalances, encoding Western values as inherently oppressive and demanding "asymmetrical " that tolerates illiberal practices among minorities while scrutinizing majority norms. Kaufmann warns that this sacralization erodes classical liberal principles like free speech and , advocating empirical scrutiny over sacred narratives, as evidenced by his analysis of events like the 2021 Canadian residential school discoveries, where unverified claims fueled disproportionate hysteria. Kaufmann's 2024 book The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism frames the current era as the third wave of cultural-left fervor—the first in the 1960s-70s, the second in the 1990s-2000s—proposing countermeasures like defunding DEI bureaucracies, reforming university hiring to prioritize viewpoint diversity, and using state power to enforce viewpoint neutrality in public institutions. He argues that voluntary restraint or alone cannot counter this "liberal ," given its entrenchment among , and calls for "optimal cultural " that rejects sacralization without abandoning anti-discrimination norms. This plan emphasizes causal , urging policies grounded in demographic and behavioral data over ideological purity, to restore balance amid what he sees as a between and popular sentiment.

Political Views and Public Engagement

Analysis of Academic and Institutional Bias

Kaufmann contends that academia suffers from entrenched left-wing ideological dominance, particularly in the social sciences and , where 70-80% of faculty identify as left-leaning compared to 5-10% on the right, fostering systemic against conservative and heterodox viewpoints. This imbalance manifests in hiring, , and processes, as detailed in his 2021 report Academic Freedom in Crisis, which surveyed over 1,000 academics and graduate students across the , , and . Key findings include 40-45% of and Canadian social science and professors unwilling to hire a , and 33% of academics reluctant to hire a supporter, indicating overt in personnel decisions. The report further reveals discrimination in , with 40-45% of North American academics and one-third of academics admitting to bias against right-leaning grant applications or journal submissions. Such practices contribute to a , evidenced by rates exceeding 90% among Trump-supporting academics when discussing views with colleagues, and over 50% of conservatives altering their or to avoid . Kaufmann links this authoritarianism to younger, far-left faculty, who exhibit 33-50% support for dismissal campaigns against ideological dissenters, higher than among older cohorts, exacerbating a hostile departmental perceived by 70-80% of right-leaning scholars. In response to these institutional failures, Kaufmann established the Centre for Heterodox Social Science at the in 2023 to promote rigorous, non-conformist scholarship challenging progressive orthodoxies. He frames political discrimination as a civil analogous to historical biases against minorities, advocating for external interventions like government audits, dedicated ombudsmen, and legal protections to enforce viewpoint diversity, as proposed in legislation and echoed in his parliamentary submissions. Kaufmann has also critiqued (DEI) programs for relying on methodologically flawed studies that mask anti-meritocratic biases while advancing ideological conformity. In August 2025, he co-authored a manifesto urging the adoption of "Heterodox " and "Critical Studies" to dismantle progressivist overreach in the .

Critiques of Progressive Overreach and Cultural Revolution

Kaufmann contends that progressive ideology has undergone a transformation into "cultural socialism," sacralizing and in a manner that enforces taboos against , akin to religious , thereby initiating a that erodes classical liberal principles of free expression and individual . In his 2023 book : How Making Sacred Produced a , he traces the origins to the , when liberal taboos, exemplified by Lyndon B. Johnson's 1965 speech advocating of results over mere , evolved into mechanisms prioritizing emotional protection for minorities and equal outcomes, often at the expense of merit and open debate. This sacralization fosters fear of the "racist" label, suppressing speech and enforcing conformity through institutional tools like (DEI) programs, which he argues discourage excellence and institutional competence. Empirical evidence for this overreach includes surveys showing a stark elite-mass divide: for instance, a 2020 poll revealed 64% of academics supporting , contrasting with broader public resistance, as seen in backlash events like the 2020 firing of New York Times editor James Bennet for publishing a dissenting . highlights progressive extremism's extension beyond race to suppress cultural and psychological diversity, dismissing majority preferences as discriminatory, which manifests in policies like state-sanctioned racial preferences in hiring and sentencing. In , he identifies this as particularly acute, with world-record levels, erased historical narratives (e.g., "racism tours"), and moral panics such as the 70 church arsons following unverified 2021 grave claims, creating an "anomaly" of unchecked left-liberal dominance unmitigated by public checks present elsewhere in the West. Kaufmann frames this as the "Third Awokening," the latest crest in cyclical waves of cultural-left enthusiasm since the 1960s, where each surge builds on prior consolidations to demand greater ideological conformity, fueled by an anti-majoritarian logic that views woke extremism not as a deviation but as the logical endpoint of unchecked left-liberalism. This overreach, he argues, risks immiseration through reduced freedoms, weakened social cohesion, and institutional capture, with public opinion polls indicating a two-to-one majority opposition in places like Canada, signaling potential for reversal amid populist backlashes. In his 2025 book The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism, he proposes countermeasures including establishing heterodox social science centers to foster viewpoint diversity, promoting "critical woke studies" to dissect ideological excesses empirically, reforming elite institutions to prioritize classical liberalism, and leveraging public sentiment against sacralized orthodoxies. These steps aim to realign governance with ordinary voters, countering the schism between elite progressivism and mass realism without resorting to amoral populism.

Advocacy for Realistic Identity Politics and Demographic Realism

Kaufmann argues that a realistic form of requires acknowledging the ethnic interests of white majorities in Western societies, particularly amid rapid demographic shifts driven by low native fertility and high levels. In Whiteshift (2018), he posits that suppressing expressions of white —such as concerns over cultural or loss of majority status—leads to backlash, including the rise of populist movements, whereas legitimizing moderate ethno-traditionalism can channel these sentiments constructively. He identifies four primary white responses to ethnic change: "fight" via , "repress" through elite denial, "flee" to homogeneous enclaves, and "join" by embracing an expanded white inclusive of partial European ancestry via and intermarriage. Central to this advocacy is the concept of "whiteshift," a gradual evolution where white populations adapt to becoming plural-majority through voluntary mixing, projected to occur over generations rather than abrupt replacement. Kaufmann contends that denying the psychological attachment to ancestral heritage—evident in surveys showing 70-80% of whites in the and expressing some preference for cultural continuity—pathologizes normal in-group preferences, akin to those minorities openly assert without . To mitigate , he recommends policies like reduced volumes to allow time for integration, alongside symbolic recognitions of white heritage, such as heritage preservation or balanced historical narratives that avoid unilateral guilt attribution. Kaufmann's demographic realism underscores the empirical inevitability of ethnic reconfiguration absent policy intervention, citing data like the US Census projection of non-Hispanic whites falling below 50% by the mid-2040s due to net immigration and differential birth rates (1.6 for whites vs. higher for Hispanics and blacks). He critiques progressive overreach for framing such observations as taboo, arguing that causal factors like assortative mating and fertility gaps (e.g., native Europeans at 1.5 children per woman vs. 2.5+ for some immigrant groups) demand pragmatic responses rather than ideological denial. This realism, he maintains, aligns with classical liberalism by prioritizing evidence-based governance over sacralized narratives that equate majority self-preservation with supremacy, as explored in his later critique of "woke" ideology in The Third Awokening (2025). In public engagements, such as interviews, Kaufmann has emphasized that ethnic detachment is unrealistic for most, advocating dialogue that normalizes white interests as a counter to asymmetric identity mobilization.

Major Publications

The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America (2004)

The Rise and Fall of Anglo-America, published in 2004 by , analyzes the erosion of ethnic dominance in the United States from the early twentieth century through the 1960s. Eric Kaufmann posits that this decline stemmed primarily from endogenous cultural and ideological transformations within the elite, including an embrace of liberal universalism and , rather than exogenous factors like mass immigration or military defeat alone. Drawing on U.S. Census Bureau data, Kaufmann highlights demographic shifts: in the 1920s, approximately 65% of Americans traced ancestry to and 98% identified as Protestant, whereas by the early , those of British Protestant descent comprised less than 25% of the population. Central to the book's framework is the concept of "dominant ethnicity," defined as a core group—here, —that maintains cultural, political, and social through strong ethnic boundaries and symbolic attachments, even as it incorporates outsiders via . Kaufmann employs a multidisciplinary , integrating quantitative and composition (e.g., declining WASP representation in universities and corporate boardrooms post-1960s) with qualitative to trace internal schisms. He argues that post-World War II liberal-egalitarian ideologies reduced to abstract principles, diluting ethnic particularism and fostering , as evidenced by rising rates—from under 10% among white Protestants, Catholics, and in the 1960s to higher levels thereafter. The narrative unfolds through historical stages: the initial consolidation of Anglo-Protestant dominance in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries; emerging tensions via progressive and pragmatic intellectual movements that prioritized civic ; and the eventual "triumph of liberal ethnicity," where elite WASPs voluntarily shed ethnic in favor of symbolic, deracinated whiteness. Chapters explore themes such as the resurgence of whiteness as a broader dominant and the cultural implications of liberal , challenging narratives attributing decline solely to non-Anglo influxes like the 2000 Census showing Hispanics surpassing as the largest minority group and non-Hispanic whites at 66% nationally (a minority in states like ). underscores causal realism in ethnic change, emphasizing ideological over deterministic demographic forces.

Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? (2010)

Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century examines how differential fertility rates among religious groups challenge the paradigm, positing that conservative believers will demographically dominate future societies. Published by on 25 March 2010, the book analyzes global data to argue that while erodes traditional through and cultural , high birth rates and retention among fundamentalists enable "endogenous growth sects" to expand via reproduction rather than conversion. Kaufmann presents evidence from the , , and , highlighting groups like American Mormons (fertility rates 20-30% above national averages), communities (total fertility rate around 6-7 children per woman), Ultra-Orthodox Jews in (fertility exceeding 6), and Salafist Muslims in (rates 2.5-3 times secular norms). Secular populations in developed nations typically sustain fertility below (1.5-1.7 children per woman), while these sects maintain 3+ children per woman with minimal , projecting religious shares rising from 16% to potentially 50% or more in Western countries by 2050-2100 under stable trends. The analysis underscores causal mechanisms: correlates inversely with decline, as worldviews resist modernity's and delay childbearing. Kaufmann differentiates "fundamentalist" from nominal believers, noting the former's from secular influences preserves high . Politically, this implies sacralized conflicts over issues like , gender roles, and , potentially eroding accommodations unless secular rebounds or policies intervene. Critics, including secular advocates, question the inevitability by citing historical adaptations (e.g., declining Amish growth via defections) or underplaying endogenous within immigrant groups, though Kaufmann counters with longitudinal data showing persistent differentials. The book's demographic realism prioritizes observable trends over ideological optimism about inevitable , influencing debates on .

Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities (2018)

Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities presents a data-driven of demographic shifts in Western societies, where sustained and sub-replacement fertility among white populations are projected to reduce white majorities below 60 percent by mid-century in countries like the , , and . Kaufmann argues that this "whiteshift"—defined as the gradual fusion of white ethnic majorities with non-white immigrants through intermarriage and —represents an inevitable transition rather than an , as lighter-skinned minorities and mixed-race individuals increasingly self-identify as white, expanding the boundaries of whiteness over generations. Drawing on census data, genetic studies, and surveys from sources such as the General Social Survey and European Social Survey, the book contends that historical precedents, like the assimilation of and into whiteness, demonstrate how ethnic majorities adapt by redefining group boundaries inclusively. The core framework identifies four white responses to ethnic change: "fight," manifested in populist movements resisting rapid demographic transformation; "flee," involving spatial segregation through to homogeneous suburbs or rural areas; "repress," where elites and institutions suppress expressions of white cultural anxiety to avoid ; and "join," the long-term strategy of voluntary where immigrants adopt white norms, enabling a stable, expanded white supermajority. Kaufmann supports this with , including longitudinal data showing that white correlates more strongly with perceived cultural threats (e.g., 70 percent of in 2016 surveys favoring reduced citing identity preservation) than economic factors, challenging narratives that attribute solely to economic grievance or bigotry. He critiques "left-modernism"—an sacralizing minority identities while pathologizing majority ones—as fueling backlash by denying whites the symmetric afforded to others, evidenced by asymmetric policies in and that prioritize immigrant retention over host . Kaufmann advocates managing whiteshift through pragmatic policies that legitimize moderate white identity expression, such as reducing to sustainable levels (e.g., below 0.5 percent net annually) to slow change and allow adaptation time, while promoting via and civic norms rather than that fragments societies. He marshals historical analogies, like the post-1965 U.S. shift from exclusionary to inclusive whiteness, and data indicating that self-reported white identity in the U.S. has grown despite increasing , with 10-15 percent of self-identified whites having non-European ancestry by 2010. The book warns that ignoring "fight" sentiments, as seen in the 2016 vote (52 percent Leave driven by immigration concerns in white working-class areas) and election (gains among non-college whites in states), risks entrenching polarization, proposing instead an "inclusive majority" model where white cultural continuity underpins national cohesion without supremacist overtones. This approach, Kaufmann asserts, aligns with causal demographic realism, prioritizing evidence over moralistic suppression of majority interests.

Taboo: How Making Sacred Led to a (2023)

Taboo: How Making Sacred Produced a presents Kaufmann's analysis of the emergence and spread of what he terms "cultural socialism," an he contends has sacralized and , leading to restrictions on free speech and rational discourse in institutions. Published by Swift Press in the on July 4, 2024, the book draws on survey data, historical analysis, and media trends to argue that this shift originated from liberal s against discussing established in the , which evolved into a rigid enforcing in cultural domains akin to economic 's focus on material . Kaufmann posits that these s, initially aimed at combating overt , were weaponized to suppress dissenting views, creating a where fear of the "racist" label functions as a potent with religious-like enforcement. Kaufmann traces the roots of cultural socialism to post-1960s liberalism's emphasis on fragility, which he argues inadvertently fostered a that prioritizes emotional safety over resilience and open . He supports this with , including analyses of articles showing a sharp increase in references to "," "racist," and "" starting around 2011, correlating with heightened sensitivity among younger cohorts in surveys where progressive views on and intensify with and elite status. Unlike traditional , which targeted economic structures, cultural socialism applies similar leveling impulses to identity categories, viewing Western norms as inherently oppressive hierarchies favoring whites and heterosexuals, thus justifying and policy interventions to achieve representational equity. Kaufmann contends this dynamic creates a schism between cultural elites, who embrace these views, and the broader public, whose more moderate attitudes are sidelined, leading to harms such as stifled scientific inquiry, institutional capture, and counterproductive policies that exacerbate divisions rather than resolve them. The critiques liberalism's vulnerability to leftward , arguing that without mechanisms to enforce viewpoint , reasonable anti-discrimination norms morph into illiberal mandates, as seen in the extension of s to and sexuality. advocates for countermeasures, including state-level interventions to protect free speech and promote cultural resilience over fragility, rejecting libertarian reliance on markets alone to counter institutional entrenchment. He emphasizes that cultural socialism's values-driven nature—rooted in moral intuitions rather than mere grievance—makes it resilient to backlash, necessitating proactive restoration of norms that tolerate discomfort in pursuit of truth and . This framework positions the ideology not as a aberration but as a dominant force in elite spheres, with data indicating its acceleration among those under 30, potentially entrenching a cycle of escalating s unless checked by deliberate and cultural pushback.

The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism (2025)

The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism is a 2024 book by Eric Kaufmann, published in the United States by Bombardier Books on May 13, with an ISBN of 979-8888456354 and spanning approximately 395 pages. The work serves as the American edition counterpart to Kaufmann's UK publication Taboo: How Making Race Sacred Produced a Cultural Revolution, issued by Forum Press, which shares core arguments on the sacralization of identity categories but emphasizes practical countermeasures in the US version. Kaufmann frames contemporary "" ideology as the third major wave of cultural-left radicalism in modern history—the "Third Awokening"—following earlier surges in and , but distinguished by its institutional entrenchment and departure from toward what he terms "cultural socialism." This ideology, he contends, prioritizes equal outcomes, emotional protection for designated minorities, and a moral framework deeming majorities inherently suspect while elevating minority grievances to sacral status, resulting in empirical harms such as rising rates post-2020, declining educational standards evidenced by stagnant test scores amid increased per-pupil spending, uncontrolled border migration contributing to over 10 million encounters since , and heightened where surveys show young adults under 30 are twice as likely to deem conservative speech unacceptable compared to those over 55. The book's core innovation is its outline of a 12-point plan to reverse this trend, advocating proactive use of elected governmental authority—via constitutional mechanisms—to dismantle woke dominance in key institutions like universities, media, and schools, while fostering a return to viewpoint neutrality and merit-based . Kaufmann argues that passive reliance on market forces or organic backlash is insufficient, as the ideology's grip on elite cultural producers ensures its perpetuation among future median voters and workforce leaders; instead, a of conservatives and moderates must prioritize cultural reclamation, challenging sacralized taboos on , , and through evidence-based and interventions. Specific plan elements, drawn from Kaufmann's analysis of institutional capture, include defunding or reforming DEI (diversity, , ) mandates that correlate with lower institutional performance metrics, reinstating free speech protections amid documented incidents exceeding 1,000 annually in recent years, and promoting demographic to counter narratives exaggerating white decline or minority victimhood without empirical basis in or data. Kaufmann substantiates his critique with data from longitudinal surveys like the and US election analyses, showing ideology's asymmetry: while left-leaning individuals exhibit higher "totem taboo" enforcement on issues, right-leaning groups maintain greater tolerance for . He warns that without intervention, this "perverse extension of "—rooted in emotional moral panics rather than reasoned principles—threatens liberal democracy's foundations, urging a "post-woke" realignment where causal policies address root drivers like family breakdown and rather than symbolic equity gestures. The plan's feasibility rests on leveraging recent political shifts, such as gains in state legislatures post-2022 midterms, to implement targeted reforms without overreach.

Additional Scholarly Output

Co-Authored Works and Edited Volumes

edited the volume Rethinking Ethnicity: Majority Groups and Dominant Minorities, published by in 2004, which examines the ethnic identities and cultural dominance of majority groups and dominant minorities in various societies. In 2007, he co-authored The Decline of the Loyal Family: Unionism and Orangeism in with Henry Patterson, published by Manchester University Press, analyzing the historical evolution and challenges facing unionist and institutions in amid demographic and political shifts. Kaufmann co-edited three volumes in 2012. Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping and National Politics, with Jack A. Goldstone and Duffy Toft, published by , explores how demographic trends influence security, politics, and . Nationalism and , co-edited with Robert Schertzer and Eric Taylor Woods, published by , addresses strategies for managing nationalist conflicts through institutional and policy frameworks. Whither the Child?: Causes, Consequences, and Responses to Low Fertility, co-edited with , published by Paradigm Publishers, investigates the drivers of declining birth rates in developed societies, their societal impacts, and potential policy responses.

Key Articles, Policy Papers, and Media Contributions

Kaufmann has produced several policy papers for think tanks, focusing on , , and . In "'Academic Freedom in the UK: Protecting Viewpoint '" (Policy Exchange, August 3, 2020), he analyzes survey data showing self-censorship among UK academics due to progressive norms, recommending institutional reforms to safeguard viewpoint diversity. "'Racial Self-Interest' Is Not Racism" (, March 2017) uses American and British survey evidence to argue that white majorities' preferences for reduced reflect group interests rather than animus, challenging equivalence with anti-white . Another contribution, "Why Values, Not Economics, Hold the Key to the Populist Right" (, 2019), draws on European election data to contend that cultural attitudes, not economic grievance, drive support for parties like the UK's Party. In academic and policy-oriented articles, Kaufmann has addressed on and . His piece "Why Culture Is More Important Than Skills: Understanding British on " (LSE British Politics and Policy blog, January 30, 2018) presents polling data indicating Britons prioritize cultural compatibility over economic skills in immigrant selection, influencing post-Brexit debates. He submitted written to the UK Parliament's Higher Education Committee (2021), critiquing "" as empirically evidenced by faculty discrimination against conservative views, based on original surveys. Kaufmann's media contributions include opinion pieces in prominent outlets. In The New York Times, he argued in "Why Journalists Have More Freedom Than Professors" (May 5, 2023) that media outlets tolerate more than universities, citing internal surveys showing generational divides in . For The Wall Street Journal, "Welcome to the Post-Progressive Political Era" (May 15, 2025) highlighted shifting youth attitudes away from progressive extremism, supported by recent polling trends in the and . He has also written for , such as "How Can We Manage the Process of Western 'Whiteshift'?" (May 24, 2019), proposing multicultural policies to accommodate evolving white ethnic identities amid . These pieces often draw on his datasets to counter narratives of inevitable .

Reception, Controversies, and Legacy

Academic and Intellectual Praise

Kaufmann's Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration, and the Future of White Majorities (2018) has been lauded by philosopher John Gray as a "magisterial survey of the most explosive issue of our age," appreciating its data-driven exploration of , ethnic identity, and political responses in Western societies. Gray's endorsement underscores the book's ambition in addressing how white majorities adapt—or fail to adapt—to increasing ethnic diversity, projecting that mixed-race populations could constitute majorities in countries like the by 2100. Publishers and reviewers have highlighted Whiteshift's empirical foundation, with describing it as a "big, brilliant, ambitious book" that provides meticulous analysis amid the Trump-era debates on and , filling a gap in quantitative, centrist scholarship on and . The work draws on surveys and historical data to outline four strategies—fight, repress, flight, and join—available to white majorities, earning praise for challenging simplistic narratives of or inevitability in ethnic transformation. Kaufmann's : How Making Sacred Led to a (2023) has received intellectual acclaim for its causal analysis of "cultural socialism," with reviewers in outlets like commending its thesis that sacralizing race since the 2010s fueled a left-liberal shift away from toward emotional . The book, supported by of and surveys showing spikes in "" discourse post-2011, is noted for proposing institutional reforms to restore viewpoint , influencing discussions on reversing progressive dominance in academia and . Earlier scholarship, such as The Rise and Fall of (2004, ), has been recognized in intellectual circles for its first-principles dissection of WASP ethnic decline through liberal universalism and cultural openness, providing a framework later echoed in Kaufmann's broader oeuvre on identity persistence. This Harvard-published work's archival depth and theoretical innovation on "soft" vs. "hard" have informed subsequent studies on elite cultural shifts.

Criticisms from Progressive and Mainstream Perspectives

Progressive critics have accused Kaufmann of legitimizing white identity politics under the guise of academic analysis, particularly in Whiteshift (2018), where he posits that white majorities' concerns over demographic decline warrant accommodation to avert populist backlash. Nesrine Malik in The Guardian contended that such recognition of "white ethno-traditionalism" renders white identity politically salient in a way that undermines universal civic dignity, arguing instead for shared hopes transcending ethnic boundaries. Kenan Malik, also in The Guardian, criticized Kaufmann's endorsement of white "racial self-interest" to justify immigration restrictions as accepting identity politics' zero-sum framework, which Malik views as enabling far-right ideologies by reframing racial preferences as benign. In academic discourse, Gavan Titley, writing in Patterns of Prejudice, a journal focused on studies, dismissed Whiteshift's for multicultural as laced with "right-wing and ," yielding no substantive to existing structures but merely sustaining "business as usual." Titley, self-identifying with "left modernist" perspectives, rejected Kaufmann's ethnic framing of whiteness, asserting that some progressives aim not to preserve but to deconstruct the concept altogether, viewing it as an artificial construct rather than a legitimate cultural category. Such critiques often portray Kaufmann's demographic predictions—e.g., white populations falling below 50% in the U.S. by mid-century—as alarmist fearmongering that pathologizes natural diversity while minimizing historical . Mainstream outlets have similarly questioned Kaufmann's distinctions between ethnic conservatism and racism. In a 2019 New Yorker interview, Isaac Chotiner pressed Kaufmann on whether opposition to immigration equates to prejudice, implying his tolerance for "sympathetic" white nationalists risks normalizing extremism amid rising populism. For Taboo (2023), which attributes cultural shifts to the sacralization of race in progressive ideology, left-leaning commentary has framed Kaufmann's thesis as inverting victimhood narratives, excusing resistance to anti-racism by equating taboo-breaking discourse with balanced realism rather than evasion of systemic inequities. These objections, emanating from outlets with established progressive leanings, reflect broader institutional resistance to Kaufmann's challenge of orthodoxy on race and identity.

Debates on Identity Politics and Demographic Predictions

Kaufmann contends that Western demographic trends, including sustained from non-Western sources and among native-born populations, are eroding majorities, with projections indicating s comprising minorities in the United States by 2045 and similar shifts in by mid-century. In Whiteshift (2018), he forecasts a long-term "whiteshift" process, where and cultural adaptation expand the boundaries of to incorporate light-skinned or culturally assimilable immigrants, eventually forming a stable mixed-race majority rather than outright replacement. This prediction draws on historical precedents of ethnic boundary shifts, such as the incorporation of and into , and survey data revealing widespread anxiety over cultural as a driver of populist voting, independent of economic factors. He argues that suppressing expressions of white ethnic identity exacerbates , advocating instead for "moderate" that legitimizes attachment to ancestral as a democratic outlet amid decline, akin to accepted minority identities. identifies four white responses to change—populist resistance ("fight"), segregationist retreat ("flight"), elite-led denial ("repress"), and assimilation into pluralism ("join")—contending that channeling grievances through legitimate channels, such as immigration moderation, prevents . Empirical support includes analyses of voting patterns, where cultural threat perceptions, not socioeconomic status, best predict support for figures like or . Critics from outlets dismiss Kaufmann's framework as normalizing , asserting that white lacks substantive content beyond exclusion and that derives from civic , not ethnic preservation. Such sources, often aligned with institutions exhibiting left-leaning biases in cultural coverage, tend to underemphasize survey evidence of symmetric across groups while framing white equivalents as inherently supremacist. Nationalist responders challenge his optimism, arguing that high-volume, low-assimilation from culturally distant regions precludes benign boundary expansion, rendering whiteshift a for irreversible displacement without robust policy reversals like halted . Kaufmann counters that differentials and selective could stabilize majorities, citing religious conservatives' higher birth rates as a counter-trend to secular decline, though debates persist on whether political will exists to enact such measures amid institutional resistance.

Broader Influence on Policy and Public Discourse

Kaufmann's scholarly work has informed policy debates through affiliations with influential think tanks. As a Senior Fellow at , he co-authored the 2022 report The Political Culture of Young Britain, which analyzed value shifts among younger generations and recommended strategies to address cultural disconnects driving populist support, influencing conservative policy discussions on and . Similarly, as an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute since 2021, Kaufmann has produced reports on culture wars and political discrimination, advocating for legal protections against viewpoint suppression in institutions, which have been referenced in U.S. conservative efforts to reform and corporate diversity practices. In public discourse, Kaufmann's emphasis on cultural values as the primary driver of —rather than economic grievance—has challenged mainstream narratives, appearing in policy papers for organizations like the and media analyses of and Trump-era politics. His 2018 book Whiteshift sparked debates on white identity responses to , prompting responses from both academic and political commentators on immigration restriction's compatibility with . Kaufmann's framework of "cultural socialism" underlying wokeness has further shaped anti-progressive rhetoric, as evidenced in his 2023 Manhattan Institute talks and writings urging conservatives to leverage electoral victories for institutional reforms. Kaufmann's recent output, including the 2025 book The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism, proposes concrete policy measures like viewpoint diversity mandates and reduced administrative bloat in , gaining traction in outlets critiquing institutional capture. These ideas have contributed to a growing consensus among national conservatives for " national conservatism," rejecting asymmetrical while preserving democratic norms, as articulated in his essays for publications like and . His lectures, such as the Civic Discourse Project event on ideological conformity, have directly engaged policymakers and intellectuals in addressing censorship's erosion of .

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